Jump to content
Will it snow? 7 day forecast Weather Radar Will it be cold?
Snow?
Local
Radar
Cold?

Uncle_Barty

Members
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    469

  • Joined

  • Last visited

 Content Type 

Everything posted by Uncle_Barty

  1. Uncle_Barty
    Interesting points BftP. There has been a change with ther summer patterns as well with a lot of northern blocking prevalent. On another note... I don't consider "building blocks" as such, more a case of Reason's Cheese (wiki Swiss Cheese Model). All the holes in the cheese need to line up for a "big freeze", especially down south.
  2. Uncle_Barty
    ah - thats better! thanks.
  3. Uncle_Barty
    Is it me or are the figures out of kilter with the article in the 2nd link? Finding it very hard to follow logically...
  4. Uncle_Barty
    Aldergrove fell from 11c at 1250 to 4c at 1320
  5. Uncle_Barty
    Maxed at 23.8c today, about a degree down on yesterday thanks to a light sea breeze. Also 9-10 miles of solid queuing traffic out of Bournemouth all the way to Ringwood due to sheer volume of traffic, normally only see that in summer. TomTom Live showing in excess of one hour delay just to get the other side of Ringwood. Ouch!
  6. Uncle_Barty
    Don't feed the troll... I suspect his account won't be alive for much longer anyway.
  7. Uncle_Barty
    That's what I said back in 1985!
  8. Uncle_Barty
    Mad to think that no June 13th has ever been as hot as today
  9. Uncle_Barty
    24.0c here now which breaks my October record back to and including 1996.
  10. Uncle_Barty
    Interesting to note that the MJO has suddenly moved from the neutral area into Phase 2, which suggests high height anomalies over the UK stretching NW over Grenland and down through Canada to the Mid-west, and low anomalies over Newfoundland and eastern Europe into Russia. Make of that what you will!
  11. Uncle_Barty
    Worth noting that in the past week, the MJO has moved quickly through phase 1, then phase 2 - the latter in 3 days flat to the 16th and looks to be about to move into Phase 3. Composites for July suggest a height anomaly centred west of Ireland but also exttending over the UK into the near Continent. For August the suggestion is for the height anomaly centred north of Scotland.
  12. Uncle_Barty
    Would concur re: 1981. August was decent here in Dorset after an indiferent June and July
  13. Uncle_Barty
    I'm not sure about high pressure for Sunday - the isobaric curvature is still cyclonic on every chart you link to, bar Monday. Looks like Monday only gives a respite before the next low moves in on Tuesday. Long way off though!
  14. Uncle_Barty
    ridge of low pressure? I assume you mean trough.....
  15. Uncle_Barty
    Thats assuming the MJO forecast is accurate, mushy. It's been forecast to move into Phase 1 for some time but is still stuck stubbornly in neutral. Not an expert, but I'm guessing that's the reason why the general pattern has remained unchanged. Fair comment, chiono/GP? Edit: MJO moved into low-amplitude phase 8 yesterday. Lets see where it goes in tne next few days....
  16. Uncle_Barty
    High pressure, or to be more exact, high 500mb heights over Greenland usually has a detrimental effect on summer prospects here, but you can get poor summer weather here without those heights over Greenland, as July 1988 shows. However, the lowering of heights over Greenland after a protracted spell can herald a pattern change which will perhaps lead to an improvement in the weather over the UK generally. Probably why some (including myself) are very keen to see those heights drop.
  17. Uncle_Barty
    Both ECM and GFS show heights over Greenland dropping towards the 8-10 day mark. Little way off of course but lets see..... Some model output also showing hints of the MJO moving into Phase 8 which would not be bad news at all for those wanting settled weather. It's currently neutral/low amplitude Phase 1 and has hardly moved in recent days, despite forecasts of it marching solidly into Phase 1 (that caused Chiono's "I dont believe it!" outburst a week or two back.).
  18. Uncle_Barty
    I prefer his posts to the one-line "terrible run" or similar kind of posts, or worse, deliberately trying to wind up people. At least he is taking a view and backing it up with evidence.. even if it is often in FI. I really don't have a problem with his posts.
  19. Uncle_Barty
    towards phase 1 and forecast to move strongly that way by pretty much everyone. The model output Tuesday onwards does reflect the Phase 1 composites for July.
  20. Uncle_Barty
    MJO forecasts are mixed - many suggesting a move into Phase 1 (not good news from the July composites - a continuation of the pattern that has persisted for much of this month) but one or two edging towards phase 8 which suggests something a lot better for summer prospects (+ve height anomalies over UK and Scandinavia), so it seems that it's all up for grabs. I am taking any model output beyond the end of the week with a warehouse of salt.
  21. Uncle_Barty
    MJO moving into Phase 2 suggestiung lowering heights over Greenland on the July composites. Most forecasts suggest MJO moving into phase 1 which wouldnt be great news as it suggests a continuation of the June pattern for most if not all for us. However, the ECM ensembles are forecasting an eventual move into phase 8 which would be better news for summer: So it's all up for grabs, methinks. Your thoughts Chiono/GP? you're far more experienced at looking at these things than I am.
  22. Uncle_Barty
    Really doesnt look too bad down south - ok no heatwave but definitely an improvement on the middle third of this month. Further north and west looks like being plagued by troughs but even then not to the extent of recent weeks.. at least the troughing looks less deep and heights are generally higher everywhere.
  23. Uncle_Barty
    Interesting. GP/Chiono.. is this sudden change in the GWO behind the change in the model output of late?
  24. Uncle_Barty
    Indeed, Phase 1 would not be good news! However, a number of forecasts are still projecting Phase 2: which removes the high anomalies over Greenland but still indicates an upper trough over the UK if I am reading it right?
  25. Uncle_Barty
    MJO now generally forecast to move into Phase 2 by early July.... Composite anomaly chart looks more encouraging for something more summery perhaps? Chiono?
×
×
  • Create New...