Uncle_Barty

Doesn't start til March! unless you meant 'FI' of course.... I'm looking at up to 72 hours only for now... further than that is FI. Just to echo the point made above - GP's posts are very handy when looking at the bigger long range picture. My gut feeling is that it's 50/50 for another severe outbreak such as the one we've just had.

I like what TWO have done and had a separate thread for mesoscale / short term model analysis, maybe something we could adopt here. I am not surprised that things have turned out slightly different to that forecast WRT snow - history is littered with such events and I always temper any snow forecasts with a remark that these things can turn out differently - it's simply the nature of the beast. Exactly as happened here last Tuesday. Anyway - back to the models. Plenty of uncertainty beyond 72-96h and I am taking on board GP's comments that the models may well struggle for a few days with upstream developements suggesting that the building blocks may be there for a renewed attack of cold from the E/NE in a week-10 days. WE shall see!

I thought we'd need 1000-850mb thicknesses of around 1290 or less for snow? Above that, it becomes very marginal?

Game over for us for now. Warnings for Dorset have been withdrawn. Hey-ho.

I'm expecting an inch overnight.... Of rain. Don't know what we have to do to get snow here. Just before the rasn arrived, temps and dewpoints rose just enough to make it the wrong side of marginal. I said at work that it would rain. No-one believed me.

guys it's FI ("eff-eye") and nothing to do with Messrs. Button, Hamilton and co! The fact it's still a few days away shouldnt raise too many alarms at this stage, though of course it's possible that GFS has picked up on something. Will wait to see what the like of GP/Chiono have to say as to how it fits with the latest teleconnections....

Thanks Kold. ECM indicating sub -35c air over us between 120 and 168h or so then.

What sort of temperatures at 500hpa are indicative of deep cold air?

I'd say Messrs. Hamilton, Button and Schumacher are better Anyway - it is 'only one run', and FI is probably t+120 max given the highly unusual situation.

It was always going to be an utter rainfest down here. Only question is how cold will the rain be.

To answer Steve B's question - Cycle 24 is just getting underway. Solar minimum looks to have been Dec 08, Cycle 24 max is likely to be about 2013 or so.

with the 546 line close to the south coast.. just very wet, especially down south.

Anything that breaks the run of cold rain, more cold rain and yet more cold rain over the past few days will do for me. 1050 Greeny high showing up as the 18z rolls out http://www.wzkarten.de/pics/Rtavn361.png

I would think it extremely unlikely. Minimum at the station here was -1.7c and when the rain started it had risen to -0.5 or so, and continued rising slowly as the rain fell. THere was a sudden increase in temps to around 5c together with the wind going round to southerly around 0840-0900. 11.8mm of horrid cold rain today. Can't wait for the blowtorch SW'lys to return......

Horrendous here this morning. Lots of yet more cold rain falling onto frozen surfaces. Temp just on zero but a layer of ice on everything. I had to de-ice the front gate before I could open it. Main A338 in/out of Bournemouth closed after numerous accidents and majot disruption. And still no snow. If this is all the cold spell can give us then good riddance and I will welcome the mild southwesterlies with open arms when they eventually return.

Blimey that's some outburst! Hate to think what you might have put had you been down here in Bournemouth......

Morning. Temp 0.1c DP -2.5 And it's raining.

Temp here 2.1 and rising - as is the Dewpoint which has been rising all afternoon and evening standing at -1c. It's going to be rain here by the looks of things. Shame, because it was probably Bournemouth's only shot at snow before this cold spell ends with Monday's milder air and rain.

I know I don't really need to say it - but not a thing in Bournemouth. Not much danger of adding to the 2 snow events we have had so far this century looking at the radar either. It's all sliding south and east of us.

-8c 850 air over us now - dewpoints dropping now down to -2, air temp below 4c. Would think that snow more likely than rain with those figures, if anything falls. It's not far away according to the radar. Next 24h could be interesting.

Some flakes of snow here at Bournemouth airport. Not expecting it to last or stay as snow due to the warmer uppers coming in from the north. Temp 3.3, dp -0.7 at home in Bournemouth so very marginal as it is.

With good reason! Feb 86 didnt deliver a thing and Feb 1991 gave us barely a covering. WE really need a proper channel low and cold air to deliver properly down here, think we have had three of those in the past 25 years (1985, 1987 and 1994 (I think that was a CL, have to check the archives. Feb this year did give us an inch though, as did the thundersnow of Jan 2004.

I doubt we get anything in Bournemouth. Slack easterlies don't really do it for us, and neither do northerlys whick dry out by the time they get down here. Doesn't look potent enough for us this time out.

Precisely. I remember prior to the cold spells of 1985 and 1987 that it was around now that the more Eastern parts of Europe were starting to cool - yesterday the Baltic states were areound 1-2c, today it's -1 to -3. In both cases, the main cold arrived after New Year and if we keep this pattern then it will probably be the same this winter. The cold needs to take a hold on the Continent before we get a freeze-up of our own, in an easterly situation. I am not paying much attention at all to the finer points of output beyond t+72, only the general pattern. It will also be interesting to see what pans out given the diferences between the GFS operational model and the parallel one, and that the parallel has been so consistent with its output.

windy and showery here, looking at the radar will remain so for the forseeable.