Gavin P
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Posts posted by Gavin P
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North Easterly Blast seems to think if you have a maxima of 16c and its overcast all day and its poaring with rain all day, but the minima holds up at around 13c so the overall temperature comes out close to normal, that constitutes a "normal" summers day.
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I have to warn you guys, Piers is apparently going for a very hot/dry summer starting with a heatwave this weekend. In my experiance thats usually the kiss of death for any forecast.
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No one went into panic on here during December when the severe cold was making a massive impact on the fragile UK economy, only just out of recession. And the damage went on as soon as the cold hit - unlike drought which may hit potentially a few months down the line if thing don't change in the mean time. So why the panic?
Perhaps because a lot of places are already in quite a significant drought (granted it partly goes back to the pattern we had in the winter that delivered that tremendously cold December) and the longer it goes on the more people can see a looming agricultural disaster if nothing else.
We are a long way off from seeing the reservoirs drying up, so my main concern isnt for the nations water supply (yet) but its really with farmers who are having a hard time and will experiance a terrible crisis if this forecast is correct.
And of course if all our vegetables die due to lack of water that will hit prices in the shops and create an even bigger inflation problem.
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Haaa, Youve always got to remember that 1976 brought such drought conditions because the fact that Summer 1975 was also hot and dry!!!
Indeed. 1976 came at the end of two very dry winters (74-75 and 75-76) and a hot summer (75) So the drought was already very well established and critical by the time summer 76 started.
However, we have had a couple of very dry years. 2009 and 2010 had many dry months and only occasional wet months.
Certainly I can imagine if this summer turns out as GP predicts we will be in a very serious situation by the end of August (in much of England) But probably (hopefully) not suffering the disaster of 1976 - Although agriculture will be devastated and this can only increase inflation on food at exactly the wrong time.
Were we then to go on to have another dry autumn/winter followed by another hot/drought summer in 2012, then I could imgaine the famous 1976 stand pipe scenes being revisited in 2012 - But thats a LOT of if's and highly unlikely (but of course not impossible by any means) Thats why I asked GP about the expected pattern this autumn - Assuming we do have a hot and dry summer it will be absolutely vital for the infrastructure of the country to get a wet autumn and winter.
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Not GP, but QBO data indicates a strengthening -QBO during Autumn and into winter which generally correlates to a wetter Autumn.
Thanks SB.
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GP, I know you don't usually like looking ahead to the season beyond, but do you see any relief to the drought in the autumn? 1976 had a very wet autumn for instance. 1995 also had a wet September and November.
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Catastrophic for British agriculture and anybody that needs to buy food and doesn't have a large budget.
Great for the tourist industry.
You pays your money you take your choice.
Cheers GP.
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Dont want to go too ahead of myself or too off topic here but how dry were the Springs of 1976 and 1995? Is 2011 drier, on par etc???
The spring of 1976 was very dry. What made the summer of 1976 so severe was that it came at the end of an extended dry period. The spring and summer of 1975 was very dry. Autumn 1975 was dry (after a wet September) and the winter of 75-76 was very dry. So by the time we got to summer 1976 we were already having an incredible drought.
1995 was differant because that summer came after quite a very wet period. Summer 1992 through to winter 94-95 had a lot of wet months and indeed January and February 1995 were exceptionally wet. Spring 1995 was dry, but not as dry as spring 1976 and 2011.
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Surely a little early to be making such a statement...
The statement is based in GP's prediction. A 1976 or 1995 type summer would be a catastrophe for British agriculture, particularly after a spring drought like we're currently experiancing.
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Nope.
Absence of the Azores ridge yes, but mid latitude ridges over western Europe set to dominate. I have both 1976 and 1995 in my analogue package.
Look like we're going to suffer the same fate as Moscow this year then.... A catatastrophe is on the way for British agriculture.
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I'm changing my guess (no, really?) and going for 13.5
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17.1
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Many thanks GP.
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The impression I get is that the weather "seems" to have gone a bit extreme in the last 5 years, rainfall, sunshine, temperatures. Specific patterns seem to be enhanced and prolonged such as last year with that Greenland block or 2006 with the persistent southerly flows.
Yeah, the jet stream definately seems to be getting stuck for several months at a time. As you rightly identify we had that extraordinary period from 2006 to 2007 with CET's tumbling left, right and centre. Then we had the summer floods in 2007. Then they cold periods in 2010. Meanwhile in 2010 there was also the Russian heatwave. Europe definately seems to have entered an extreme period of weather.
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Other worrying months in the CET series;
February 1779 7.9c (4.1c above normal)
May 1833 15.1c (3.9c above normal) (second highest 1848 13.9c)
June 1846 18.2c (4.0c above normal)
Did any of those months come just four years after the previous record holder, which was itself over half a degree above the previous record?
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Did you view December in the same way?
December didn't break the CET record, though it did break some local records in Ireland I think?. Look, I'm not saying its concering to have a record breaking month - The weather is always breaking new ground - Its the amount by which we're going to beat April 2007 (which was itself 0.5c above the previous record holder - a large amount by which to break a monthly record) that I'm concerned about. Of course, this could be just a freak one off, but what if this is the start of another period of extreme heat like we saw from 2006 to 2007, only even more intense than that period?
And it's forecast to keep getting warmer as the week goes on.
I don't think the record will be smashed. But it will be broken.
Indeed. The heat is going to become even more intense over the next few days, which is why I think an April CET of 12c looks on the cards. 12.0 would be 0.8c above the previous record and would surely consitute "smashing" the record in anybodys book?
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Concerning? Enjoy it.
Personally I don't find any enjoyment in seeing the climate I know and love being replaced by something else. I mean, theres having a nice April, with a CET of say 10c. But this April, with a CET probably getting to 12c or above, is just crazy, ridiculous, absurd, worrying, etc...
To put this another way, if July was to show as big a deviation from the previous record holder (July 2006) as April 2011 is going to show from April 2007, we would be looking at a July CET getting on for 21c!!!!!!!!! People don't seem to realise how outrageous this April is.
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What I find scary about this April though, is that it looks like its going to be SO far above the previous record.
I mean, all months (and days) have a range from cold to warm and of course within that range records are broken all the time, but its very, very unusual for a month to break the record by over 1c above (or below) the previous record holder- And remember April 2007 was already a fairly substantial deviation from the previous record holder in April 1865. This personally, is what I find very concerning about the extraordinary April 2011.
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Gavin looking at GFS 00Z FI the high looks like retrogressing northwards with southerly tracking lows if this continued into the summer no worries about hosepipe bans, dont know about you but i am feeling winter 2011/12 could be a very cold one
Good heavens, I've not even started to think about next winter yet. It would be quite something to pull off a fourth cold winter though....
GP, assuming this anticyclonic spell ever breaks down, what teleconnections should we be looking for to hint at a fundamental shift in the pattern?
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Going to be a hell of a lot of water shortage
I think most places should be OK for this summer. Yes, they'll be hosepipe bans and obviously it'll have a disasterous effect on agriculture, but as far as people keeping their water supply goes, we should be OK this year.
Now, if we were to repeat the 75/76 pattern and had a dry autumn/winter 11/12 followed by another intense heatwave and drought through summer 2012, then next year would be looking far more serious. That would take quite some doing, though.
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Looks like we're heading for a summer 1975/1976 type post La Nina pattern then GP?
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The first half of April 1981 was the warmest for 20 years. The second half was the coldest on record;
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Thanks Kevin.
March is frequently one of the driest months of the year, so this must have been quite surprising.
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It's because there is more to how "good" a summer month is perceived to be than mean temperature.
Indeed. Its quite possible in summer to have a "warm" daily CET with maxima of 20c and minima of 15c, but thats no good to anyone if its poaring with rain and overcast all day.
The Cold June Of 1991
in Historic Weather
Posted · Edited by Gavin P
The odd thing about June 1991 was that it came right in the middle of an extended drought which started at the end of 1988 and didn't end until the summer of 1992.