Uncle_Barty

Exactly. It's why I don't take too much notice of the mean (other than for a quick comparison with the op), but wait for the clusters.

Any proper cold is ~10 days+ away yet. And that is only on one model (albeit they've been consistent) and ECM showing some tentative building blocks near the end of their run. Interesting viewing for sure, but coldies shouldnt be getting too excited until and unless there is cross model agreement at 72h maximum. I've seen too many forecasted cold spells fall apart at the last hurdle. over the years... Don't take model runs in isolation either, look at them all and look at trends. I know what will happen if the GFS p has a wobble..... Angry Mourinho.mp4

Updated the Cycle 25 Progress thread here : ** Solar Cycle 25 Progress thread ** - Welcome to the Skywaves DX forum SKYWAVESDX.ORG Suspect we will have a couple of quieter weeks with sfi dropping back into the 70s and perhaps a few spotless days once the current regions disappear west. No sign of any renewed activity coming over the eastern limb as yet.

It's working again now. 2200z values last night: Solar flux 89.4 (1au 86.5) WWV reporting 86, which will be the 2000z value.

Here; Geophysical Alert - WWV text | NOAA / NWS Space Weather Prediction Center WWW.SWPC.NOAA.GOV Solar flux is Updated once a day after 2100z and is the "raw" unadjusted value. The last month's data can be found here: https://solen.info/solar/indices.html I note that since the 16th, only integer values have been reported, so I guess something is up.

Interesting theory this... will make intriguing viewing to see how this cycle unfolds. I have posted a more detailed analysis and my thoughts of this cycle so far here: ** Solar Cycle 25 Progress thread ** - Welcome to the Skywaves DX forum SKYWAVESDX.ORG

Forecasts of possibly G3 storms with a K of up to 7 over the next couple of days. Keep those eyes peeled, especially up north. This is a result of the C7.4 flare on Monday which generated a full halo CME aimed at Earth. Solar activity taking a slight breather now as sfi declines, but a returning active region will rotate into view in 3-4 days.

1800 sfi values: Observed : 98.0 Adjusted: 95.1 There was a long duration C5 (or so ) flare in progress at the time which may have elevated the numbers. Suspect the 2000 readings will be lower, perhaps around the 90 mark.

Yes, that could well be it. Good shout. I hadn't thought of that.

Shortest is 9 years - back in the 1700s. More recently, Cycle 22 lasted 10 years. Cycle 24 was a little strange in that it had 2 peaks.. the first peak was dominated by activity from the northern hemisphere, the seconbd was dominated by activity from the southern hemisphere. Had the two hemispheres peaked together, we probably would have had a rather higher peak overall..... Interestingly... the burst of activity in recent weeks has mostly come from the southern hemisphere.... given that SH activity has lagged behind (in terms of time) NH, one would expect NH to be leading the charge now. In fact, what has happened is that after the NH peak in 2011, activity from the north has been consistently weak and isnt yet showing much sign of recovery. What this will mean for Cycle 25 is unclear.... See this graph from solen.info: https://solen.info/solar/images/cycle24.png

November stats: Monthly Sunspot Number 34.0. This value not reached in Cycle 24 til Sept 2010, 21 months after solar minimum. Monthly solar flux 90.1. This value not reached in Cycle 24 until Feb 2011, 26 months after solar minimum. November was Month 12 of cycle 25. Too early to say whether this is a flash in the pan, or a pointer towards a substantially bigger cycle this time.

Produced an almost full halo CME as well.. quite a long duration event. I was listening around on 40m at the time, at the time of the flare, almost all signals disappeared as the blackout took effect. 2000z solar flux 116 tonight - another Cycle 25 high.

yes, it;s been quite an abrupt rise in activity which continues to gather pace. Quite different to the start of C24 thus far. M4 flare in progress cant remember if it's the largest of the new cycle... appears to be right on the southeast limb from a region just rotating into view (probably old region 2781), so it's unlikely to be geoeffective.

Ah, I see what you mean - ok. Time will tell if this is an early freakishly high burst of activity for this stage of a low solar cycle similar in strength to the last one, or a sign that this cycle will be bigger than most are expecting. Cycle 22, for example, rebounded very quickly in 1987, but that was a much bigger cycle after a shallower minimum (annual mean solar flux was around 72sfu during that min) I have put a more detailed post about this recent minimum, and what we can possibly expect in the coming years, on a radio forum here: ** Solar Cycle 25 Progress thread ** - Welcome to the Skywaves DX forum SKYWAVESDX.ORG I will keep it updated every so often, as posts in here will quickly get lost among the daily reports.

sorry... what are you referring to?

Jeff.. where do you get that figure from, please?? Source?

Number of spotless days by year: 2019 total: 228 days (75%) (up to October '19) 2018 total: 221 days (61%) 2017 total: 104 days (28%) 2016 total: 32 days (9%) 2015 total: 0 days (0%) 2014 total: 1 day (<1%) 2013 total: 0 days (0%) 2012 total: 0 days (0%) 2011 total: 2 days (<1%) 2010 total: 51 days (14%) 2009 total: 260 days (71%) 2008 total: 268 days (73%) So yes, once things kicked off a bit more in early 2011, the spotless days stopped. 2010 comprised the 2nd year of Cycle 24, yet still had 51 spotless days. It remains to be seen if 2021 will have that many - early signs are that it probably won't, but who knows?!

Au contraire.... solar activity took a very long time to properly ramp up after the 23/24 minimum. Solar flux was still only peaking around the 90 mark in late 2010 - two years after the minimum - before finally ramping up a bit in the first half of 2011. It would be the 26th month (Feb 2011) after minimum before tonight's value of 100 would be reached. At the moment we are in month 13 of the new cycle. At the same stage - late in the second year after solar min, C23 was peaking in the 130-140s and C22 was nearing 200! How big will this cycle be? Most forecasts are for a similar peak to Cycle 24, there are a couple including NASA predicting a very low cycle, lower than last time, there is another predicting a high one, bigger than 23 and perhaps nearly as large as Cycle 21 and 22, but that is a bit of an outlier! I think that is unlikely at this stage. One method of forecasting maxima is taking the strength of the solar polar magnetic fields at minimum.. this was pretty accurate for the last four cycles, so for me, the prediction of a similar size to C24, perhaps slightly (maybe 5-10%) bigger is going to be closest to the mark. It's very early days for this cycle yet, but we do seem to be, in the short term, ramping up quicker than last time, and certainly more than I was expecting. This evening, WWV are reporting a solar flux of 100 as some fairly active regions rotate into view, and there are a couple more interesting looking regions about 3-4 days from rotating into view. *If* we are to exceed the last cycle by a considerable margin as per the outlier forecast mentioned above, we would probably need to see the solar flux routinely exceed 100 on peaks during the coming months up to , say, June.. time will tell whether the current ramp-up is a bit of an early freak (with activity dropping back (and sfu stuck in the 70s / a reasonable no. of spotless days for an extended period), or a real sign of some early precociousness from the new Cycle... We shall see!

Personally think that sunspot activity has no discernable effect on our weather at all. Winters 1978/9 and 1981/2 occurred near to or during solar max, as did 1990/91. Granted, 1985/6 and 1986/7 were close to solar minimum, but where were the severe winters of 1975/6 and 1976/7? I can point at both good and bad summers at both solar min and solar max down the years, so I really don't buy it. Solar flux now into the 90s for the first time since October 2017. We will still get some days when we drop to the low 70s and spotless in the coming months, but these days will get less and less as we move into 2021. I have seen some suggestions that this cycle could be a big one. Great from my POV if this were to come about, but I have seen nothing at this stage to suggest this cycle will be much different in magnitude to Cycle 24.

I, and many other radio amateurs are hoping that it does!! But it will be a slow process as this cycle will likely be similar in strength to the last one.

A second group has emerged quickly, to the extent that it is capable of producing M class flaring. That 87.6 the highest since September 2017. We briefly had readings of just over 130 the month before that. I don't know where that 55,000 comes from. Highest reading I am aware of is just over 400 in April 1947, though we don't have records going back beyond then. More recently, high 300s recorded briefly during the peaks of Cycle 21 and 22. As for flux readings during Maunder/Dalton minima, I would hazard a guess at a simple continuation of the lowest flux readings at solar minima... i.e. mid 60s.

Pushed the solar flux up to to 81.4 last night, highest of the new cycle so far, and highest since March 2019 (that activity came from spots from the old cycle). Still a good few spotless days to come over the next few months as the new cycle takes time to spin up.

I had one air frost that winter before the end of December. -0.1c. 2002 as a whole had -5 in the early hours of Jan 1, then two more that winter -0.2c, -0.1c, then the one in December.

Last time I looked, the amusements were all closed anyway.

Minned out at 18.8c here. Rapid rise to 30.2c in a light NEly about 20 minutes ago then the sea breeze mercifully kicked in. Dew point 21c. Temps now falling again, probably to around 25c in the next hour if the sea breeze remains. Fairly likely 30.2c will be the max today in that case. Fairly standard temp curve here for a warm sunny summers day.