Gavin P

So what are we looking at? An unsettled and relatively cool August, with the jet reallt cranking up quickly through September giving a very wet and stormy September and October?

How much it drops later in the week will depend on minima and how low it gets. GFS 00z going for some pretty cool nights at the end of the week; http://85.214.49.20/wz/pics/Rtavn7817.png http://85.214.49.20/wz/pics/Rtavn10217.png http://85.214.49.20/wz/pics/Rtavn12617.png http://85.214.49.20/wz/pics/Rtavn15017.png

Cheers Kold. :wacko:

So, are we thinking an above average CET for July is now likely?

It looks likely to me that the CET will fall on Sunday (Saturday night and Sunday day) which may virtually wipe out any rise we see for today (Friday night and Saturday day) That should just leave another rise on Sunday night and Monday day, which could be quite a sharp rise, but I wouldn't have thought it'll be a lot more than 15.5 Tuesday morning?

1996 had a cool September and a cold November.

Also, in May warm SST's south of Greenland were much less intense than they are now, IMO.

Yeah, the MetO obviously not as impressed with developments as most of SST watchers. Cooler than last winter, but milder than average. Very surprised and disappointed. But, if thats what SST's are poitning to, then thats what they are pointing to. We've got to remember that SST's have gotten better as they have gone along. If the Met based their forecast on SST's now, it would point to a very negative NAO winter, IMO, but they don't. They use May, and May's SST's, were not as condusive as the ones we see now, so maybe its not a surprise the Met have gone weakly negative....

What you have to remember though, is that if the Atlantic SST set-up we have now, was replicated in winter, the jet stream would be a lot further south than it is now. I mean, the jet stream has generally been further south than it should be, but its summer, so it'll never be *that* far south. But in winter, I believe it would be a lot further south, and so the Azores High would also be a lot weaker and northern blocking, much more stronger.

Kold, although we can probably expect the -NAO signal to fade somewhat over the immediate future, I believe the Met issues these forecasts, believing not that the signal will last for the next 6-9 months, but that it'll re-emerge in 6-9 months. So if we get to September and October and the SST's look to moving in the wrong way, the expectation will be that as we go into winter, the -NAO signal should re-emerge.

I can confirm its going to be issued tomorrow. I emailed them on Monday and they replied telling me it would be issued on July 12th. I agree with Steve that the Atlantic SST pattern is perfectly set-up for a negative NAO and has been getting better and better since April. May was had a decent -NAO pattern, and this will lead the Met to issue a -NAO call for the winter of 2007/2008, IMO.

I agree with Summer_Blizzard here. I think theres enough residual warmth on the Continent to pose a threat of above average temps for the remainder of this summer, but overall, I think the secind half of 2007 is going to be one of much more stable and slowly declining CET's. I expect rainfall amounts to continue to be well above average, at times maybe exceptional, but I think we've done with the record breaking warmth for this year. CET, to come in somwhere around 10.5 to 10.7, IMO.

Yeah, the lower end ones look good at the moment. Wish I'd gone for about 15.8 now

Don't those very warm anomlies south of Greenland, when coupled with the cool stuff down the eastern sea board, actually promote a negative NAO? If you want a negative NAO, you want warm waters south of Greenland, don't you?

Not long to wait anyway.

No hints about what they will say, I suppose?

If the Met forecast an NAO value of -1 to -1.5, that really would be a turn up for the books.

I've never heard of a correlation between wet summers and mild winters. In my view there is really no relationship between winter and summer, or summer and winter for that matter. You look at some summers like 1939, 1962, 1978, etc.... And they hardly set the world alight for good weather. I agree with Ian that we could do with seeing a general cooling through the remainder of the year, and a cool and wet September would be most welcome. I know most will disagree, but I wouldn't mind seeing summer arrive in October, personally.

Thanks GP. There is definatly a similarity, IMO. The anomalies were more intense in 1995 though. Nevertheless it looks like a clear and definate -NAO call from the ,et Office to me. I'll be amazed if they call anything other than negative. The only question, IMO, is how negative they go.

Glacier Point, if possible, could you post the anomaly for May 1995 and how its compares to 2007. I'm of the belief that 1995 is a closer match to this year, than 2005. Cheers. :lol:

Could the second half of 2007 be like a slightly less extreme version of the second half 1993?

Yep, looking very encouraging so far. I'm looking forward to the Met's winter NAO forecast, released in just a couple of weeks, hopefully.

Agreed Tamara. The met have gone against their model, in that they are still forecasting an above average remainder of summer, and with the residual warmth in the seas around the UK, that seems a good call, but otherwise I think the general pattern will remain very similar to the one we have had so far. Thats until the end of August, when I'm not sure what will happen. The big unkown of course, is the hurricane season. That will have an impact, one way or another.

Well, I'm not really great at all this teleconnections buisness, but as far as SST's go, my view is that the situation that in the Atlantic/Pacific that helped produce this horrendous June isn't showing signs of chaning anytime soon, so personally, I'm not really expecting much of an upturn in the weather (certainly not an extended one) anytime in the near future.

The Met Office's dynamic model is going for a COLDER than average July-September period;, with the extreme heat remaining in the south-east of Europe http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/seaso...terce_cat2.html The MO dynamic model has a good record as well, so if your thinking this summer will have extreme heat, I think this is a very concerning development. Of course, that doesn't preclude warm or even moderatly hot spells at times, but with the Atlantic the way it is and increasing La Nina developments in the Pacific, I really don't think this summer is going to have any intense hot spells. Just my opinion.