Uncle_Barty

Solar activity now is a little higher than it was in 1975/6........ I've never placed much store on solar activity versus weather patterns. July 1988 for example came at a time of high solar activity, as did the winters of 78/9 and 1981/2.

And with the MJO having moved into weak phase 4 and then smartly back to the centre ("neutral"? whats the correct terminology?), I guess we won't be seeing a change any time soon. How often is the GWO chart updated? Last update was the 8th.

Will be interesting to see what it looks like when it updates... last update was the 8th. What sort of movement would we need to see to give us some hope of a pattern change down the line?

Disregard my last - found it. http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/MJO.html

Incidentally... I was looking back through this thread for links to the 500mb anomaly MJO charts and came up with http://raleighwx.easternuswx.com/MJO.html But that link appears to be dead. GP or Chiono (or anyone else..) - do you have an up to date link please?

MJO forecast: Not experienced at all at reading these but CFS seems to send it into Phase 5/6 then back into 'neutral'... What are the possible implications should that come off?

Clear and 15.8c already. Gonna be a good one. Will be lighting the barbie this evening, looks likely to be the last real opportunity this side of the middle of the month at least.

To be fair to John, the info is all in there, Geoff, and that is as much detail as one could possibly give.

Northern blocking and a more southerly-latitude tracking jet, so another 2007 or 2008? I hope to god that is not the case. What do you think, GP?

Not Blackberry?

Good idea - look forward to it. Maybe Martin Gibbs' excellent summaries that have started to make a very welcome appearance here could also be included, unless it is intended that they are each separate threads.

Agree - solar flux and sunspot levels are significantly above 'rock bottom' values, even if they are still well below the levels seen at recent (most 20th century) solar maxima.

Is that being hinted at then, C?

Thanks, Paul!

Hi, Is there a list of the various map descriptions available with the filenames when doing a custom map? I know one can select a map and view the description froma pop up box but if you're trying to find a particular one it's a bit time consuming. TIA....

12c or less here for the bulk of the day.

And that's why I always say that nothing is ever nailed on until it arrives. There was certainly a trend to move the high south over the BI and that might yet still happen! It's all down to specifics that are chopping and changing all the time. Personally I am using the model output as a guide, together with the valuable mutterings of GP et al.

To be honest, I don't think we can say the the uncertainty will ever be over until there is a huge pattern change and we lose the northern blocking/ -AO etc, ending up in a more 'normal' pattern... this being some weeks away I expect. The models have been flip-flopping all over the place for some weeks now and in all honesty I think we can only look at them for trends if anything beyond t+96 or so.

Nice work fellas. Looking forward to the fully-featured release. BTW anyone know why the GFS overlays arn't working on the V4?

It's still a long way off in weather terms and it's never 'in the bag' or 'nailed on' until it arrives. Plenty of time for downgrades (and upgrades!) and backtracks and a lot is down to detail. Certainly looks good for coldies next week IF it all verifies.

That thundersnow (28 Jan 04) came as a result of a very active cold front/line squall that came straight down from the north introducing arctic air for a day or two. A northerly airflow almost never delivers snow down here on the coast as the air is too dry by the time it gets here. I am expecting a few crisp cold dry days out of this before it turns less cold next week.

The sun has been geomagmetically very quiet - the planetary A-index has not exceeded a value of 10 since the end of October. Personally I dont at all buy the theory that sunspot activity has much (if any) of an influence on our synoptic patterns. I can point to plenty of occasions when we have had all sorts of synoptic patterns with all sorts of sunspot and geomagnetic activity levels (the winter of 1981/2 occurred at a time of high sunspot activity and magnetic storms). Anyway, that's going a bit off-topic for this thread so I shall stop there!

Thanks, bluearmy, thats what I thought.

Quick question... I have read about the 'Atlantic trough being negatively tilted' recently - can someone explain what that means? Is it a reference to the axis of the trough not being north/south, but more north-west/south-east? or is it north-east/south-west?!

Quick question... I have read about the 'Atlantic trough being negatively tilted' recently - can someone explain what that means? Is it a reference to the axis of the trough not being north/south, but more north-west/south-east? or is it north-east/south-west?!