Gavin P

http://www.climate-uk.com Manley currently 1c below average!

LOL! It was a well below average month (in the CET zone) whatever spin the Met Office try and put on it. So rejoice (if you like cool/cold) and be happy. They don't come along very often these days.

The thing is though, we've just had a well below average month, without any particuarly cold synoptics being involved. In my view, SST's are quite condusive to mid Atlantic blocking and I wouldn't be at all surprised to see a week or two of persistent northerly winds through this August. So despite the warm start, I still think another pretty cool month is quite possible.

I'm surprised nobody's gone under 15c actaully.

When you look back through the CET series, we often seem to go through little mini periods when a month can have four or five that are above or below average. We had a number of cold Decembers in the 90's, I seem to remember where-as in the 80's, we had several mild Decembers on the bounce. In the 70's I think we had about 6 above average February's on the trot and in the 60's there was a string of warm June's and so it goes on. So, the fact we're having a run of warm June's and frequently cool July's is just weather, IMO and could easily switch around over the next decade. The on month that I do think is unqiue is September. Throughout the CET series, I don't think theres ever been such of run of exceptional Septembers?

Agree Kold. I suspect this next week or two will be do or die time for salvaging something out of this summer. If the Azores High can't get a real foot-hold over the next week or so, I suspect its opportunity will be lost, possibly for the rest of August....

Hopefully, by winter, La Nina will be weakening (if it ever gets thats strong, of course)

I think it'll be very stable now. 15.3 looks to be the lowest to me (which it'll be tomorrow) It won't be any higher than 15.6 by months end, IMO.

The CET is actually 15.38, with another fiarly cool afternoon in the CET zone, so I don't think we're too far away from Stu's 15.2 prediction.

Just for a change!

Everything you need to know can be found at this excellent site; http://www.climate-uk.com

I can't see July's CET coming in at 16.0.

Well, at this point I see little sign of a notable change. I think we will see a few more ridges being thrown up from the Azores High but there will still be lots of wet spells as well. That southerly tracking jet will still be troublesome on and off through August. Late in the month high pressure may build in the mid Atlantic, drying things out, but also giving some pretty cold temps, with frost possible in Northern Scotland. So, at this very early point, my CET punt is; 15.0 With; Rainfall 150% Sunshine 80% Rounding off a very poor summer indeed.

Well its pretty cold in the CET zone just now....

I can't see anything like an outstandingly hot month The overall pattern that has delivered us this unsettled May-July period looks pretty stable to me. I can't see any fundamental changes to the pattern taking place, and I think the southerly tracking jet, and frequent low pressure systems flattening what ridges do build is pretty well set. That said, we *may* see more ridges than in July, and thats why I'm holding off giving a CET prediction for the mo.

Well, we shouldn't be that surprised. Like I pointed out at the beginning of this thread, over the last ten years, July is one of the most likely months to be below average.

Good grief thisis early. I think I'll wait and see how low July ends up, before I have a punt on August. I will just say though, that anybody hoping the synoptic's will simply slot into place, and summer weather will suddenly arrive, could well be disappointed.

"We're not. We're using the last completed decade: 1971-2000. That's what most of the Met O use, and certainly in their published stats." Why, "most" and not "all?" And if Hadley are the keepers of the CET and Hadley still use 61-90, then aren't all current CET's being compared against 61-90 and not 71-00? "Let's stop the silly conspiracy theory nonsense. Nothing 'suspicious' about it at all." I happen to agree with you. It probably isn't a conspiracy. So, shall we call it complete and total incompetence instead?

What about 1040-1070?

A far more representative 30 year average, for the current UK climate, may be 1911-1940. If we're picking and choosing which 30 year average we're going to use, why don't we use that one? I'm not one for conspiracy theory's, but even I've got to admit that using 61-90 in 2007 is looking increasingly suspicious.

LOL! So, the Met Office use 71-00 and Hadley (which is part of the Met Office?) still use 61-90.... What a daft situation.

Yeah, I was meaning more professional forecasting agencies. Why does the Met Office, for instance, still mention and use 61-90? They actually started the change over to 71-00 in 2005, yet still 61-90 is alive and well on the Met Office site? Why? Philip Eden changed over to 71-00 on New Years Day 2001, I believe? Whilst I know it will take the Met longer than that to change over, i still can't see any possible reason why in 2007 they should still have not consigned 61-90 to the hirsty books.

In 2007, I really have no idea why people talk about 61-90. This 30 year average should have been consigned to the history books years ago.

Keep in mind DR, that the CET zone is generally a little bit north and west of Northamptonshire (hence the fact there was no rise yesterday, when Norhants had a warm night on Saturday night and a humid day on Sunday) I'll be surprised, if the CET is much higher than 15.6 or 15.7 by Wednesday/Thursday.

Yeah, I meant cranking up as in becmong stormy, with gales and severe gales a lot earlier than we've been used to in many recent autumns. Its funny you mention temperatures not being colder than average, Blast From The Past, I've got a suspicion that October and November could be pretty cold, with the Greeny High putting in a number of special guest apperances.... It appears to me, we may be going to experaince something of a "toned down" version of 1993?