Uncle_Barty

Intefresting times. I have a commute from Bournemouth to Whiteley and back. Tomorrow might be interesting I think.... Just avoided an ice day in Bournemouth - topped out at 0.4c before dropping back below zero in last few mins. Here at work looking at the tops of the clouds in the Channel.

the dusting we had in Bournemouth yesterday has sublimated overnight. Still looking like "West is best" for tomorrow/Fri if it's snow you want. Gut feel here is we may just get a covering here in Bournemouth before it turns to rain.

...like it scuppered the easterlies/big freezes in 1947, 1979, 1982, 1991, you mean ?? No,no,no... those all occurred at times of high solar activity, at solar MAXIMUM! Dont get hung up on short term spikes in solar activity, never mind longer-term ones.

Whats the latest on the IOS version? My current version has "expired".

Unfortunately the improving weather is always a week away, of late, if it is there at all.

Just got the updated version (iPhone 6s, 10.0.1) also iPad which isn't to hand right now. Zoom issue I reported (zoom in too far and the radar data disappears), has been fixed by limiting the zoom level. Guess there is a reason we cant zoom in any further. The colour scale is way too small to read on an iphone. I am an Extra subscriber, happy to test the Extra version.

Huh? It's not just been spotless for 27 days!? Check www.solen.info/solar and solarham.net

Does this imply an increasing likelihood of unsettled weather /troughing/mobile w'ly as the main summer pattern is set, meaning a decent August is once again less likely?

What???! Next week's weather hasn't happened yet....... How anyone could claim that one model has trumped another wrt the weather that isnt even going to happen for 7 days yet is beyond me, sorry.

Got that one wrong then, didn't i?!

I suspect not. think it will all form north and west of here. The somewhat disturbed looking mid-level cloud formations seem to have gone and clouds melting away here. Not going to rule it out altogether, of course, but unless something blows up very quickly to the south, we're in for a quiet and probably dry night here.

There is still plenty of time for this to be all shunted East. I'm not buying it until it's at t+48. Seen it happen so often before, even with good inter-model agreement. As soon at the DE runs the heatwave headline, the models will back down!

Tamara, Is it too simplistic to say low AAM = static global patterns? Can you suggest any further reading where I can improve my knowledge of the various teleconnections (you speak about in your post), how they knit together etc?

Thanks for that analysis, Tamara, even if it makes for somewhat concerning reading for those who want a reasonably decent July - if this is the NH pattern setting up for the business end of summer, then could we see repeated Pacific-originating jet streaks reinforcing the downwind pattern that means any attemps at ridging over the UK gets flattened by the next LP? 1988 anybody? Incidently, the dry June was broken on this very day in 1988 and that summer never really recovered....

I've heard it used plenty of times. Someone at Southampton Weather Centre (can't rememeber if it was Ted Young or Peter Cresswell) would often use it in broadcasts on BBC Radio Solent. Ah, the good old days.....

When you talk about "warm air over Western Atlantic/Greenland" do you actually mean high T850s, or do you really mean heights (at 500mb) producing yellows and oranges on the SLP/500mb maps?? I suspect it is the latter as looking at the T850s in those parts, they are sub-5c in the main.

It will only get shifted east in time anyway. Usually does from my experience.

Not so much "Summer is over", daft statement to make on May 29th, but certainly "on hold indefinitely" from the current output. The sheer amount of northern blocking being modelled has all the hallmarks of a washout summer from recent times about it. BUT I seem to recall that we were having a similar discussion this time last year, and for a time the model output looked pretty pessimistic, with plenty of northern blocking/NW Euro trough. but as we all remember, it did turn around fairly swiftly with an OK June in the end. Let's hope we are looking at rather different output a week from now.......

It was January 1990, and Burns Day is 25th which is when the storm was.

If Shed had added the word "consistent" somewhere, then he really would have been spot on. There are NO consistent signs of a change to the pattern being shown by all the models in the 7-10 day timeframe, and until there is, then a continuation of current conditions, albeit perhaps less severe then they have been, looks to be an absolute banker. I do concede that things can change very quickly, and that come the end of the first week of January, we might be looking down the barrel of a significant cold spell. But there is nothing consistent to suggest that now. I do not call picking out odd perturbments at t+204 a consistent sign!

Probably not. it's not being "supported" by increasing heights in that area - still blues at 500mb, you need greens and yellows starting to show there.

dear god, what sort of wind speeds would that produce?? That would wreck Bournemouth v Yeovil as a spectacle.....

To me, it seems the whole normal pattern has been shifted north. True, it's not raging zonality, but there is a fair element of zonality - but it is well north, leaving us in this largely benign pattern. (fine by me - lower heating bills, no travel and sporting disruption ! Hope this lasts till March...) Perhaps this is a case where a disrupted vortex has not worked in "coldies' " favour, but has allowed the pattern to shift north. I don't think this is a "standard Bartlett" scenario as we don't have a strong-ish vortex allied to extensive lower-mid latitude blocking in a belt not far south of us. This isn't a 1988/89 yet. As someone else said a few posts ago, this can change fairly quickly given a shift in the long-wave pattern, so all is not lost for winter-lovers.

So which is it??? No wonder newcomers get confused.....

No-one I saw was taking the runs as gospel - we all know they were up to 168h away and therefore subject to big change. The point that someone was making is that the solution had been showing for 3-4 runs before the change on the latest one, so I'm really not sure what point you are trying to make here Interestingly, the GEM raises heights over Scandi which may open up the possibility of warmer air being advected off the Continent in time and serve to keep lows that bit further west. Dont dismiss that solution lightly, GEM did quite well with today, I think.