Altohumorous

If that northerly comes off at all it's certainly a pattern change. A weak toppler looked the only possibility, this would be (though short-lived) more of a real deal, and could also herald the potential for more. Even the fact that the trough and tropical air coming out of the NE States/Canada slows down and fills is a pattern change, along with the actual incursion from the Arctic, and the way the trough over the NE Atlantic/Scandi heads/extends south to drag that incursion down and sustain it as far as it does. Oscillation shift of the Jet also happens. Cooler or possibly colder maritime & still meridional pattern looks possible beyond the fairly reliable timeframe.

I don't really get the frequent mention of "the jet going south". Looks to me clearly that the jet is oscillating north and south and mostly in a pattern whereby it is north of us, or close to us at best. Hence we are not getting any cold incursions simply because of the positioning of the oscillation pattern, despite the ongoing promise in other terms (vortex etc). Last winter we had the jet more to the south of us but in any case there were not the other factors necessary for any significant cold to hit us and then the vortex took over. So far, if we can judge anything from the start of november, it looks like a long waiting game for the broader patterns to shift the jet and then just hope the vortex doesn't move as well to its typical location. Even with no vortex nearby, and cold becoming established regularly in NE Europe, the troughs keep pushing right up into the far northeast, with heights tending to either sink into the SE half of Europe, or ridge to there. Thus the "cold becoming established early" often spoken about in northeast Europe is not of any benefit, and simply not able to remain there. I presume this is a jet factor, oscillating north and south in that area.

A warm fine spell around mid-October is very common in these islands, especially the further east you are. I can't recall the past couple of years but prior to that it occurred almost like clockwork.

Two extremely powerful storms this week, haven't seen the likes in about 20 years. Also I don't recall the last time a low pressure of CBP less than 930mb has come so close to these shores. Northwest Ireland and much of Scotland, especially the west, and the northern islands are going to get a fierce battering tonight and tomorrow. The friday storm looks like giving the south west and west of these islands a real pounding then too. Models still unsure on possible further storms in FI, though surely not as bad as these two. Alot of heavy rin to come in places, I fear the south and west of Ireland are in for some bad flooding.

Further investigation shows me how poor memory can be! January 1978 became quite cold polar-maritime and february of that year had a significant cold easterly. However the november/dec of 77 wasn't as similar to this year as as 1976. On the basis of a vague theory of comparisons between roughly the 1976-1987 period and the current one, we are around the 1980/1981 stage. Of course I know that the weather patterns are not going to compare in that way for a multitude of reasons, but it will be interesting to see does this winter bear alot of similarities to some of that era that weren't overall 'cold', relatively speaking. In terms of the comparison if there are to be more similarities to the 70s/80s period, then we are due a very 'ordinary' winter. In terms of this week, I think something between what the GFS and ECM are mostly showing in the last couple of days is likely, as this has often been the outcome in the past as far as I recall.

Just looked over some old charts again there, and there are significant similarities between our current and recent patterns and those of the late autumn/early winters I mentioned above, plus also 1980/81 and 75/76 (probably also 74/75, and maybe 73/74). The closest similarity I've found so far is to 75/76, which had a couple of decent short cold spells, and was otherwise a mild winter. In all cases the weather was dominated by high prressure to the south, over these islands, or to the southeast. None of them were particularly stormy or unusually zonal from an intensity point of view. Which is similar to recent years. In all cases occasional arctic incursions happened, and in late Jan/early feb 1976 a northerly gave way to an easterly, which lasted a few days, though it wasn't especially potent. In other words, in a period often noted for its cold winters, there were many mild or just 'normal'/temperate winters. And unlike one or two recent periods where severe cold over the continent was often just out of reach, the winters I've mentioned never looked like having anything very severe, except during that short period in 1976. Mind you I haven't looked beyond january in any of them really, but my memory and revision over the years tells me nothing of any great severity or at least of prolonged severity happened in any of those winters.

The recent patterns are to me reminiscent of winter 77/78 and perhaps also 79/80. When you consider that these winters also occurred in the midst of a period of colder winters, it's not an unreasonable speculative comparison. In 77/78 the pattern stuck for a long time. That is not to be deliberately foreboding, as I am myself a lover of cold spells and interesting/dynamic weather especially in winter. My feeling about the recent pattern has been that it will last through December at least. My optimistic side is also greedily/selfishly looking at this potential cold snap in a week, because I will be in Germany from 6-9 December, and look to be right in line for at least a decent two days of 'real winter'. Would be nice to see the fabled Xmas markets in such seasonal weather. I do think the pattern recently and currently is one that has great potential for a shift to a pattern more conducive to colder and more dynamic weather in this part of the world. I would expect it to take a while for that bit of a shift to be able to happen. Overall the pattern doesn't seem to be one that will shift towards more permanentally zonal, as that hasn't happened in a few years now really.

Further to my correlation with the same period of the year (end Feb/start March) in the fairly recent past, most of the early and mid-90s had cold spells from north or east in this period, a couple short-lived (but right at the turn of the months), others lasting a week or more overall. Definite trend of easterlies during this period too.

I think this winter there was a "snow forcefield" around us here in North Dublin City area! A few very light grauple and snow showers yesterday, whilst the radar looked so promising, and further south got a few CMs, again....................Oh well, good for you folks. I wonder is Howth peninsula to blame? Certainly an unexpectedly interesting event. Yesterday morning early was like a scene from "Mordor", slate grey, cold, dark, dead winter sky and light and feel. So nice to see the brighter weather today. These chill but light easterlies and the weather remind me very much of many late 70s and early to mid 80s days in late feb, march and April

Feb/March 2001 northerly blast - heavy snow in many areas. We had blizzards for 24 hours here. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/topkarten/fsreaeur.html Feb/March week 2000 had topplers. First week march 1999 had this: http://www.wetterzentrale.de/topkarten/fsreaeur.html Feb/March week 1998 (mentioned above I think?) had a northerly blast period but it had alot more potential than it delivered here. It was one of a few I can recall from late winter/start of spring where the forecast was for polar low and very heavy snow that didn't turn out so, especially away from the north and northwest. Here's Feb 28, 2002: http://www.wetterzentrale.de/topkarten/fsreaeur.html Feb 27th, 2004: http://www.wetterzentrale.de/topkarten/fsreaeur.html Later ones have been mentioned. This all illustrates my point about what a typical set-up it is for this week of the year, going back at least 15 years. The difference from all of those to this year's current situation is that we currently have a cold and very settled anticyclone over north/northwest Europe, whereas in almost all those other scenarios we had low pressure/polar vortex into Scandinavia and north urope, though some may have started with high pressure over these islands. Northerly out breaks earlier in feb and later in march and in April in many years have begun this way. Currently that anticyclone over northwest Europe looks too stubborn to allow a proper northerly, or rather alternatively, the vortex isn't really getting strongly down across Scandinavia into north central Europe (or it is too weak)

A very cold northerly associated with a strong high pressure around Greenland at the end of february/very start of march has been quite a frequent occurrence over the years, right through the long run of mild winter years at least, if my memory is not fooling me.

Lots of rain forecast anyway, though it's not looking heavy yet here, and we are more or less in the middle of the wet zone. Still though, it's going to make it difficult for the big game today if this keeps up til then. As regards the "wintery mix" issue for tonight and tomorrow, this situation never looked great for snow at all, I was very surprised at how much it was getting talked up. The reason I say this is that most if not all models showed a warmer sector pushing east over Britain as the main band of rain arrived/developed over here, and then this would be the sector, mixed with somewhat colder air, which would start to pull back west, and supposedly somehow draw in much colder air, even though there would never be that air there at all - not in situ over Britain, neither over the near continent. And furthermore due to this lack of convergence of airmasses with wide enough temperature differences, the precipitation in the main band is not nearly as intense as was being modelled either. So where & what did those erroneous forecasts eminate from? Should be plenty of snow in the hills later though with road conditions safe enough to get up there too except for early mornings, from tomorrow. If you're near any (proper) hills. Or not busy on early weekdays! Further out, because there is so little agreement on any clear pattern, I'll take it that we will continue to get a no-man's land mix of chilly spells and milder spells, pretty much what we have had all winter. Also even if the blocking to our northeast did start to move west enough to bring an easterly, there's no real cold over Europe to take advantage of it. For those that want real cold. If we are to get a decent fall of snow here, it will be the northerly that so often comes in late feb/beginning of march, or something like it. Though that often comes along after winters where there has been little or no northern blocking in jan/feb.

I live in Santry/Ballymun too! It was brief, and very little, around 10pm-11.30 anyway, when I was looking. More frustrated with this a/m, great potential there and so close, hard to know how we missed out on it!

Thanks! Wanted to go to Avoca yesterday but couldn't get away. Would love to see the hills, trying to persuade herself to go today (not into the higher areas, just to where you can see)!

If you're near a windward coast and/or the skies weren't clear then you wouldn't get frost

There were some flurries early in the night here. Alot of showers drifting onto the East coast all morning according to the radar, mostly Louth, Down, and Antrim, north Dublin earlier, and an area of light precipitation over the east half of Wicklow (any Wicklowers on Louthies on here tell us what's happening/happened??

Yes but with strong onshore wind and SSTs of 9.6 DC, I feel that -10 would be needed. Better chance when wind drops off, if upper temps remain similar. One thing that will help drag those surface temps down a little bit more will be the snow forecast to settle in Wales, given that the air coming here will be crossing there. On the down side the milder air makes progress north across Ireland, making it very marginal even for the east and the northeast midlands

With regard to the chances of severe cold around these shores, and those who like to see it happen, it's worth noting how the expectations of people looking at model output has changed since Dec 2009! Back then most were just hopeful that something, anything would happen, even for a few days. The rest is history. Although I still enjoy looking at the forecast models I find it much better to leave the predicting/interpreting to those who have proven themselves to know about it. And I maintain the same perspective as three years ago, hopeful for anything, enjoying the fact that we had some seasonal weather so far this autumn, the fact that it is still very early days with the whole winter still spread out before us, and therefore lots of time for interesting/unusual things to happen. And if anything really interesting DOES happen, it's very much bonus territory. The reason I'm posting this is that I've discovered this approach is alot less stressful or disappointment-provoking than the way it used to be for me. You could compare it to following football teams - for the vast majority of supporters, their team will only win something or achieve something like promotion very occasionally. To be constantly hanging on tenterhooks hoping desperately that "this will be the year" for nearly every game is no doubt very exciting, but mentally and emotionally not very good for you. I suppose you could also describe it in terms of addiction! So by all accounts here's just looking forward very much to the models showing us something colder coming right in time for the very start of meteo winter, within the reliable range, and the potential for something a bit more than that - how good is that? Especially when you consider the many years that went before 2008ish where so little was on offer, and the patterns/model predictions were, well, oh so predictable. Just a comment on previous charts/models during previous cold spells, I was looking again recently and it's amazing how much the mind/memory can play tricks, especially the further away it is. How often has it been said that "winter 78/79" and "december/jan 1981/82" were somehow unbroken cold spells with ideal synoptics that we can only dream of? O contraire mes amis! In December 1978, and again in 1981, there was not, in fact a seamless run of perfect charts, though they were certainly good enough to have brought some significant snow at times (still only about 3 significant falls at most where I am). But at times the pattern over west Europe at least had temporary breakdowns, with short milder spells that would have some people on this forum going beserk with horror and predictions of doom for winter. I'm also wary enough to recall that in december 2008 (I think?) there was an intense scandi high that extended towards us for lenghty periods, but produced no severe cold due exact positioning & to a lack of NW area block to loink with it/of very cold air being advected towards us. Looking at the current model output all we can say really is that there is a strong trend for a week at least now for northern blocking and colder weather for these islands, possibly an easterly/northeasterly at first in any event, which is something that there has been little enough of even in the very cold spells of 09 and 10.

Wasn't last winter an example of a cold december overall mean followed by a cold Jan and fairly cold Feb, in these islands?

I actually do like cold for cold sake, and though it's now coming into March that's still often a cold time of year and I enjoy bracing weather. Now if I want to do more outdoorsy things I do look forward to warmer weather, but I can enjoy both and that's one reason why spring is so interesting. I think what alot of people like of course are more extremes because those are more interesting. When there's a real possibility of a cold spell being a very severe spell with snow then it's inevitable that people will be disappointed when that doesn't come off, even if it is March and following a very remarkable winter. As somebody else said, there's been so few cold winters for so long (compared to what older folks recall) that many of us want to enjoy this one for as long as possible

I have a model-related question, at least I think it is, but mods feel free to move if it isn't. For a while I've been taking interest in the weather in Iceland, because it gets extreme weather at times, being in a location that gives it direct feeds of air from both nearby Greenland and the more northerly parts of the Arctic. Recently it has had a long spell of screaming easterly/northeasterlies, (the backwash of which have given us our more recent cold spell). Now I take into account that Iceland is surrounded by ocean, but then so is Ireland (albeit sometimes benefitting from a near large landmass airstream, though it has been more the northerly flows that have influenced us in this winter), so I find it strange that the temperatures in Iceland (more specifically in Reykjavik, which I know is in a sheltered location in Iceland, but then again it benefits from air having crossed the rest of the landmass, snow and glacier-covered and mountainous as it is) have been consistently around or above zero according to the figures I have seen (on the BBC weather site) Has anybody any thoughts on this, especially considering their airmass is part of the airmass, that in watered down form has given us almost equally cold weather, much further south?

North Wicklow must have the best snow magnet ever - yet again some decent showers come in off the sea and slip down there. CLoudy here, radar showed showers hitting us, but nothing from the sky yet. Grrrrrr! -13.7 in Baltinglass this morning!! -22.5 in Altnaharra in North Scotland. Easterly drift today might just raise the temps above zero. Charts looking increasingly like a breakdown by monday to me, certainly on the coast at first. Forecasts still saying freeze to continue

Looking more and more like a breakdown since yesterday to me, certainly in south and west England, Wales and Ireland. Very surprising really, considering synoptics and most forecasts

Wonderful pics folks. As JD Salinger said, "where do the ducks go in winter?" A severe ice day today here. Freezing fog tonight. Minus 7 and falling. I feel like I'm in another world. Once in a lifetime experience for those under 30 perhaps? Considering the modern climate, that's very possible, especially if the ice decline in the Arctic continues apace. Radar showed a nice shower heading right for us, then died out just off the coast - groan!

So cold here tonight, -6 at the moment according to MetE. Must be well below -10 in places, such as Wicklow valleys, and inland frosty spots up north and nortwest. Sadly there never seem to be any recordings of temps from Wicklow valleys. "The coldest mountains in Ireland" as my Uncle often used to say! :lol: