Altohumorous

Moderate graupelly shower here a while back (when the site went down again)

That's a wonderfully written piece......... About the weekend, I worry about that warm sector air that is/has been going north through east Europe, even into southern Scandi, that will be the ultimate source of the air that feeds west over the weekend - will it therefore not be anything like the cold that people seem to be assuming?

I do understand that, but this is not at all that type of weather, it's potent quite convective type with an Arctic airmass, a very good combination for snow. I presume what I'm saying in more technical speak is that the dew points in this kind of set up should be excellent. I am aware that snow can fall at air temps above zero, and rain below. Having said that, the colder the air temps overall is always good (if the instability exists). Scattered clouds at the moment, but no sign of showers. The earlier activity showed up on the radar as having formed suddenly just off the coast. Surprised it didn't develop further, but must be potential. Alot of shower activity across northern England, Scotland, even North Wales, so hopes remain high.

Showers slipping south just to the east of us (the edge of the nimbus right over where I am). Have to keep the faith! I'd say nearby coastal spots, headlands & Howth Pen are having snow and hail right now. RTE 9.30 forecast just predicted "showers of rain, sleet and snow"!! :blush: Can't believe it's not snow, temps forecast to be no more than zero or 1 on the coast, bizarre. It was hardly any colder than this or any different when we got the snow on New Year's Eve. Will be truly hard to stomach if we finally get a few potent and/or frequent showers and it turns out to be rain or sleet Hmmm, just been reading reports from some East and Northeast parts of England, apparently some milder air has fed in, temps gone above zero, showers gone more sleety, snow on the ground even thawing in places. Looks like this could be one of the famous big last minute letdowns alright <_< I could understand if the low was more extensive, and if the very coldest air was over the west, but they show western areas around zero or just above tonight too. Makes one wonder, what will it take to get temperatures low enough in precipitation to have more chance of snow? I guess this is the big difference between the modern climate and 20-40 years ago. Just a degree or two, but enough to have a big impact, even in ideal synoptical conditions. We need sea temperatures to fall off by another couple of degrees, which means end of the month at earliest

East Wicklow and most of Wexford certainly going to get the best of this, then Southeast Dublin next best. Howth peninsula should do best of north Dublin, hopefully northeaast Dublin generally will get a few decent showers, and coastal Meath and Louth (southern part at least) should get a bit. Later tonight and during tomorrow looking best as winds go more NE, until the instability dies down later tomorrow

As the wind goes more to the NE tomorrow showers may push inland, but probably won't amount to much as they lose the convection of the rising air over the relatively warm sea. What you really need is a developing low centre, potent showery trough and/or a frontal system embedded in this cold air, but those events are rare, even in a lengthy cold spell. That is what is hitting Britain today and onwards, and it's a very unusual event. Otherwise it's nearly all favoured coastal areas and Ulster and North Connaught (because of mostly north winds). I'm surprised you didn't get snow there from the prolonged frontal activity in the lead up to New Year's Eve?? Keep an eye on the charts for the weekend and next week, it's possible that developing northeasterly might push showery troughs well inland, if it strengthens enough/becomes potent enough. Beyond that at some stage there's going to be at least a battle ground situation with Atlantic fronts coming up against the very cold air over Ireland and you've a great chance of a big snow then, better than coastal places and places further north/northwest.

Blasphemer! I'll take ANYTHING wintery, cold slut that I am. Well, so rare has it been in the past 15-20 years.......... There won't be much of a thaw with this wind, it's a penetrating Arctic airmass, it's already quite strong and even with that the temperature didnt rise above zero. The showers look to be of the heavy/intense/somewhat convective in nature, always a good sign for snow possibility, and very heavy hail. And that in itself will help drag the temps down a degree. Indeed the forecast, even from Met Eireann since this a/m, has been for increased shower activity in the east tonight and tomorrow. So we should be expectant, it could be the main event of this cold spell, or even the whole winter. Looks like parts of West Connaught, Clare and North/West Kerry got some heavy showers today, the mountains in those areas have had the most snow they have probably had in at least a generation. It was interesting to note, from looking at the radar, that the showers, quite intense-looking, made it across the (very mountainy) Dingle peninsula, and then across the (very mountainy) Iveragh peninsula, then died out before hitting the Beara Peninsula. That part of West Cork seems to be one of the most sheltered parts of the whole country. Mind you, over Christmas/New Year I was there (in Castletownbere) and experienced a ferocious storm of win and rain and sleet that lasted 2 days and three nights. And that was with east winds! Lads and lasses, hope yis will add yer snow and frost and ice and fog pics from around the country to the picture thread on this site! This is a very historical event, it's heading to equal the cold spells of 84/85, and 81/82, surpassing 83/84, and 85/86, and could soon be approaching 78/79 (if it lasts til the end of this month at least)

Watching the radar there at 12, we just missed heavy showers by a whisker, slipped south down the Irish Sea, just off the coast - some high intensity colours in them - what a waste!

Anybody know where I could find out what has been the coldest min and max temps recorded so far this winter in these islands? Preferably recordings for each country! Cheers, I'd be very grateful.

Sounds like the warm sector, 1.3 is pretty ok for a warm sector! Shouldn't last long before the cold front.......

Fair enough, but I would have thought the troughs progged for further north and west are worthy of more comment. Perhaps they will just be weak affairs, that's what the MetO over here think anyway, but the UKMO precipitation charts beg to differ

:lol:

Are these charts showing a likely influx of too much marginal "North Sea-influenced" air/ not enough Arctic influx in the system(s) tomorrow?

Be warned, this whole system tomorrow is becoming very messy-looking in latest charts, getting progged further west and pulling North Sea origin air towards us, with the Arctic Air plunge ending up pushed towards the West of Ireland and the Atlantic. This means a risk of rain and sleet in places, rather than the snow that looked nailed on up to now (in the event of any precipitation) We really need the Arctic air to stay far enough east to be mixed in enough with the low/fronts/oclusions. Of course we need the latter to be far enough west to give decent precipitation, so it's all a delicate balance as ever! North and Northwest and West of Ireland now looking the more definite for snow, and the midlands and south. East looking marginal regards rain/sleet or snow, certainly the coast

Good point. That easterly, if it lasts and doesn't become a slack northeasterly with North Sea air, has potential. Looks like it will be more of a northeasterly so the North Sea influence is going to remain a large factor as it has often be so far this spell. Until it freezes over of course!

"Intense cold" I love that, haven't heard the likes since about 20 years. The rain/sleet showers from the trough(s) on saturday evening here was disappointing considering the flow and the very recent previous snow, I'm afraid that will happen again tonight with this first frontal system That occlusion/short wave/polar low-type feature is interesting. Those things have often lets us down in spectacular fashion but in this set-up the potential is very much there for something exciting. Alot now depends on the ability of the overall system to maintain instability, intensity and penetration south/westwards. Everything else (the exact track etc) is pure chance of course. Most recent UKMO precipitation predictions indicating a possibility of up to 20cm in north and east Ireland. I'm sure it won't happen even nearly like that, but even a quarter of it would be fantastic. On another note, how long will local authorities and residential management companies allow packed ice just to lie across paths and roads (other than primary roads)? You could argue that local residents should get out and clear, but that's very difficult with packed and re-inforced ice. If it snows again I think folks should get together and get out digging, because it looks like the powers that be are hiding and just hoping it will all go away quick. According to just about all forecasts, that's not going to happen for a week or longer

ECM though goes for this, which overall would mean very dry, frosty, culminating in stagnant HP weather, probably becoming cloudy and so even the frosty weather would go. However it's a long way off but it has to happen at some stage in this spell: That low over central Europe seems a constant spanner in the works of the Scandi high joining the Siberian to the Greenland/Arctic, and that has gone a long way to preventing a widespread frontal easterly snow event, IMO. Of course it's all relative, and compared to the last 15/20/25 years this has been wonderful! (I won't make the weather gods angry <_< )

Just a quick question here, I'm assuming the guage is going on the basis that 1mm of "precipitation" = 1cm of snow? Hard to believe that such high totals are possible in this upcoming scenario - according to those charts that would mean up to 20cm, or two thirds of a foot, around the vicinity of the southerly half of the Irish Sea coasts. Call me a skeptic

Am in Fairview, North City today, no sign of anything like that here - just patchy "dead" cloud, remnants of whatever came across the north and north west earlier today. Still bright with a little sun. Radar shows shower activity dying out over the north/northeast, but pepping up over the north/northwest and streaming down into Leitrim/Roscommon region or thereabouts. Charts show all the signs of pressure rising and killing off most instability, whilst the airflow is now very slack. Have to hope the next system coming from the north has more penetration but as it already appears to be approaching very slowly I doubt that it will. I don't believe those predictions of more severe cold, I think this is about as cold as it's going to get

1978/79 deja vue! Arrived back from England 1st Jan, all city buses and trains off due to a fairly light fall of snow, had to walk 5 miles home. 31 years later, everything has advanced so much in our ultra modern society, right? All buses off from about 5pm, I arrived back from west Cork at 6.30 on the train, all roads still covered from a fairly light fall of snow nearly 24 hours ago. Walked about 5 miles home because 1. I like snow, and 2. I don't like spending fortunes on taxis! This is becoming an amazing spell of weather. Was in Castletownbere, had a storm with easterly strong gales (storm force on the 30th) and heavy rain that lasted 3 nights. Ice and snow lasted today on the shorelines of the Beara peninsula. Snow-covered mountains look fantastic

I wonder where? Adrian's Wall? About 2cm here, fell last night. Hasn't melted. Hardest frost of the winter/of the cold spell so far tonight, minus 5 to minus 10 forecast. This is the coldest I can remember since 1987 (not likely to surpass that in the forseeable future), and the longest cold spell since Feb 1986. More snow already than Feb 86 I think, so we are almost certainly looking to winter '84/85 for the next comparison in terms of cold, snow and longevity. If a major, widespread snow event occurs across these islands then we can equal winter 81/82. I haven't forgetten 1995 but I'm sure we've already gone past that in longevity? All very exciting really, but still can't escape the feeling that it's not as cold or snowy as it WOULD have been if these patterns had occurred in the 80s, or even the 90s?

Heavy shower of hail and sleet here around 6.30-7, hail stayed on the ground for a while, still a bit on the cars. Wicklow hills will look great in the morning!

Heavy hail/sleet shower here just north of Dublin city at about 6.30/7, left the ground and cars covered in hail for a little while, mostly melted now

A raw, breezy, sometimes gusty day with intermittent showers of rain with hail and sleet mixed in, occasional sharp bursts. Lovely wintery feel and look to the day, how nice to have some real cold in December. The cumulus/nimbus coming in off the Irish Sea always look very nice, more dramatic and different light to what comes from the west. Got gradually colder through the day, might see some snowy stuff if any showers occur overnight/early tomorrow. Looks like showers will be gone by lunch tomorrow. I'd say Wicklow anywhere a few hundred feet up got a nice covering of snow out of the showers so far. Wish I could get up there! Weekend/monday/tuesday event still looks marginal for here, and somewhat unclear even for areas that look like getting heavier precipitation. If the cold digs in, then the north east third of the country, and maybe even two thirds or more, looks like getting a nice snow event. After that it's looking all over the place, probably staying mostly on the cold side, but doubt cold enough for any snow at that stage.

Ah now hould on there a second - we are drawing on NW Russia air? Not quite, the air we will get is what has been over southern Scandinavia and the northern Continent the past couple of days, and the flow dies and goes northerly before the feed from further east can bring it's air. Parts of East and maybe Central Europe will get that air in the next couple of days. If the flow had lasted/strengthened, we would get much lower temps than we are going to, but such an event is incredibly rare