[Today's Weather And General Chat]

Wild for much of the day, strongest winds this afternoon and still now, I'd estimate force 9, maybe touching 10, certainly in the showers. Not nearly so many showers as I would ahve expected, not heavy either. Presume much heavier further west.

Looks from the synoptics like the northwest will have had/be having some very severe winds, anybody up that way can report?

[Winter Weather Memories Bad Or Good]

I remember one event in the 70s being sent home from school, not actually alot of snow but I recall the size of the flakes fluttering past the condensation-covered windows (funny the things you redcall!)

Then in the 80s (Jan85 I think, possibly Jan87) a major easterly convective snow event, hit in the mid afternoon, covered the roads very quick, my class had PE (cancelled of course) the last two classes of the afternoon, so we got out early, the bus got me home, just. People who had to leave school at 4 had to walk, traffic jammed up all the way, cars abandoned.

Meanwhile I spent a brilliant afternoon and evening watching the snow fall. Tragically, the following night/morning brought one of the worst "near and yet so far" events that are typical here on the coast (or WERE typical, now we dont even get near! ) - a depression moved in from the south, initially bringing blizzards on top of the lying few inches of snow, could have been the greatest event in my lifetime (matching or better than Jan'82), but the temperature rose 2 degress and it turned to sleet and then to rain the next morning. Why, oh why could it not have at least waited a day longer!

[Today's Weather And General Chat]

Looks like some dramatic showery/stormy weather today in many parts here. Didnt see much of it where I am. The southwest has had massive rain over the past week, I'd love to know the figurews for a few places.

I have really enjoyed the last few days, raw, often blustery, at times rainy/showery and dark - very seasonal! And fresh, cobwebs well and truly blown away. Still some lovely colour in the trees and hedgerows, flowering plants have stayed in bloom very late, and with alot o fleaves fallen, views are really opening up nicely.

Might finally see a proper frost tomorrow night!

[Winter Weather Memories Bad Or Good]

If it's any consolation to other coasties on here, we have had very little snow here since Jan 1987. I think 1991 was the last truly decent settled fall, 2001 was the last heavy fall (didnt really settle) - and we are one of the coldest coastal parts of this island. We depend very much on easterly snow events (too sheltered from north or northwest events), and easterlies cold enough to bring snow have been extremely rare the past 20 years or more. Of course, we need a colder easterly here than would be needed in England/Scotalnd, having the warming effect of the extra fetch, especially over the Irish Sea.

[Heating On Yet?]

Glad I'm not the only one who spends far too long thinking about these sorts of things! :o

Gas fire on number one or two most evenings (bar the very mild one last week some time) with door to kitchen annex shut most of the time to keep heat in. Not used central heating yet but have used small electric radiator in bedroom to take edge off temp a bit especially whilst ill at the weekend.

I use a small oil dimplex for quick shots of heat in one room. Expensive to keep on though..........

[Winter Weather Memories Bad Or Good]

Also this. A fairly beefy storm. Started off as rain but as the storm moved away it dragged down much colder air turning the rain to snow giving me a few inches.

Not dissimilar to the current set up? Stronger jet then I think. And colder up to our northwest (generally, not just because it was Jan)?

[Winter Weather Memories Bad Or Good]

Mostly good ones: '81/82 of course, for THAT snow. 78/79, especially the New Year eve snow. 83/84, 84/85, Feb 86. THAT week in Jan 1987. AFter that it's hard to recall much. 92/93 (I think it was that winter) saw about three months of gales and storms, the most disturbed prolonged period of weather I can ever recall) The snow storm of Feb 2001. The March snows of 88 & 1996.

Bad ones: Pick almost any from 87/88 right through (by which I mean most of all the winters, where in some years some of the winters had bits of interest here and there), 88/89 and 89/90 being my most painful memories of incredibly boring, mild winters.

Polar Lows that didnt deliver (years/dates are in the polar low thread)

[Heating On Yet?]

Heating is, strategically, on since the end of last week. Firstly, I have a student from Venezuela living here, only since september, the poor kid is really going to suffer this week. That said, he's had a very good run of it, a soft landing by anyone's calculation, with 6 weeks of mostly dry, bright, and fairly mild weather. An excellent acclimatisation period really, considering the time of year and the potential for nasty, stormy wet weather from september and cold snaps in October. I think coping with the darkness is going to be his other big challenge.

There are other factors in my heating regime - currently the wind is southwest/west, that blows in on the warmer side of my apartment, which is the sitting room (faces south, and is also warmed by apartments below, above and to one side having their sitting rooms in the same position, and the kitchen on the other side). A few days of cool PM westerlies and it would get quite chilly in here.

The other side of the apartment, already tending to be cool, wont change much, so relatively speaking, it will actually feel warmer, if you get my drift, especially now that I've got the heating on at times.

Of course if the wind goes to anything north or east, then the heating may be needed less, in that the sitting area will be warmer, and heating can just be switched on at bedtime to warm the bedrooms (which will, admittedly, be very cold)

If any cold northerlyish spell lasts, of course I'll have the heating on longer as even the soth side will cool down.

Then also there is the "seasonal acclimatisation factor", ie that after the first significant cooling of the autumn/winter, you get used to it after a few days, and tend to switch the heating on less than at the drop of a thermometer.

I could do a thesis.............

[Today's Weather And General Chat]

Good Morning,

Unexpected covering of snow this morning. 2000m -5C. The Austrian weather service forecasting a fair bit of snowfall into the coming weekend period. Snow level to vary from 700m to 1500m. They talk about weather systems

diving south across Western Europe and meeting the cold air block to the east. That looks a good set up for early winter snowfalls, especially in Alpine Regions.

C

Nice one! How lucky are you to live there............Hope to do some Alpine walking asap.

Cool, bright, blustery here, feeling cold, showers havent kicked in yet. Not sure how much rain we got in the end last night, wasnt much up til 1am anyway, I got the feeling the rain band must have split/fragmented and where I live we also get rain-shadow effect with frontal and advectional rain events when there are strong sw or south winds.

current conditions

hevy showers, blustery and cool

outdoor temp 7.1c

wind chill 7.1c

dew point 6.2c

humidity 94%

max temp 10.4c at 01:38hrs

min temp 5.5c at 07:02hrs

pressure 977.9hpa falling

rainfall 5.5mm

wind direction wsw

24hrs predicted weather rain

sunrise 07:27hrs

sunset 16:50hrs

Storm, I presume the actual temperature in the above reading must have reflected a current/recent shower, in that it matches the wind chill?

[Stratosphere Temperature Watch]

Thanks Ch,

That'll keep me busy for a while.

I find this whole site amazing, a level of knowledge and resources that is fantastic. I think we are all lucky that the internet allows the sharing of such knowledge in a way that even 20 years ago was impossible.

And what it shows me is that the more we know, the less we understand.

Well said!

Thanks Chionomaniac, very interesting and informative. Now if only I can find the correlation between these factors and the sneezing dolphins off the southwest coast, this time next year we could all be millionaires!

[Todays Weather And General Chat]

Hopefully the last benign mild autumn day of the season (only because I have become tired of such weather now and after all we are entering Nov and such days should no longer be occuring). Tomorrow looks like staying dry until early afternoon, thereafter going downhill, still mild but with the generally more overcast skies and then rain it will not fall into the benign category.

Looks like it will over much of England, and East Scotland, no?

Anybody know what's the highest temp recorded anywhere in these islands over the past few days? And the highest in each country?

[October (and November) Weather Lore]

If it's mild according to Tommy Tucker,

The the winter's going to be a real cold affair.

Heh heh :lol:

Some great ones above there lads and lasses.

If a november polar high does come, the winter polar lows will run...........

If a polar low in November appears, 'twill be the coldest winter for years!

[Today's Weather And General Chat]

Breezy and glorious here, warm. Am relieved, because sometimes a southerly, especially late/early in the year, can bring damp, misty conditions here, due to my location on the coast/in relation to the Bay. It can be a hairsbreath of difference in the wind-direction and other factors

[Model Output Discussion]

At last something to watch, for me here this has been a generally boring winter, the beginning of December and a bit of February was exciting, and there was some nice, sunny, frosty weather for a while in December, other than that there has been alot of very tedious weather, with very few storms at least, whatever about cold.

Im always amazed how a major cold, stormy blast from Greenland/the Arctic comes at the end of Feb/first week of March almost every year like clockwork. One of the best was (I think) in Feb/March 2001, producing a 24 to 36-hour blizzard here

[The Times: The Atlantic v Scandinavian block; Jan 1924]

The jet going around to the north of the high is far too strong. Therefore the high is not shown exerting/penetrating its influence further west/northwest. In the 1924 situation shown for example, a weaker high over Scandinavia does not have a strong southwesterly flow going around it to the north.

I can only assume that current blocking highs dont have the influence they had in the past, due to the complete absence, in winter, of any kind of reliable Arctic high, with the jet always flattening the block and forcing it south and east.

Like Sandy, I dont see any real penetration of the cold air from the east, the low seems to just about drag in some continental air, but even that has its true origin to our south, which by then has been very mild for several days.

A fairly big upgrade would still be needed to get any real cold penetrating from the east

[Constant switching between drought and deluge?]

I have noticed this trend since September, and by the 2nd half of October I knew it was something remarkable. By now it's heading towards quite a phenomenon, considering Autumn is one of the wettest times of the year (by the averages) and also a time when rain tends to be quite frequent, though not as intense as in summer or spring.

I dont have any figures for here, but my overall impression is that further west in these islands has been drier than further east. I cant recall a drier period at this time of year, and adding in the 2nd half of August, we have now had an extremely dry 3 month period. The next couple of weeks look like possibly could go either way - either cold & mostly dry, with maybe some showery precipitation, or quite wet and probably cold, though again it looks borderline whether it will be persistant rain bands, or more showery. Overall, high potential for the very dry theme to continue

I have noticed this trend since September, and by the 2nd half of October I knew it was something remarkable. By now it's heading towards quite a phenomenon, considering Autumn is one of the wettest times of the year (by the averages) and also a time when rain tends to be quite frequent, though not as intense as in summer or spring.

I dont have any figures for here, but my overall impression is that further west in these islands has been drier than further east. I cant recall a drier period at this time of year, and adding in the 2nd half of August, we have now had an extremely dry 3 month period. The next couple of weeks look like possibly could go either way - either cold & mostly dry, with maybe some showery precipitation, or quite wet and probably cold, though again it looks borderline whether it will be persistant rain bands, or more showery. Overall, high potential for the very dry theme to continue

[Are we starting to cool: the case for the last three months]

How's it looking so far for October? My impression has been of quite a warm month overall, only a few chilly nights, no real frosts, and the prospect of a continuing very mild trend over the next week (taking night-time values into account)

[Weather Action Blizzard Forecast...]

Or even a gnat!

Piers, God love him, isnt the only one, back in November & early December I read quite a few "amateur" forecasts which confidently predicted that many factors were pointing towards a strong likelihood of some severe cold spells. As time has gone by, almost NOTHING has changed, the whole of Europe is practically snowless and above zero, New York is expecting 21 degrees C tomorrow. This all goes to prove one thing: forecasters know little or nothing of what the upper atmospheric, ocean, solar and plant & wildlife factors really mean in detail as regards our weather. Forecasters need to rapidly readjust to the modern warmer climate, so that what we may be experiencing as "mild" could be actually relatively "cool" compared to what the average is becoming. In Australia any day when the temperature is around 10 degrees C is considered as "very cold". You get my drift (and sorry to say, it wont be snow)

[Wintertime easterlies]

Hi TWS and stargazer.

on Trevor Harleys site at http://www.personal.dundee.ac.uk/~taharley..._in_january.htm Between the 7th of January and 20th of January, only one day recorded an above freezing temperature at Gatwick. (that reading was 1C with the other 12 days ranging from 0c to -7.

in South London a temperature of -9.1C was recorded, "probably equalling or lower than the previous lowest minimum in London (see 1841 and 1867)."

50cms of snow fell in Cornwall and 45cms in some Eastern parts.

The 12th of January saw many places receive their coldest day of the century.

If only we could get a cold spell like that now! <_<

I dont know the details, but I remember this: January 12/13th was the first 24 hour period since records began that not one weather observation site in the whole island of Ireland recorded a temperature above 0 degrees. I was very lucky to have got off school (4 miles from home) early because our PE was cancelled.

There had been hail & snow showers during the day, but in mid-afternoon the showers became heavier & merged into a long spell of heavy snow, which stuck on even the busiest roads, even at sea-level & right down to the coast (where the school was). This was VERY rare for the middle of the day, with an east wind, which is only just off the sea on the coast here.

My bus just about made it back to where I live, and then I was able to spend the rest of the day just watching the blizzard. Every other class had to walk home from school.

That night a trough of low pressure moved up from Biscay and produced a real blizzard with gale-force SE winds

[Wintertime easterlies]

You are probably thinking about 27/28 February 2001, when an area of heavy persistent snow moved south-westwards and dumped a fair covering on Belfast. Parts of south-west Scotland had 50-60cm of undrifted snow. In NE England, snow accumulated only inland, though east-coast areas then went on to pick up significant accumulations from the snow showers that followed behind.

As for March 1987, it's unlikely that it was the 23rd-24th; too warm. It could have happened on the 21st though:

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/archive/ra/19...00119870321.gif

Thanks for that, it could easily have been another late March in that era (havent time to search for it right now) or else my dates are confused. The main thing I recall is that it was very much un-forecast by the main Met services.

Regarding the 2001 snowstorm, the LP system moved south/south east, with a very cold northerly & rising pressure from Greenland behind it resulting in a NNE flow wedge across Ireland, Scotland, North & West Britain on that day. In the hillier parts of Co Down & Co Wicklow here the drifts were magnificent

[Wintertime easterlies]

I think it was 18th/19th March 1987 and it may have been a polar low. The Gold Cup at Cheltenham was delayed by a heavy snow shower.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/archive/ra/19...00119870318.gif

I recall what must have been the same period, but my hazy memory has it as March 23/24 (how can I find the charts for those dates?). The forecast barely mentioned a risk of snow, it was a chilly night, fairly calm with a slight air frost, a weak area of low pressure with a cold front crossed from the North West, then intensified and rain turned to snow here during the night, by the following morning there was about 3 inches on the ground. It melted fairly quick but the day was very cold & windy with scattered snow showers.

Regarding the "cold enough to snow" discussion, I've felt for years that cold incursions, while overall rarer, are also "less cold than they used to be in my day", due to the factors ,mentioned already (sources are less cold, sea temps warmer, incursions less penetrating and less persistant etc)

The great snow-storm of end Feb/start March (cant recall exact date) 2001 (2002?) is a good example, it was as good an incursion of Arctic Northerly (originally a plunge from north Greenland) as you could wish for, coupled with a deep low pressure slipping slowly south east through these islands, resulting in about 24 hours of heavy snow here, but it never really stayed on the ground. In previous eras I'm sure it would have been that degree or so colder.

This all begs the depressing question - (OT but on topic regarding northerlies from Greenland), if this warming continues apace (and increasing in pace), how long before all the factors accelerate a combined effect, Greenland gets greener and our weather will be vastly warmer, and so much less interesting, in a short space of time? Will we soon be talking about a westerly gale and a cool high pressure as being events of great excitement?

[December CET]

I've looked at all the synoptic models linked on Wetterzentrale and they all show that the band of warm high pressure over SE Europe/West Eurasia, the Azores and now west to the Eastern States/Canada will strengthen in the next two weeks, taking over the Med, the North/East Atlantic and the Iberian Peninsula, eventually France & exerting a strong influence over these Islands, along with a weakening Jet, resulting in what could well be a record mild (warm?) for many parts of the Northern Hem, especially Europe.

This pattern tends not to change much through winter months once established. Where on earth did people get all the "-ve NAO/AO, weak to mod El Nino, some severe spells of cold" predictions from? Wishful thinking in an era of incessant warming

[Will it ever get cold?]

Morning all

this report via yahoo and reuters does not bode well.

MOSCOW (Reuters) - Russia's capital, renowned for its trademark frosty winters, started the calendar winter with the warmest day recorded in December, the state weather monitoring unit said on Friday.

Russia started to record temperatures in 1879. December 1 this year is likely to beat the previous record set on December 4, 1953, a Rosgidromet spokeswoman said.

"In 1953 the temperature was plus 4.2 degrees Celcius (39.6 Fahrenheit), and tonight it will be plus 4.5 degrees (40.1 Fahrenheit)," she said. "We can call it a new record."

The average temperature for December in Moscow is around minus 4 degrees Celcius. The spokeswoman said cylcones in the north Atlantic have created unusually warm weather in central Russia.

LO

:blush: Hello everyone, I'm a new member here, and this little competition is a great idea.........though as others have said above, it's looking like after a few years of somewhat chillier winters, we're heading back into the late 80s/early 90s pattern with a bang (is that due to the return of El Nino, added to the years of overall steady climate warming of course?)

The warm blocking high over Central Europe & the Med has slipped a bit, but is still over East Europe, with no sign of the Siberian high getting a grip at all. The above info about Moscow doesnt surprise me one bit, I've been following the stats even just casually in the last few weeks and cant recall such a warm November & start to December in North & East Europe.

Was in Frankfurt a week ago, was 17 degrees C, with many trees still having greenish leaves, crazy. At this rate the famous Christmas Markets will see people in fashions more typical of the festive season at Bondi Beach or in Hawaii B)

On a more positive note for us cold sympathisers & planet environmental balance worriers, the North American Continent has seen some cold so far, though forecasts show that receding this week. Atlantic charts give me some hope that by the end of this week colder air may have moved in over these islands from the Northwest

With mild air still over the Continent, this means that only the North & west of Britain and Ireland has any realistic chance of any white stuff in the next 7 days or so............ :blush:

In regards to the competition, is there any chance we could select our own dates? It's a real lottery with pre-ordained dates................I know, it's a lottery anyway! :blush:

My predictions:

231206 Belfast-2

251206 Inverness-3

080107 King's Lynn-2

260107 Carlisle-3

040207 Dundee-2

260207 Middlesborough-3

010307 Derby-2

040307 Ipswich-2

311206 London-1

Now what's with all the Aberystwith predictions? West coast of Wales, snow?? :o Also Dublin Airport has had virtually no snow in the past 4 years, due to it mainly hitting the north and west, and the east wind not being cold enough anymore. Still, law of averages and all that................