Gavin P

I understand this. What I'm saying is I think AGW(man-made) warming is a big and growing cause of warming, but that there are natural (not man-made) warming cycles at play as well and that ultimately, whilst these natural cycles that are causing European Warming may weaken to some degree and allow us to enter somewhat of a less hot phase, the man-made warming is of course (unless CO2 is reduced in significant amounts, which I don't think it will be) going to over-ride any natural cooling signal we might begin to see emerging over the next 10-20 years. .

Sorry, I meant AGW/Man Made GW over some other natural cycle. I believe there are natural cycles at play as well, but AGW is also at work and will eventually swamp all other cycles, probably.

I think we're really being hit hard by a number of differant issues at the moment. 1. Interdecadal warming of the Atlantic Ocean. Theres no doubt in my mind this is what caused that initial switch from a cold climate to a generally mild clmiate in the late 80's. The switch happened way to quickly for it to have been anything else, IMO. I believe even now, nearly 20 years on, this warm phase of the Northern Atlantic, is having an impact on the climate across much of northern Europe. 2. Increased solar activity. I think there is good evidence that solar activity has been at histroically quite high levels. Quite how this works isn't clear to me, but there does seem to be some sort of link between sunspot activity and the weather on Earth, IMO. 3. Increased and stronger El Nino Activity. 1983, 1991 and 1997, all very strong or record breaking El Nino events, with weaker events in 1987, 1992-1995 (that period of weak El Nino activity spanning YEARS, was truely exceptional, IMO) 2002 and 2006/2007. That a LOT of El Nino's in a relatively short space of time, IMO. 4. Last but not least let us not forget Global Warming. Whether its man-made or natural, whether its being driven by the other factors or something in its own right (I personally favour AGW, rather than natural warming being the only driver behind current warming) Theres no question the Earth is going through a very pronounced, gradual warming trend. And this must also be having an impact. Now, which of these is more important than the others and which is a driver and which is an effect, I'll leave it for others to decide, because I'm not quallified to draw any conclussions. What I will say is that with 4 scenario's really coming together to put us in the situation we currently find ourseleves in, I believe there IS still hope that if we can get a couple of factors to weaken, like the Interdecadal Warming and a decrease in solar activity, then we may enter something of a temporary cooler phase for a decade or two, before AGW eventually takes away the effect of those other mitigating factors. By a cooler phase, I'm talking back to the sort of climate we had in the early and mid 90's, where although many months were above average, below average months and even seasons, were possible on an occasional basis. Somehow I don't see us ever going back to an early or mid 80's climate, short of conveyor belt shut off, anyway. I'm probably talking complete rubbish though.

I'm not sure the CET for the first few days of the month will be that high. Yes the days do look quite warm, but depending on cloud amounts, nights could still be quite chilly. Much as we've experianced during the last few weeks this month, infact.

The highest CET spanning a 12 month period was from November 1st to November 1st 1995, where I think I'm right in saying every single month was above average (not sure about March 1995?) and the CET for that 12 month period was +11c - The only time an 11c CET has ever been achieved in this country in a 12 month period (though I think that the period June 2006 to June 2007 may just beat it, depending on what happens in the next couple of months)

Yes. If you believe this; http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/peop...ino12SSTMon.gif

LOL! Well I didn't think I'd gone outrageously cold, yet my 7.8 is in the lowest 8. A sign of the times, I guess. :lol:

I recorded 8cm on February 8th. I rated this winter 5 out of 10. Very poor for cold weather, but for snowfall, I've known worse.

7.8. The coolest and wettest April since 2001. Generally very wet, with frequent southerly tracking lows and higher than normal pressure over Greenland. The final week sees a warmer, settled spell as high pressure begins to develop. Obviously going for a below average month is a risk, but I believe given the winter pattern and the pattern we've seen in the second half of March, as well as the fact that we're coming out of an El Nino period, that its worth the risk. To me, if we're going to get a below average month this year, April is the most likely candidate - All that said, with the reality of GWUK in 2007, I'm in no way confident.

I'm thinking cold and showery. It'll have to be some spell to beat the cold and wetness of Easter 1998, though!

I really wouldn't worry about next winter at this point, guys. And Thundery is right in any case. High SST's in the shallow waters around the UK are VERY prone to temperature changes and do not (IMO) stop a cold winter from developing. The warm anomolies in the Channel could be important in one aspect though, and that is they could help to increase very slightly, any heat we might pull in from off the Continent this summer (assuming we don't have a cool/wet spell at some point in the next 3 months, which would help bring the warm anomolies down) Glacier Point, very interesting analysis. Generally your thinking it'll be another warm summer, but much wetter and high pressure generally weaker than in 2006? I wonder, if La Nina was to develop strongly (a big if) over the spring, what impact would that have on the summer, do you think?

I would have thought its quite possible to get a cool April in an otherwise above average spring. Just look at 1998, for instance.

Considering the last few years have shown only very gradual increase's, I just can't see the CET dramtically shooting up by a full 0.5c from 2006, summer blizzard. Maybe we will see an 11.0 or 11.1 at the very most, but 11.4 seems rather a big leap, to me. I actually suspect that 2007 will be ever so slightly down on 2006. Still well above average and well in the 10's, but I don't think we're going to reach quite the exceptional levels of last year. As ever, we'll see.

Thats very interesting Paul. I would suppose that synoptically its going for a lot of blocking/high pressure? As we know, a blocked Feb can give us anything from February 1998 to February 1986. Hence the wide temperature variation?

Well, obviously my January CET prediction of 1.8 is looking hoplessly foolish. However, that said, synoptically I still think things are on course. The pattern change to colder type weather has now occured, and as with the last few winters, once it happens, you would have to think there will be more up to sometime in March, anyway. So, given how high the CET's of December and January will be, coupled with an increased risk and frequency of cold snaps/spells, February should be comfortably the coldest month of the winter. Now how cold will it be? I would say it'll be on a par with last Feb. So my CET prediction is; 3.7. However, I would point out that should winds go around to the east early or mid month, then theres the risk of a very significant cold spell, IMO

I think we'll almost inevitably get an 11+ CET for mid 2006 to mid 2007, but I think we'll have to wait a little longer for an 11+ CET to fall within the 12 months of a single year, i.e. 2007. However, I'm confident it'll happen with the next 5 years, and who knows, it *may* just be this year.

Well this is tough. I expected a cold start to 2007, but that in receding by the day, in my mind. Not sure what happens later in the year, but a hot summer seems quite reasonable to me. I'll predict a very warm 10.8. Out of interest, the period April 2006 to April 1007 could well achieve an 11+ yearly CET, for the first time since November 94 to November 95 - Dependning on whether we get a cold February or March, I wouldn't be surprised to see it exceed the 94-95 figure actually.

NO, because we don't have consistent cold in March (despite whats happened on 2005 and 2006) However, a more interesting point is September. I think, if the next decade continues with the trend of the last decade, to give exceptionally hot and sunny Septembers, then there may be an arguement for extending the UK summer to cover September (with global warming this is to be expected in time, anyway) Didn't the WMO recently put out a paper on the extending of summer into September? So, clearly the WMO and the Europen Met Offices are looking at this.

Well as ever, I keep an open mind, so I'll be watching your forecasts with great interest over the next few years.

OK, but last winter wasn't a 69/70 or anything like it. And the winter before definatly wasn't a 68/69! :unsure:

So you think we're going to have to wait until 2013 for a cold winter (bearing in mind we haven't actually had a cold winter since 95/96)???? Theres going to be a lot of unhappy faces around on Internet forums like this one for the next 7 years! :unsure:

LOL! Thats grim news. Thats when most of us thought winter might actually kick in! Is this going to be "The Year Without A Winter?"

Hi. Interesting forecast. I notice in an earlier forecast on your website, you say that the UK will now be expecting a period of "Less Cold" winters for the next 5 years. Can I ask, "Less Cold" than what? "Less Cold" than the last 5 years? Because anyone will tell you that the winters here, over the last 5 years, have been pretty mild anyway. By saying the coming winter will be "Less Cold" it somehow implies that at some point in the last 5 years we've had a series of cold winters, which couldn't be further from the truth. You have to go back to 90/91 to find anything that could be described as really cold during winter, and possibly back to the mid 1980's for anything that could be described as severe. The UK has been an absolutely barren world for severe winter weather for many, many, many years now.

Thats what I'm saying. It could just be moderatly cold, but still quite snowey, as long as the jet and the pressure belts are all in the correct positions (which the met wouldn't know this far out)

The thing is, you don't need a massive amount of severe cold, to get snow. At this far out, the Met simply wouldn't know how much snow may fall in any cold snaps in February.