Gavin P
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Posts posted by Gavin P
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Going for 6.0 please.
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Certainly if the high pressure GFS keeps trying to build in FI comes off we could be looking at a pretty cold period from week two onwards.
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lol at what PWS have posted in the PWS comment
Wintry Conditions
Winter may well show its hand over the mountains of Scotland during the first week of November, but there are still no indications as of yet to point to a November where we are knee deep in snow. Late November and during the opening weeks of December still look firm candidates to see something of a wintry scenario but apart from that, mild and wet conditions will continue to dominate. It's quite maddening to think that there is perhaps something we haven't seen here at PWS to suggest otherwise?
Jonathan Powell
Senior Weather Forecaster
Sunday October 30th 2011
Another pop at James Madden for what he said November would bring.
In my view, PWS have got FAR too much to say for themselves.
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Just took a look at Stuarts presentation. Awesome piece of work. Well done.
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No it isn't impossible for a snowless winter to occur, it just hasn't occurred yet.
I remember 91-92 as an entirely snowless winter here.
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The distinct line in a cloud that usually forms as a cold front is moving through.
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Heres plenty of information on the 1833/1834 eruption of Laki,
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Laki
The CET for July 1833 was 18.8 - One of the hottest months on record. Many people died across Europe from poisionous sulpher clouds and the sky turned red with a deadly haze then hanging over the UK and Europe until autumn.
Then in winter the weather across Europe and North America became severely cold and the climate stayed extreme for the next decade (some actually believe that the seeds of the French revolution were sowed by the eruption of Laki and the resultant extreme weather leading to famines and poverty)
Icelandic volcanos do very much have the power the effect our weather in the UK and Europe and even through the northern hemipshere. They probably can't effect the entire planet, like an equatorial volcano can, but they shouldn't be underestimated.
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Thanks very much Roger.
Sounds like a very interesting winter with something for everybody. January obviously being the highlight for cold/snow lovers.
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^^^^^^^^^^
That looks remarkably similar to Rogers forecast.
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Thanks Roger.
Sounds an interesting winter to say the least.
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According to The Sunday Times:
"The warning (of another cold winter) coincides with research from the Met Office suggesting that Europe could be facing a return of the "little ice age" that gripped Britain 300 years ago, causing decades of bitter winters.
The prediction, to be published in Nature is based on observations showing a slight fall in the sun's emissions of utraviolet radiation, which over a long period may trigger mini ice ages in Europe."
Obviously we need to wait until we see the piece in Nature, but this does look like a significant annoucement may be coming from the Met Office in due course.
(Incidentally, theres no link because Sunday Times online content is behind a paywall. I copied this directly from the copy of the Sunday Times I bought this morning)
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I'd so laugh if we get the mildest winter even then there would be a lot of egg on faces and a lot of wasted grit. I've got to say the amount of scare mongering amongst the media has reached all new levels, far greater than the failed heatwave of 2009. A big freeze within weeks is just comical.
To be fair, even if the grit stockpiles aren't used this winter, they will almost certainly be needed in the coming years as solar activity probably becomes extremely weak or even non existent in the second half of the decade...
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At times February 1947 actually had high pressure stretching fron Russia to Greenland to Canada.
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Increasing my guess to 11.0, thanks.
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I suspect what Jim is getting at is that the pattern shift that we've all flagged on here as taking place since 2007/2008 is still very much in place. I.E. generally cool summers and cold winters. Which doesn't mean that the coming winter WILL be cold, but does mean the risk of another negative NAO/AO winter is greater than in the 90's or the early 00's.
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Nice to see GP back posting again.
Sounds like this winter might turn out more like 54/55 or 55/56 (the 1950's seem like the best overall match to the current period with regards to the PDO, AMO and La Nina) with any cold more in the mid to later part of winter with a milder early period?
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10.0 thanks.
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At the moment I think we will see an Indian Summer and very little in the way of wintryness.
However I believe this could be good for a cold and snowy weather. Leave the best of the mild and warm weather in October (and November) rather than the winter months. Also, this should keep the north sea pretty warm and I believe (like previous winters) that we will see a notable cold spell following a period of an active atlantic/mild spell. With the North Sea quite warm, under a strong easterly wind, this should create some amazing snowfalls and in my opinion, if we are going to have a severe cold spell this winter then it would better take place between late November and Late December to get the really big snowfalls.
The autumn of 1978 didn't see so much as a frost until it suddenly turned exceptionally cold in the last five days of November.
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Sounds an fairly exciting end to the year.
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I ended up with over 20cm of snow in February 2009, the greatest snowfall depth since 1991.
Though I was extremely lucky because I was right on the boundry line (went roughly from Bristol to the Wash) between the cold air to the north and the slightly less cold air to the south-east and as a result I managed to achive three seperate heavy snow events in the space of four days - One of those situations where the battle lines happened to set up right over my house.
So for snow, 2008/2009 easily beats 2009/2010 and 2010/2011, though clearly those later two winters were much colder.
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"I did mention to a friend in a chat section of one forum that it wouldn't surprise me if winter came a bit earlier than last year, but I'm not convinced it will dig in for a long, furious assault. It may just come and go early."
LOL! Thanks.
I'm not sure Roger would want us to read too much into that at this stage. -
I like your optimism.
However Roger J Smith's initial thoughts for this winter are very disappointing if you are a snow addict. He seems to think Winter will make an early appearance this year, but he doesn't foresee any sustained cold taking hold. In fact he seems to suggest that we're in for a normal winter, once the early cold spell is over. As much as i'd like him to be wrong, he was spot on about the early start to Winter 2010/11.
Interesting. Can you point me towards Rogers thoughts please?
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If this current pattern doesn't change. We will be in for a VERY mild winter indeed. Not good. I hope it changes, but I've been hoping it will change all Summer, it just isn't happening it seems.
Can anyone tell me if there is any change in the 500mb charts?
Also, I think it's time we started a thread for Winter. That's all most people are interested in, plus it is now beyond summer.
Well given this northerly displaced Azores High has been a semi-permanant feature since May, I think its very unlikely to last in its present form all the way through autumn and winter. That would be like 9 months for one singularity. Would be very unusual to say the least.
No, the synoptic will change over the next few months - For good or ill...
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LOL! Well, the high pressure to the extreme north-east is indeed the start of the Siberian High forming. The high in the Atlantic is simply the displaced Azores High which has been sitting roughly in that position all summer.
Snow And Ice In The Northern Hemisphere 2011/12
in Spring Weather Discussion
Posted · Edited by Gavin P
We should see snow cover developing across western Russia next week as cold air begins to pool around the back of the scandi/euro high.