Gavin P
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Posts posted by Gavin P
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Very good forecast. Great piece of work.
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Thanks John.
Well, on the CFS point, I was really talking about the entire Northern Hemisphere apparently not having a positive or negative height anomaly anywhere. Of course its possibe that the CFS thought the whole northern hemipshere would be "average" but I do remain quite suspicious of the CFS model. I just don't find it that stable if you know what I mean.
On past - and + NAO forecasts and how they verified, the Met Office had/has a fantastic graph going back some 20 years or more with their NAO predictions and verification included. I really, really wanted to include it in the video as I felt it would be really useful, but when I contacted the Office to try and get the link to the page they told me I'd have to pay £75+VAT for the information.
Anyway, I'd love to do more on the NAO and May SST connection (I couldn't do anymore in this video as my voice was about to give out at any moment, lol) so watch this space.
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Thanks guys.
As I say at the end of the video, there are a LOT of differant things you can look at in terms of trying to get a winter forecast together (Siberian snow cover, solar, ENSO, etc..) and most of them don't even begin to to come on to the radar until September at the earliest.
The NAO forecast from May's Atlantic SST anomalies is just one part of the puzzle (though the Met Office clearly believed/believe that its quite an important part as aside from their dynamic model this seemed to be their main methodolgy in terms of making winter forecast predictions)
So yes, all to play for is a fair description.
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Hey guys,
It's that time of year again when we can use May's Atlantic Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies to attempt to come up with a possible NAO forecast for the subsequent winter.
This years Atlantic temperature anomaly points towards a Positive NAO for winter 2012/2013!
Find out why and how in my video presentation, which you can see here:
http://gavsweathervids.com (just for today)
And here: http://gavsweathervi...m/seasonal.html
The closest match I could find to May 2012's Atlantic SST anomalies was May 2000, which is interesting because the Met Office forecast a strongly positive NAO for winter 2000/2001, but we actually ended up with a slightly negative NAO in the end (probably because of the unusual autumn weather pattern we had in 2000)
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Useful video by Gavin P (check out his site for his latest vids: http://gavsweathervids.com/) about the models for the next two weeks.
Plus today's and tomorrow's thundery potential. Indeed, as is shown on the models, such as the 0Z ECMWF, those Lows out to the West seem eager to spring back into action increasing the chanes of disturbed weather for most (though changes regarding the Lows' positions could still occur).Hey, thanks for posting Alex.
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Here's my new historic video for Bank Holiday Monday:
From Heat To Snow - May Day Weekend 1997: http://gavsweathervi...historical.html
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Thanks Damian.
Yes, synoptics were very unusual and unique.
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Here we go then: Extreme Blizzard April 1981: http://gavsweathervids.com/historical.html
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Thanks for the feedback Damian.
I WILL do the late April snowstorm at some point, but it really depends what else is going on at the end of April. If theres interesting weather I might not have time and in that case my next one would be the May Day holiday weekend.
But April 1981 WILL happen sooner or later.
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are you two related?
It is a bit like an echo isn't it?
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Video can now be found on my historic page: http://gavsweathervids.com/historical.html
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No problem Gavin. Glad you liked.
Did you enjoy the little tease about summer 1983 at the end.
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Hey folks,
Hope the mods don't mind if I create this thread to post all my historical videos in as and when I do them? It will save me keep posting individual threads each time I do a video and cluttering up the forum.
Todays Bank Holiday Monday historical vid is The Snowy Easter Of 1983: http://gavsweathervids.com/
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Please find video on my historical page now;
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To mark the 60th anniversary of this amazing spring blizzard I've done a video looking at how it happened.
Check it out;
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My latest historical video
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Must admit im now following this thread to see how much rainfall is likely through spring. What the drought stricken areas don't want is any form of blocking developing.
Blocking doesn't necessarily mean dry. Remember what happened in April 1998;
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/archive/ra/1998/Rrea00119980409.gif
As always it depends where the blocking is and how the jet stream responds to that blocking.
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Hey NetWeather, thought you might want to have a look at my latest YouTube video looking at the Ice Storm in January 1940;
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Easily the best summer of my life and I'm not just talking about the weather.
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Is this the blocking us coldies have been searching for?
It could be the start of it. As already stated, the block isn't really there yet, but the PV is splitting, so you would hope a proper blocking high would fill the space.
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Provisionally; 3.5. Cold and mild waxing and waning, but a overall a milder first half and a cooler later period.
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A very wet spring and autumn with a dry and warm summer would be nice.
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How accurate have these forecasts been out of Beijing? Hard to have a great deal of confidence when they can't even get todays date correct...22nd??
For some reason they are always dated 22nd of the month.
As for reliability, I've not been looking at this model long enough to say, but I do prefer this model and the JAMSTEC model to CFS and ECM, personally.
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Indeed Gav, it felt lonely putting that winter forecast together in October and November with the CFS continually going for above average.
However, I'm going to score a minor victory over the CFS which had below average temps for December and I suspect the slightly above is going to verify. With regards to the ECM monthlies, people have short memories here - it went for blocked November until it realised at the last moment that this wasn't going to happen.
There are other seasonal range models however - UKMO tending to agree with the winter forecast pressure pattern for January and February so it would be wrong to paint this as a models vs non model analysis. Be interesting what JMA and Beijing come up with when they update.
The MJO composites suggest low MJO activity for the next 30 days or so, which is very much backed up by the spread of NWP ensemmble products so change isn't going to come that way with tropical forcing looking very weak and incoherent (which would be a good signal for falling angular momentum in due course). A monster MJO wave in February is however a definate possibility.
Beijing has actually updated and is going for largely blocked weather, though I'm not sure the blocks are in quite the right position for cold?
Gavin's Week Ahead Forecast (2.6.12)
in Spring Weather Discussion
Posted · Edited by Gavin P
Hello everyone,
Thought you might like to check out my week ahead forecast.
My video version here: http://gavsweathervids.com/
and here: http://gavsweathervi.../forecasts.html
The written version is here: http://gavsweathervi...htsmusings.html
I do a week ahead forecast every Saturday and a 5 day forecast on a Wednesday. In between I do european, events, musings, monthly and seasonal outlooks and ocasionally ENSO related stuff as well.
Thanks a lot.