Uncle_Barty

I guess a lot depends on whether the lows in the atlantic gets held up and pumps up HP over Europe ahead of them... if the jet is not that strong then maybe the chances of that happening may be greater?

I must admit that I always get nervous when there is a pattern change for the worse around this end of June/start of July timeframe, as it is often this sort of time when the summer pattern beds in. I guess 1988 still sticks in the mind! After a dry June, July was terrible and August was pretty meh. Not seen anything from the likes of Tamara and others who post on the tropical teleconnections in recent days, may be the best indication as to whether a dip in AAM is bringing bringing this change and whether it is likely to be temporary or not.

Warmest places as of 1300 BST Woodvale (10 m)29.0 °C Bournemouth (10 m)28.0 °C Prestwick (27 m)28.0 °C Lakenheath (10 m)28.0 °C Exeter Airport (30 m)28.0 °C Keswick (81 m)28.0 °C Blackpool Airport (10 m)28.0 °C Cambridge (15 m)28.0 °C 28.5 Max here, not expecting that to be exceeded as the wind has gone round to south. Hurn still on for it though.

I replaced the RJ11 female back-to-back adapter on Sunday evening and it seems to have solved the problem.... at least, no sign of a recurrence in the 48 hours since. Looking at the one I replaced... there is just the hint of green in the small gap where I can see the rails, so perhaps the hint of corrosion of some sort. Begs the question, however, as to why the fault manifested itself with one anemometer (on the roof) but not the other (the spare as supplied when I bought the VP2 in 2009) - they are both reed switch types.

Hi all, Having a strange problem with my Davis Vantage Pro and anemometer. Setup is anemometer on roof + cable + 10m extension > ISS > VP console. Been this way since 2009 when I replaced the Weather Monitor II (can't remember if I've had to replace the anemometer due reed switch failure in that time, but definitely have either before or since). Suddenly, about a week ago, I started internittently recording winds of over 100mph, either briefly, or for minutes or hours at a time. I have a spare anemometer, and the WMII still works. So... I tried running the roof anemometer into the old WM2, works fine, both before and after the extension cable, no erroneous winds. I tried unplugging the roof anemometer and plugging the spare one into the extension cable, into the VP, no erroneous winds. I replaced the extension cable during the week as the previous one was spliced with a chocolate block, this is a proper screened 4 core cable supplied with RJ11 plugs. The only thing I have not changed is the female-female RJ11 adapter - I am waiting for a replacement to arrive tomorrow. The join is in a wall mounted waterproof box. I really don't understand this. The ONLY time I get errors is with the roof anemometer plugged into the VP ISS, all other combinations are fine. I have had anemometer failures before (reed switch failure), but never this. On Monday, I will call out my aerial man and get him to put the spare anemometer up (I will leave the existing one up as well) Has anyone else had this issue/got any ideas what the problem could be? I really don't understand this.

Solar cycles consist of more active and quieter periods superimposed on the general cycle curve. There was a drop off in activity to a certain extent during November but has picked up in December, and decidedly ramped up through the first half of this month to the extent that the solar flux has been above 200 for several days, peaking at 234 and has surpassed the highest daily official reading set in Cycle 24 (227.1). Interesting times for us radio guys. Latest summary of the cycle so far in my thread on the Skywaves forum linked to in this thread.

Thanks for the response. Snow is so rare down here I'll almost never have a problem.

Are you still using the sonic anemometer? My mechanical one has failed (direction stuck north), considering the sonic one as a replacement. Should need less maintenance as I have to get my friendly aerial man to help with maintenance. You mention about "changing a channel" - is it not cabled? Have you had any issues with rain or ice affecting readings? I seem to remember others having issues with 3rd party sonic models before Davis brought their own out.

My latest update on the progress of Solar Cycle 25 is here : ** Solar Cycle 25 Progress thread ** - Page 2 - Welcome to the Skywaves DX forum WWW.SKYWAVESDX.ORG

Last night's published solar flux was 251.9 !! However, this was flare-enhaned as a long-duration M flare was in progress at the time. The 2300z reading was 133.5 and I expect this to be the "official" value for the day.

yes.

Official sunspot count was actually zero a couple of days ago, but despite that, the solar flux was still around 100sfu. Quite a few regions about to rotate into view, so just one spotless day it is, then.

2 main reasons for this, so far as I'm concerned: 1. Active sunspot regions tend to be at higher latitudes in the earlier part of a solar cycle, meaning that eruptions are not quite as Earth directed as they would be if occurring closer to the equator. 2. During the declining part of the cycle, coronal holes (that promote higher solar wind) are more prevelant than during the early part of the cycle.

No, the X2.2 was early hours of the 20th. Mis-read the date on the original post, sorry. The X1 was also from the departing region close to the west limb at the time.

It was on the west limb. X2.2. That region just getting going as it rotates away. There was an M9 flare yesterday from the regions on the north-east side. Last 2 days solar flux 160.1 (Tues) and 165.5 (yesterday) new highs for Cycle 25. The feed of information on the Penticton website is still somewhat sporadic.

daily sfi just dropped below 100 over last few days - 27 day average peaked at nearly 122sfu before drifting down slightly to about 119sfu. the 3 month mean has also peaked at a cycle high of 113sfu, before steadying. The active region that produced the recent peak above 150sfu is due to return over the eastern limb any day now, signs are that it is still pretty active having produced a CME (not Earth-directed).

Yes, I contacted them, there are issues being worked on. Being updated again now but probably manually as they are not appearing til the following day in the case of the 2200 update.

Still pretty early days and my money at this stage is still on "cycle 24 +10-15%" as a peak, but we'll see. Looking at the same time frame in the last cycle, March 2011 saw solar flux peak at over 150sfu, but mean levels were lower than this time round. We'd still need a much bigger increase in activity from current mean levels to catch up with even an average cycle at the same stage. This could still happen, of course. Solar flux last night rose to 156 - Highest since June 2015. The rolling 27 day average has been over 100sfu since late December now, and the annual mean will be climbing quite steeply as we lose the activity of mostly in the 70s sfu of this time last year.

Latest update on Cycle 25 progress here. To summarise, I would still expect a peak a little higher, possibly by as much as 20%, compared with Cycle 24, but some scientists are still predicting something considerably larger, close to average.

The winds will have moderated by kick-off. We have been discussing this on the AFCB forum this week, and I think if anything (other than damage to the stadium) gets the game called off, it will be down to the risk to the travelling supporters. A call needs to be made on the morning of the game, really. Up The Cherries!

At least all the cones on the M27 will be gone by Friday morning. Either collected by Highways or blown away lol.

Solar flux for Friday and Saturday 113.4 and 125.3 respectively. The running 27 day (one solar rotation) mean, having risen above 100sfu on Boxing Day, remains above that level. Having peaked at 111sfu, it was on its way down but is now increasing again, currently 103sfu.

Incidentally.. the running 27-day mean solar flux (i.e. averaged over one solar rotation ) is currently 105.8 sfu. The running 3 month mean is 93sfu.

There will be ebbs and flows in the daily solar flux numbers, but the trend is firmly upwards. I remain extremely sceptical that sunspots have much, if any, effect on our weather (i.e. no sunspots = cold winters) - for example 1978/9 and 1981/2 winters came at a time of very high solar activity! I have updated my Solar Cycle 25 progress thread aimed at radio enthusiasts - it is here: ** Solar Cycle 25 Progress thread ** - Welcome to the Skywaves DX forum WWW.SKYWAVESDX.ORG

It is almost certainly not. We are well into the upswing of Cycle 25 now - we will get spells of activity like the one at the moment, or considerably higher, over the next few years. Long spells with solar flux in the 70s are now unlikely, as is more than the odd spotless day. Anticipate dips perhaps as low as 80 or so, and peaks challenging the 150 mark. Once the final December figures are in, I will post a summary of where we are in the new solar cycle.. but broadly, we are still tracking a little ahead of the last one at the same age (just about 2 years in)