Lettucing Gutted

It really shows how pitiful it's been for cold post Spring 2013 when you see that even the coldest day of "winter" is still warmer than the coldest day of the previous April.

Great forecast Steve thanks! It also looks really promising for a winter that's at least in league with the best post 1987 winters such as 1990/1991, 1995/1996, 2008 through 2011 and 2012/2013. One thing that surprises me though is that the Greenland/Labrador zone has positive 500mb height anomalies in the most +OPI Octobers contrary to the similar +NAO/+AO patterns were the 500mb height anomalies are negative in the same zone. Likewise even in reverse the Greenland/Labrador zone has negative 500mb height anomalies in the most -OPI Octobers contrary to the similar -NAO/-AO patterns were the 500mb height anomalies are positive in the same zone. Another pattern to watch out for that can lead to the "mild Ireland and Scotland/cold England and Wales" scenario is when the Mid Atlantic High allows cold Northeasterlies into England and Wales on the hand but also allows warm Westerlies to return anticyclonically into Scotland and Ireland from the North or Northwest on the other hand. Especially in the cooler months both of these patterns occur during the slow or incomplete toppling of blocking highs from the west to north sector or the slow or incomplete retrogression of blocking highs from the east to south sector. Alternatively and especially in the warmer months this scenario can occur during narrow ridging of the Azores High with either flattened troughing on both sides of the Azores Ridge as in your pattern or just undercutting deep troughs/lows south of the Azores Ridge as in my pattern respectively.

The best example of this in recent times was 1995 - a very warm year and almost the warmest on record that ended with a very cold but unexceptional cetwise December. However a slightly toned down version of this scenario occurred again in 2009.

Sorry Roger but there is nothing worse for me as a cold lover than going for a cool 'un only to be kicked in the teeth by a mild horrorshow. If this December even ends up just remotely cold (a` la 1990) it will stick out in this year like a sore thumb apart from August.

For me the worst lows in all seasons are the Mid-Atlantic Lows. The Icelandic Low and its little Secondary Low friends is also a bad low in all seasons if it bring Mild Zonality or heatwaves but if it brings Cold Zonality it's one of the best. For me the worst high in all seasons is the Azores High and its friend the dreaded Bartlett High aka Eurotrash High. The Scandi/Siberian High is also bad if it brings Continental Tropical air as it always does in summer and even most of the spring and autumn too but if the Scandi/Siberian High brings Continental Polar air it's one of the best. For me the best lows in all seasons are the Scandi Lows and Euro Lows and the Azores Lows and their little friends the Polar Lows and Channel Lows. For me the best high in all seasons is the Arctic High and its friends the Greenland High and Mid-Atlantic High as long as Mild Zonality doesn't return around the latter.

If Hurricane Bertha hadn't taken that unusual diving track we wouldn't even had August below average! The SSTs in the Atlantic were all set for a very warm August.

Rest in pieces 2014! 8.5C

Yes indeed, all periods post June 2013 have been a far cry from January though June 2013 apart from November 2013 and August 2014. Even taking into account the huge background warming it's still unbelievable how a six month period with the most air frosts since 1979 can give way to such an even longer frostless period at the drop of a hat.

If the CET finishes equal to 2011 or warmer than we will have the smallest August to November cooldown on record.

This chart shows an unusual upper level setup for this period. http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/archives/archives.php?day=12&month=11&year=1911&hour=0&map=0&mode=0 It seems that despite a +ve NAO and +ve AO combo (albeit weak) the Jetstream around most of the Northern Hemisphere was southerly tracking (albeit very unstable) at this time with an unusually early extensive pool of very cold arctic air extending from the United States back over the North Pole and back down into Siberia combined with the weak blocking features over High Latitude North Atlantic and Alaska. This suggests to me that a very unstable southerly tracking Jetstream had caused the rapid and very sharp temperature swings. There is also an unusually extensive cold pool in the Mid Latitude North Atlantic with only a Mid Atlantic Low and weak Euro Ridge buffering cold zonality from the UK.

As a die hold cold fan there are just too many for me to list but here are the worst of the worst which have mostly come from this year to add to my earlier list:- January 2014 February 2014 March 2014 April 2014 May 2014 June 2014 July 2014 August 2004 September 2014 October 2014 November 2009 December 2013

If there was a bin that I could dump every forgettable year in, I would throw in the whole of these monotonous mild horror shows:- -September 1987 through November 1990 with the exceptions of October 1987, July through November 1988, April and November 1989, and June and September 1990. -March 1991 through July 1992 with the exceptions of May through June 1991 -November 1992 through June 1993 with the exception of December 1992 -January 1994 through November 1995 with the exceptions of February, May and September 1994 and March 1995 -February 1997 through November 2009 with the exceptions of June and October 1997, April, June, July, October and November 1998, June and December 1999, July and October 2000, January, March, April, June and December 2001, June, July and October 2002, October 2003, July and October 2004, November through December 2005, March 2006, July through August 2007, June, September, October and December 2008 through January 2009 -January through May 2011 -September 2011 through December 2012 with the exceptions of April, June, July, September and October 2012 -and last but not least July 2013 through December 2014 with the exceptions of November 2013 and August 2014

Rest in pieces 'autumn' 2014! 10.5C

I suspect that even the core 3 winter months would have managed at least 1 17c+ CET daily maximum.

14c

So August 2014 looks like being just another cool island in a huge ocean of mildness, another one off cool blip like November 2013?

Whilst all the months of the year have historically given us both remarkable cold and warm CETs looking at http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/mly_cet_mean_sort.txt I have noticed that some have greater ranges between the coldest and warmest record CETs than others. The winter months (especially January) have the biggest differences between record cold and warm months whilst the late spring though early autumn period (especially July, August and September) has the smallest difference between record cold and warm months. Here is the list of months in order of difference between their record cold and warm months:- 1 January 10.6c 2 February 9.8c 3 December 8.9c 4 March 8.2c 5 October 8.0c 6 November 7.8c 7 April 7.1c 8 June 6.7c 9 May 6.6c 10 July, August and September 6.3c The gap of 0.7c between the top 4th (1740 -2.8c) and 5th (1963 -2.1c) coldest Januaries suggests that the top 4 cold Januaries have slightly exaggerated the difference for January with 1795 (-3.1c), 1684 (-3.0c), 1814 (-2.9c) and 1740 (-2.8c) being very cold outliers. The gap of 0.5c between the top 4th (1740 -1.6c) and 5th (1986 -1.1c) coldest Februaries combined with the gap of 0.4c between the top 1st (1779 7.9c) and 2nd (1869 7.5c) warmest Februaries suggests that the top 4 cold Februaries and the top 1st warm February have slightly exaggerated the difference for February with 1947 (-1.9c), 1895 (-1.8c), 1855 (-1.7c) and 1740 (-1.6c) being very cold outliers and 1779 (7.9c) being a very warm outlier. The gap of 0.6c between the top 2nd (1785 1.2c) and 3rd (1748 1.8c) coldest Marches combined with the gap of 0.7c between the top 2nd (1938 9.1c) and 3rd (1997 8.4c) warmest Marches suggests that the top 2 cold Marches and the top 2 warm Marches have slightly exaggerated the difference for March with 1674 (1.0c) and 1785 (1.2c) being very cold outliers and 1938 (9.1c) and 1957 (9.2c) being very warm outliers. The CET record difference for March has also been exaggerated by the erratic 20th and 21st Century Warming Trend which has given us the top 4 warmest Marches which are 1948, 1990 and 2012 (all 8.3c), 1997 (8.4c), 1938 (9.1c) and 1957 (9.2c). In complete contrast to this the very warm March 2012 was followed only a year later by the joint 9th coldest March 2013 (2.7c) which is the coldest month of the whole January 2011 though August 2014 period! March 2013 is even colder than every December in between 1995 and 2010, every January in between 1997 and 2010 and every February post 1996! The gap of 0.5c between the top 1st (1701 and 1837 4.7c) and 2nd (1782 and 1809 5.2c) coldest Aprils combined with the gap of 0.6c between the top 2nd (2007 11.2c) and 3rd (1865 10.6c) warmest Aprils suggests that the top 1 cold Aprils and the top 2 warm Aprils have highly exaggerated the difference for April with 1701 and 1837 (both 4.7c) being very cold outliers and 2007 (11.2c) and 2011 (11.8c) being very warm outliers given to us by the erratic 20th and 21st Century Warming Trend. The gap of 1.2c between the top 1st (1833 15.1c) and 2nd (1848 13.9c) warmest Mays suggests that the top 1 warm May has highly exaggerated the difference for May with 1833 (15.1c) being a very warm outlier. The gap of 0.7c between the top 2nd (1676 18.0c) and 3rd (1826 17.3c) warmest June suggests that the top 2 warm Junes have slightly exaggerated the difference for June with 1676 (18.0c) and 1846 (18.2c) being very warm outliers. Funnily enough the 2nd warmest June occurred only a year after the coldest June on record in 1675 (11.5c)! The gap of 0.7c between the top 2nd (1983 19.5c) and 3rd (1783 18.8c) warmest Julys suggests that the top 2 warm Julys have slightly exaggerated the difference for July with 1983 (19.5c) and 2006 (19.7c) being very warm outliers given to us by the erratic 20th and 21st Century Warming Trend. The CET record difference for August has been highly exaggerated by the erratic 20th and 21st Century Warming Trend which has given us the top 4 warmest Augusts which are 1947 (18.6c), 1975 (18.7c), 1997 (18.9c) and 1995 (19.2c). Funnily enough the coldest August on record in 1912 (12.9c) occurred only a year after the 6th warmest August in 1911 (18.2c)! The coldest September on record of 10.5c is shared by 4 years (1674,1675, 1694 and 1807) with the first 2 being consecutive! No other month of the year has this accolade! In complete contrast to this the warmest September on record 2006 (16.8c) is the warmest month of the whole August 2006 through June 2010 period! September 2006 is even warmer than every June post 1976, every July in between 2006 and 2010 and every August in between 2004 and 2013! The gap of 1.1c between the top 1st (1740 5.3c!) and 2nd (1817 6.4c) coldest Octobers combined with the gap of 0.4c between the top 3rd (1683 and 1692 6.5c) and 4th (1896 6.9c) coldest Octobers suggests that the top 3 cold Octobers combined with the erratic 20th and 21st Century Warming Trend has highly exaggerated the difference for October with 1740 (5.3c!), 1817 (6.4c), 1683 and 1692 (both 6.5c) being very cold outliers. The erratic 20th and 21st Century Warming Trend which has given us the top 5 warmest Octobers which are 1921 (12.8c), 1995 (12.9c), 1969 and 2006 (both 13.0c), 2005 (13.1c) and 2001 (13.3c). The gap of 0.5c between the top 1st (1782 2.3c) and 2nd (1915 2.8c) coldest Novembers combined with the gap of 0.5c between the top 1st (1994 10.1c) and 2nd (2011 9.6c) warmest Novembers suggests that the top 1 cold November and the top 1 warm November have highly exaggerated the difference for November with 1782 (2.3c) being a very cold outlier and 1994 (10.1c) being a very warm outlier. The top warmest Novembers 2011 (9.6c) and 1994 (10.1c) have also been given to us by the erratic 20th and 21st Century Warming Trend. The joint 7th coldest November 1919 (3.3c) is the coldest month of the whole March 1919 though October 1923 period! November 1919 is even colder than every December in between 1917 and 1925, every January in between 1919 and 1929, every February in between 1919 and 1924 and every March in between 1917 and 1955! In complete contrast to this the joint 11th warmest November 1978 (8.5c) was followed by the 19th coldest winter 1978-1979 (1.57c) whilst the joint 9th warmest November 2009 (8.7c) was followed by the joint 35th coldest winter 2009-2010 (2.43c)! The gap of 0.5c between the top 5th (1874 -0.2c) and 6th (1784 and 1981 0.3c) coldest Decembers combined with the gap of 0.4c between the top 1st (1934 and 1974 8.1c!) and 2nd (1852 7.7c) warmest Decembers suggests that the top 5 cold Decembers and the top 1 warm Decembers have slightly exaggerated the difference for December with 1890 (-0.8c), 2010 (-0.7c), 1676 (-0.5c), 1788, 1796 and 1878 (-0.3c) and 1874 (-0.2c) being very cold outliers and 1934 and 1974 (both 8.1c!) being very warm outliers given to us by the erratic 20th and 21st Century Warming Trend. The 2nd coldest December on record 2010 (-0.7c) was not just colder than every December after 1890 but it was even colder than every January after 1979 and every February after 1986! In complete contrast to this December 2010 was followed by the 2nd warmest year on record 2011 (10.70c! just 5 years after 2006's 10.82c!), the warmest spring on record 2011 (10.23c), the warmest April on record 2011 (11.8c! only 4 years after 2007's 11.2c!), the warmest late winter though late spring period on record (February though May 2011 9.28c), the 2nd warmest autumn on record 2011 (12.43c! just 5 years after 2006's 12.63c!) and the 2nd warmest November on record 2011 (9.6c)! January and October seem to have some cold outliers but no warm outliers. February, March, April, November and December have both cold and warm outliers. May, June and July seem to have warm outliers but no cold outliers. August and September seem to have neither warm or cold outliers.

It's amazing to think that in both cases a storm originating in the deep tropics (Hurricane Charley in August 1986 and Hurricane Bertha in August 2014) combing with a cold deep upper level trough was able to deliver sub-Arctic summer conditions to the UK. In addition to that very cold -3.4c min in Kilbrace on the Bank Holiday Monday I remember reading on Trevor Harley's website that maxima didn't rise above 10c under that torrential rain in a lot of places on that same day. By the way Richard2901 I'm surprised the very warm August 1995 recorded the coldest night in all the Augusts in between 1986 and 2014.

Bearing in mind that on average Ireland is even more Maritime than the rest of the UK with Continental Polar and Continental Tropical airmasses even more moderated than the UK I consider minima like -18.7C for winter and -1.9C for summer very remarkable for Northern Ireland. Again considering Ireland's strong Maritime influences it is also remarkable that at least in recent years Ireland seems to have avoided the infamous cloud and/or wind issues which have all too often scuppered special low minima in the UK in recent years even in otherwise potent cold synoptics. This quirky paradox again shows how very remarkable even a very Maritime climate like Ireland can be.

In terms of anomaly that is the coldest forecast since February 2014.

That's music to my ears BFTP

17C Despite some promising signs the mild train isn't going to stop afterall...

That setup has a range of both good and bad points for winter and cold fans. Good Points:- -The warm pool around Labrador and Greenland would aid in Greenland and High Mid Latitude North Atlantic Blocking and a Negative Arctic Oscillation Phase (AO) and a Negative North Atlantic Oscillation Phase (NAO) and a Southerly Tracking Jetstream. -The warm pool in the Extra-Tropical Northwest Pacific would likewise aid in Bering Sea Blocking and a Negative Pacific Decadal Oscillation Phase (PDO) and a Positive Pacific North America Pattern Phase (PNA), -AO, -NAO and a Southerly Tracking Jetstream. -The Tropical Pacific looks like a mixture of both weak La Nina cool pools and weak El Nino warm pools which means there should be less deep Tropical Pacific forcing on the Jetstream to go north with the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) Phase being near neutral which also aids in a -PDO, +PNA, -AO and -NAO. -The cold pool in the Mid Subtropical North Atlantic allied to the above Blocking will aid in a -AO, -NAO and a Southerly Tracking Jetstream. Bad Points:- -The warm pool off the Eastern Seaboard of Newfoundland and USA will aid in a -PNA, +AO, +NAO and a Northerly Tracking Jetstream. -The warm pool in the Extra-Tropical Northeast Pacific will aid in a +PDO, -PNA, +AO, +NAO and a Northerly Tracking Jetstream. -The warm pool in the High Latitude Northeast Atlantic will aid in a +AO, +NAO and a Northerly Tracking Jetstream via a Euro and Scandi Ridge. This warm pool will also heavily modify any Northerly Blasts crossing it decreasing their potency and increasing marginality of any snow events.

My dream seasons:- Summer 1725 (CETs June 12.2C July 13.8C August 13.3C!) Autumn 1676 (CETs September 12.0C October 7.0C November 3.5C! Interestingly and bizarrely the coldest autumn on record in 1676 followed one of the hottest summers on record and the hottest summer at that time until 1781!) Winter 1683/1684 (CETs December 0.5C January -3.0C February -1.0C!) Spring 1837 (CETs March 2.3C April 4.7C May 9.9C!) Annual CET 6.27C! My nightmare seasons:- Summer 1976 (CETs June 17.0C July 18.7C August 17.6C!) Autumn 2006 (CETs September 16.8C October 13.0C November 8.1C!) Winter 1868/1869 (CETs December 7.2C January 5.6C February 7.5C!) Spring 2011 (CETs March 6.7C April 11.8C May 12.2C! Interestingly and bizarrely this mild horror show followed the second coldest December on record!) Annual CET 11.85C!

Post Spring 2013 every season has now become my least favorite. Yeah he's been converted!