Uncle_Barty

I think you're right - recent summers and especially 2007 has perhaps coloured some people's juidgement somewhat. I wasn't following model output very closely in 2003 and this wasnt available to us in the 90s, so I wonder what was being shown then. Personally I have a feeling of dread when strong heights over Greenland magically appear in early June, because in recent years upper air patterns have been slow to shift. I certainly don't think (on the basis of what GP said the other day) that we are in for a rerun of 2007. That was exceptional - apart from the rainfall, I failed to exceed 23c for a 4 month period straddling the summer solstice. But until the upper air pattern shifts, I will always worry about it sticking for many weeks writing off the major part of summer. Expressing fears about such a pattern sticking isnt the same as 'writing off summer'. Having said all that, yes the MO looks awful at the moment as it did for a major proportion of May, but this time next weerk it could all look very different. We have all seen it before - the 'feel' of MO can change significantly in quite a short period of time.

Not liking the look of the output at the moment - looking increasingly unsettled as next week progresses as the enemy of decent summers in the UK - the Greenland Block - starts to look increasingly limpet-like. A little way off, so time for things to change on that score, but a darkening feeling of deja-vu here.....

Indeed - 89 had a cold unsettled April, and the first 2 weeks of June (the only time I had off during that long hot summer!) following a hot Whitsun was also cold and unsettled. I thini that the June of 1976 also had an indifferent start after some hot May weather. OK, so it is looking cooler and more unsettled later this week onwards, but the past couple/3 weeks has shown how a fine spell can evolve when the models are not looking favourable even a week beforehand. It is a bit concerning that we could end up with a Greenland block which is usually a bad sign if you want it settled and warm, but there is time for that to change..

28.3 the max here today. Hottest day since July 2006, and the hottest May day in my records going back to 1996. I also understand that the May temp record has fallen at Bournemouth airport, 27.7 today beating the 27.6 reached in 1989. That latter figure surprises me as I would have thought 28c would have been reached in May in the past at some point, though their records only go back to 1957.

Thanks John - I find your analyses most useful.

Methinks PE may well be related to Younger Dryas in the other place. Both seem to ramp up cool/cold weather in the summer half of the year almost to the point of wumming. Model-wise... yes looking better but I am not yet convinced there will be that much of an improvement yet. The concern I have is that it is HP building in from the north. Wouldnt take much of a retrogression to bring that pesky upper trough back over or just to the east of us.

Yes, just UK related. I guess a good statistician might be able to look and see if there is any relationship between smoothed or monthly sunspot numbers and CET stats.

From I thought I'd copy the post I made on the subject in response to a question from John Holmes in the Tech Model discussion thread, for further discussion here (if any!) OK John. I'll put this here, but will also repost in a new thread in Historical sub forum for any further discussion rather then clog up this one. I expect Kevin Bradshaw could probably make a much better analysis than I, but here goes. This is a bit of a 'sketch' rather then scientific analysis, so feel free to pull it to bits as you wish. My main point is that I don't think one can point at solar activity as a major (perhaps not even a minor) factor in weather patterns affecting the weather here in the UK, though I'll happily accept that long term changes such as the Maunder Minimum may well do. Looking at the extreme ends of the solar cycles over the past 35 years, i.e.the periods around solar maxima and minima, and the general feel from my perception of the winter and summer seasons. My location is on the south coast. Solar minimum 1975-77 Winter 1974/5 mild Summer 75 cold start but a good one in the end. Winter 75/6 average to mild down here at least Summer 76 'nuff sed! Winter 76/7 average, think we might have had one snowy period here. (transition from solar min to much higher activity - rise usually much quicker than the fall) Solar maximum 1978-82 Summer 78 - poor even down here. Winter 78/9 we know all about that one! summer 79 (after some cold weather in May) and winter 79/80 both fairly average summer 80 was a stinker Winter 80/81 was average with no snow here summer 81 poor first half, better second. Winter 1981/2 legendary Dec/first half of Jan, the rest average Summer 82 average though June was wet in many parts Solar Minimum late 84 >> early 87 Winter 1984/5 was relatively cold Summer 85 was crap in the main Winter 85/6 average apart from a very cold February Summer 86 rather below average overall Winter 86/7 probably average bar THAT spell in January (then a rapid rise in solar activity ) Solar maximum mid-88 to 1992 Summer 1988 - stinker with a particularly horrid July winter 88/9 - very mild and Bartlett dominated summer 89 was predominently fine and warm winter 89/90 average at least with no snow down here. summer 90 - June not great but the rest was pretty good. winter 90/1 average until that cold Feb summer 91 poor first half much better 2nd winter 91/2 Average, don't remember any snow down here. Summer 92 distintly average Solar minimum 95-7 Winter 94/5 average at least, perhaps on the mild side Summer 95 iffy June but warm and sunny after that. winter 95/6 mixed with some distinctly cold spells. Summer 96 pretty average winter 96/7 average with notable cold spell at turn of year and another cold spell in Feb summer 97 awful June, rest was mixed. The solar maximum of 1999-2003 The winters were all fairly mixed. Summers of 99 and 03 were decent, the others distinctly average. Can anyone spot a pattern??? I can't!

OK John. I'll put this here, but will also repost in a new thread in Historical sub forum ( http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/73184-solar-maximumminimum-and-wintersummer-weather/ ) for any further discussion rather then clog up this one. I expect Kevin Bradshaw could probably make a much better analysis than I, but here goes. This is a bit of a 'sketch' rather then scientific analysis, so feel free to pull it to bits as you wish. My main point is that I don't think one can point at solar activity as a major (perhaps not even a minor) factor in weather patterns affecting the weather here in the UK, though I'll happily accept that long term changes such as the Maunder Minimum may well do. Looking at the extreme ends of the solar cycles over the past 35 years, i.e.the periods around solar maxima and minima, and the general feel from my perception of the winter and summer seasons. My location is on the south coast. Solar minimum 1975-77 Winter 1974/5 mild Summer 75 cold start but a good one in the end. Winter 75/6 average to mild down here at least Summer 76 'nuff sed! Winter 76/7 average, think we might have had one snowy period here. (transition from solar min to much higher activity - rise usually much quicker than the fall) Solar maximum 1978-82 Summer 78 - poor even down here. Winter 78/9 we know all about that one! summer 79 (after some cold weather in May) and winter 79/80 both fairly average summer 80 was a stinker Winter 80/81 was average with no snow here summer 81 poor first half, better second. Winter 1981/2 legendary Dec/first half of Jan, the rest average Summer 82 average though June was wet in many parts Solar Minimum late 84 >> early 87 Winter 1984/5 was relatively cold Summer 85 was crap in the main Winter 85/6 average apart from a very cold February Summer 86 rather below average overall Winter 86/7 probably average bar THAT spell in January (then a rapid rise in solar activity ) Solar maximum mid-88 to 1992 Summer 1988 - stinker with a particularly horrid July winter 88/9 - very mild and Bartlett dominated summer 89 was predominently fine and warm winter 89/90 average at least with no snow down here. summer 90 - June not great but the rest was pretty good. winter 90/1 average until that cold Feb summer 91 poor first half much better 2nd winter 91/2 Average, don't remember any snow down here. Summer 92 distintly average Solar minimum 95-7 Winter 94/5 average at least, perhaps on the mild side Summer 95 iffy June but warm and sunny after that. winter 95/6 mixed with some distinctly cold spells. Summer 96 pretty average winter 96/7 average with notable cold spell at turn of year and another cold spell in Feb summer 97 awful June, rest was mixed. The solar maximum of 1999-2003 The winters were all fairly mixed. Summers of 99 and 03 were decent, the others distinctly average. Can anyone spot a pattern??? I can't!

Solar activity is not that low at the moment. Granted it's not at the heights that it was at the last three solar maxima, but current average sunspot numbers are many times higher than they were at solar minimum (2006-10), when it was zero for days on end at times. The summers of 1975 and 1976 came during the solar minimum between cycles 20 and 21, and 1995 also occurred during a solar mimimum. Solar activity now is much higher than any of those occasions I have mentioned. 1980 was a stinker of a summer - solar maximum. I could go on.... IMHO talk of "low solar activity" is a red herring.

I recorded 975.9mb during last week's low, which is the lowest I have recorded in my records going back to 1996 for the summer half of the year (equinox-equinox). I think that may be "bettered" tomorrow.

I always say that you can't tell what the weather will be doing several weeks hence, but on the other hand I know where SP1986 is coming from on this occasion... Watching the models in recent days has brought that sinking feeling of deja vu from recent summers, with blocking out west stretching towards Greenland and a persisent upper trough over or just to the east of the UK. It is also true that recent patterns have stuck around for 3-4+ months at a time, notably the pattern that lasted from last September through the autumn. If the pattern we have seen recently establish remains for a similar period then it will write off the bulk of summer as we sit here and watch more eastern parts of Europe bake while we see the "cancelled" banners appear across the posters of planned outdoor events again and again up and down the country. GFS hinting at HP forming to the N of the UK by days 9-10 but I would have low confidence in thast at the moment.

One thing of interest to note - Barometer dipped to 975.9mb here today - the lowest reading in the summer half of the year (equinox to equinox) I have recorded in my records going back to 1996

ok, thanks. Thought it might be but wasn't sure as it appeared to be in the list of radar-only subscribers' links.

Hi all, In the Radar Links (I have a radar subscription) I am clicking the link below but unable to access that page as my sub apparently doesnt cover it. Is this an error, or does access require a full Extra sub? http://www.netweather.tv/secure/cgi-bin/premium.pl?action=rainfall;sess=1d357d4e6f34f7fc70eb0c4d490e3216

Just had a look at the models for the first time in a few days. Oh dear oh dear oh dear.... strong negatively-tilted jet aiming straight to South UK. Off to a family wedding at the end of the month in Perthshire - looks like it could go the same way as mine did in July 08, low pressure, rain and lots of wind to boot.... Mind you, I'd trade a cold and wet April/early May for a warm dry summer for once this year....

The spell didn't exceed 80f (26.7c) here at all.. indeed 2009 in total didn't. Since 2006 there has been a lack of very warm days here - just 5 days in the last 5 summers have produced 80f or more. My wife and I have had 3 July holidays in the UK in that time (Cornwall, Lakes and Guernsey) with a top temperature of just 17c across all three. 17c! Days over 80f here: 2006 - 9 (all in July) 2007 - NIL 2008 - 1 2009 - NIL 2010 - 3 2011 - 1

I remember this well! We had a similar experience in Bournemouth earlier that day... came over so dark that tthe street lights came on and the small kids playing in my street were wondering why they would have to go to bed in a minute even though they,d had no lunch and dinner! I'd seen the radar and could hear the sferics on the radio so knew that something big was coming. Nearly an inch of rain fell in half an hour. Local article: www.bournemouthecho.co.uk/news/846700.Summer_blackout/

Now that the dust is settling at the end of official winter (DJF), have to say I am quite happy with the one we just had. Not as good as 1988/9 perhaps (had to endure late Jan and early Feb) but I'd have taken it on 1st Dec. Not too much disruption to sporting fixtures and my fuel use is quite a bit down on last winter. Thankfully no weather related transport problems here apart from the fog this morning for my 40 mile commute to work. OK, the colder spell apart, rather boring from a weather interest point of view but for me winter is a season to be endured to get to spring as quickly as possible!

I'm sure it will by late May and we'll be back to a Greeny high again just when we don't want it, just in time to wreck another summer!

Looks like it will be rain here again despite the earlier mesoscale model output looking favourable for snow.. Cloudy and 2c, temp rising slowly.

I'm not going up but some are.. I was asked on the AFCB message board if we were likely to be called off. We'll lose up there, we got a poor record at Hartlepool in recent years!

My team have Hartlepool away on Sat. Anyone tell me what conditions are like up there... snow cover? Frozen ground? Ta

Agreed - the models did pretty well with this event. Got the rain for here spot on - apart from anything else, we had 10cm of snow last winter which was probably 10 years worth for this location, and as it is not 2020 yet, I knew we would get only rain here!

It's showing the lightest rain/snowfall detectable and I believe due to the low dewpoints in advance of the band of precip, it is evaporating before reaching the ground.