Uncle_Barty

Agreed - the models did pretty well with this event. Got the rain for here spot on - apart from anything else, we had 10cm of snow last winter which was probably 10 years worth for this location, and as it is not 2020 yet, I knew we would get only rain here!

It's showing the lightest rain/snowfall detectable and I believe due to the low dewpoints in advance of the band of precip, it is evaporating before reaching the ground.

Think I just saw a flake in the rain here, but not sure.

As expected.

Just waiting for the rain to arrive here.....

Google "decode TAF". It's actually fairly straightforward. A useful tool in "nearcasting" is decoding the various TAFs (Aerodrome forecasts)

Less cold air moving in from W. Simple as that.

For future reference.... It is Fantasy Island, not Formula One. I have seen a few posts saying a certain model has "won" - lets get this right - no model has "won" until verification, I certainly wouldn't be calling "victory" for any model when we are still 5 days out! It is looking like we are not in for an extended cold spell on recent output, but there is still a long way to go and things could change again. Weather, eh?!

First air frost of the winter this morning - minimum of -0.6c, andn the first since early last March

One the one hand NorthernRab is exactly right - reading the thread posts from last night I was thinking "it'll be gone in the morning", and hey presto! I don't agree with Brum Watcher's commments though - no model has "won" until verification time, which is still at least a week away. Look for inter-run and inter-model agreement before getting too excited - last night/this morning is a classic lesson on that score for those of you who have not been model-watching for very long.

Those maps from 1947 are not model output - they are actual surface analyses.

Thanks.. thought I was going a bit crazy for a bit! The AP-index is a measure of geomagnetic disturbance on Earth. Sunspot number and Solar Flux are roughly in sync with the level of solar activity. Good link to recent and historical activity here: http://www.solen.info/solar/

Indeed. At such a time of change and uncertainty, I , more than usual, really would not be looking beyond Day 6 right now. We need to see how the 500mb pattern settles - would be far more useful than looking at T+240 and noting that that low near Greenland is 5mb deeper compared with the 06z, or the russian high is 20 miles further west... futile, IMHO.

Are you kidding?? Where do you get that from?? The level of solar activity over the past six months is higher than it has been at any time since 2002/3. While not quite as high as during the last solar maximum in 1999-2001, it has still been at a decent level.

That was the conclusion I came to. Very likely due to the changes in the strat profiles. There really is no point looking at the finer nuances of the MO at 8-10+ days out at the moment. All solutions are up for grabs at that range.

Just gone through here in Whiteley - quite impressive.

Almost entirely unremarkable here bar a lovely April and end Sept/Beginning of Oct, and the amazing rainfall of 18th August in these parts. Not a single flake of snow, and no air frost since early March. A rather poor summer with a lot of northern blocking, with little in the way of reliable good weather. On the plus side, winter has been pretty mild so far.

AS I have mentioned before, no point in looking beyond 8 days or so for the weather pattern around our parts. Because of the upstream changes already having an effect on the model output, just because it is looking zonal for, say, 8th January now, does not necessarily mean that it will still be looking zonal by the 3rd of Jan, i.e. 5 days ahead. The model output is likely to change - to exactly what, who knows. I certainly will not write off the next 2 weeks as mild and zonal (much as I would like it to be!), for the reasons above.

Have you read the last couple of pages of this thread??? There are changes afoot.. what it will mean for us is too early to say but the models, while indicating a continuing zonal picture for the next few days at least, are also showing changes in the polar regions which IF they verify, will have a knock-on effect for us down the line. To say time is running out, on the 28th December, is IMHO a ridiculous statement to make. No wonder newer members of this board get confused at times...

Indeed. My "Ignore" list of posters with an agenda (one way or the other) is growing daily. Back to the models... Things are clearly on the change WRT upper patterns - but to what is impossible to tell right now. Time to be patient for a few days and see what happens with the model output. In the short term, average or mild, and zonal continues to be the order of the day for the next 6-7 days which is as far as I would seriously look for the moment.

I refer you to my post #221 in this thread :winky: OK, perhaps not exactly as I said in that post, having had a closer look (it's early!) but perhaps the fact that it's at not far short of T+300 might offer a clue...

There you go.... No sign of any blocking up there on GFS.. but then we knew that!

This is a very good point. Taking the London ensembles for example.. look at the pressure rather than the T850, it's a better guide as to what is going on. Follow each individual perturbation - (even the operational and control) show a similar shape but out of phase with the others. The majority show a zonal pattern with lows moving across from time to time. I also see one or two mentioning the ECM as similar to GFS. Take a look at the Northern Hemisphere chart - OK it's at T+240 so in early-medium FI ECM: GFS: ECM has been consistent for a few runs now in showing some amplification of the general pattern, and tonight is no different.

That is perfectly normal! t+240 isn't known as FI for nothing.....

Not really. Look at the colours over most of Greenland. Still blue, indicating low heights at the 500mb level. Surface high pressure over Greenland is just that - you need blocking at higher levels too otherwise any high pressure there will most likely be transitory. This is a proper Greeny block -