Uncle_Barty
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Posts posted by Uncle_Barty
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23 hours ago, karyo said:
We have a third sunspot emerging!
Yes 3 spot groups now, all higher latitude = Cycle 25.
There is now little doubt that solar minimum has passed, and in time will be formally recognised as having been in December 2019. Need a few more months data to be 100% sure, but I would be extremely surprised now if this was not the case.
Early cycle progress will almost certainly be slow - the likely size of the cycle will probably be about the same (or maybe slightly larger) then the last one.
We will still have some very quiet periods this year and into next, and the spotless days count will continue to rise, albeit probably not as quickly as in the last 2 years or so.
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9 minutes ago, Daniel said:
Ecm has 22c Thursday 28c Friday 27c Saturday 27c Sunday 27c Monday for Bournemouth Airport that's not bad tbf.
Likely to be 19/22/22/22/22 here in town unless a ENE'ly prevails and stops a sea breeze developing. The airport is a few miles inland over sandy soils.
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8 minutes ago, Paceyboy said:A collapse of potential, typified by the spoiler from GFS shows again that it is top model.
You can have your ECM/UKMO combo all you like but when GFS spots the crucial changes it shows its pedigree.
Outside of the south east it is back to average for Saturday although potentially very warm again first half of next week.
Weve gone from a high pressure 1020 - 1025mb in the perfect position and orientation just to the east and modelling a week of high 20s low 30s in much of central and south uk to blink and you miss it, again. The rest of August will be trash just like models are after 144 hours.
NONE of the models have verified yet for the weekend coming. NONE.
No point in "calling" one of the models being "right" and "top".
Saturday is 4 days away yet. Still time for things to change.
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6 minutes ago, Interitus said:
Ton up!!
37.8c is exactly 100F.
To think that before 2003, that was a temperature not recorded before in the UK.
Now the third hottest day recorded, with onmly 10 August 2003 and "Furnace Thursday" last year ahead of it.
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Peaked at 25.9 here an hour or so ago, but the steady ESE wind keeping a lid on temps here.
Meanwhile Heathrow and Northolt both reporting 35c/95f. Think the record is just out of reach, can't think we'll add more than 2 degrees or so. Just imagine if we had this air in place for 3-4 days instead of being brushed aside after a day as so often happens.
Have to feel sorry for Jersey. temps there rapidly rose to 25c or so by 8am. Now sat in fog and 18c!
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On 27/06/2020 at 13:54, summer blizzard said:
On a 12 month basis it looks like June 2020 may be declared solar minimum.
Almost correct. see my previous post above.
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Article here suggesting that solar minimum was reached last November.
(PDF) Solar Cycle 25 Started on November 17, 2019 with 365 Days Smoothing
WWW.RESEARCHGATE.NETPDF | In our previous article we found a relationship between the adjusted solar flux and the start of sunspot cycles. We used the 13 month smoothed... | Find, read...While it is probably too early to state this categorically for sure, the slow but steady increase in the appearance of Cycle 25 spot groups, and some low sunspot numbers/solar flux readings from a year ago dropping from the reckoning, I think the article will end up being pretty close to the mark.
There are also a couple of interesting graphs on solen.info by Jan Alvestad detailing the running 365-day smoothed means of both sunspot numbers and daily solar flux readings. These figures are always centred on 6 months ago, so today's rolling solar flux average over the past year is stated as being for (and centred on) early January. The graph focussing on the 24/25 transition is here
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2 hours ago, 38.7°C said:
Looks like a pretty dire Autumn like period coming up to start off the highest and what is supposed to be the warmest summer month.. Not seen unsettled weather like this in July since 2012.... Signs of improvement around mid month but that's all tucked away in the golden reaches of cuckoo kingdom. Its not normally until the after the Solstice that the basic summer pattern begins to set in so this coming week should be a concern if your wishing for anything settled.
The first half of July 2012 was an utter car crash with more rain here than the average for June and July combined during those two weeks, a 90% sunshine deficit and very suppressed temperatures. The whole of July 1988 was a disaster too.
The 2nd half of July 2017 was pretty unsettled as well.
The start of this July is certainly going to be changeable, but almost certainly not on a par with 2012 or 1988, and better the further south you are. And the signs from the models are that it is too early to write off the summer beyond this time next week. I refer to the ECM clusters posted earlier on.
I remember 1997 which had a very unsettled spell end of June (Glastonbury was particularly wet that year) but things did start to settle down at the first week of July progressed.
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ECM clusters:
D7 split 53:47 in favour of trough centred 5W/56N versus 10W/61N
Going further out by a couple of days, about a quarter show Greeny heights building nicely (or not nicely if you want settled weather here!) and a SCUK trough. The other two clusters show heights to S or SW of UK, giving a N/S split.
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Matt Hugo on Twitter still bullish on AAM staying on the low side (as he has been all summer so far) pointing to atlantic ridge/UK trough setup going into July,.
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30 minutes ago, Tamara said:
The tropical signal rooted in the Indian Ocean will continue to promote easterly (negative) inertia across the Pacific with the standing wave relocated further upstream in the tropics - and this in turn re-configures (retrogresses) the amplified rossby wave response further downstream. In both summer 2018 and 2019, momentum actually fell during June and this is not uncommon as linked to the Indian monsoon season which typically begins around this time .
Thank you, Tamara.
The part I' ve highlighted.. is that at least a contributary factor behind what many refer to the "June return of the westerlies" that often blights part of early summer?
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On 27/04/2020 at 21:55, JeffC said:
Can we say we've not yet reached absolute minimum?
I had a thread running on the other place on the progress of Solar Cycle 24/25 but that thread has now been deleted by the look of things.
We will know for sure in six to twelve months. But I believe from current data that the minimum will have turned out to have been during the 4th quarter of last year.
Solar flux-wise, we had some very low readings for a period beginning about now this time last year. With solar flux levels just starting to edge up now in response to a slowly increasing number of sunspot groups, these low values will start to drop out of the reckoning, and unless there is a slump in SFI to a very low level in the next few weeks, the smoothed 12-month mean solar flux will have turned out to reach a minimum of 69.14 in mid-November last year. This annual value centred on December 7th is now up to 69.22.
As for sunspots, the statistical minimum looks likely to be December 2019. This could be brought forward to November 2019 if June's sunspot number reaches 11.. not completely out of the question as we are definitely seeing an increase in Cycle 25 groups. We shall see!
As I mentioned in the other place, there is a sizable school of thought that we are entering a Grand/Dalton/Maunder minimum period.
I think this is most unlikely, and the upcoming cycle will be similar in size to the last one (quite a weak maximum) or perhaps a little stronger. My basis for this is the strength of the sun's polar magnetic field at the time of solar minimum. There is a graph here: https://solen.info/solar/polarfields/polar.html
There is a clear correlation between the strength of the polar magnetic field at solar min and the size of the succeeding solar max.
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This may not be good news, however...:
Ben Noll
@BenNollWeather
Anomalous upper level convergence across the tropical Pacific suggests the atmosphere will continue to head in the direction of La Niña over the next month... An interesting pattern for when African easterly wave season begins
AIUI, a low AAM is not good news for good summer weather here (need to learn why!)
Will wait to see what Tamara and co come up with as they know far more than I about the teleconnections. Not really paying any attention to what the models say more than 4-5 days out, as IMHO it's just noise until the background signals become clearer.
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39 minutes ago, mb018538 said:
It sure is, via the Icelandic weather site!
kort > ec-ens > then choose appropriate date. Those charts are in the scenarios links at the bottom of each page. Available at around 1135am in the morning for the 00z.
Thank you kind sir.
Far more useful than the mean chart which is next to useless.
Tried to put it through Google Translate in the hope of making it easier to understand properly, though I think I have the gist of it.
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6 hours ago, mb018538 said:
Looks like the sinking low is the preferred option. Could drag in some warmer air around the low as some runs are now showing. Depends how far it can sink away from the UK as to what we’d get here.
Where does one get that chart? is it generally available?
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8 minutes ago, 38.7°C said:
All this talk of troughing appearing in the models, I hope this isnt going to turn into a 2012 style pattern when, after a nationwide taste of hot summer at the end of May, Scandi heights quickly retrogressed to Greenland
with the whole British Isles left stuck inside a big blob of green snot for 3 months!!....Fingers crossed the current runs are just outliers!!!Apart from that late May spell, 2012, (after an exceptionally warm late March spell), was unremittingly cool/cold and unsettled from about 9th April through to late July IIRC. Nothing like this year.
This could be more akin to 1989 when after a fine May, June had a cool unsettled spell first half (my only 2 weeks off during the whole summer) before things turned generally fine and very warm again.
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If it produces winds in excess of 100mph, it should be renamed Storm Dennis Lillee
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16 hours ago, DaveL said:
That is a very good point almost always missed by almost all of the media.
I have a Davis VP2 anemometer sited at 3 metres height in my back garden, as open as I can get it but we are in the middle of a large housing estate of mainly detached houses - not untypical of where most people in suburbia live. The record highest gust is 39 mph (in 6 years) and yesterday's max gusts were 30 mph (3 times) and today, 31 mph (less shelter in westerlies). My record mean wind speed is a mere 14 mph (yesterday)!
The Davis anemometers tend to under-read, from what I can gather. I had gusts up to 49mph during Ciara, highest ever was 54mph back in Oct 2002. My anemometer is above the roof of the house 10m up and completely in the clear.
One of these days I am going to get a transducer-based anemometer.
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Not looking forward to this storm at all. If there is one thing I hate, it's very strong winds. Hoping my radio antenna system will survive.....
They did survive the 2014 storm, but....
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In other words John.. changeable but not disastrous!
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Cos we all suspect the models will show green snot parked over the UK again in the morning.....
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15 minutes ago, danm said:
Those stating this summer is likely to be on par with 2007 and 2012 are clearly doing so based on a guess (or troll). Yes, the first week of June looks unsettled but anything beyond that is up for grabs.
Looks more akin to the start of the summer of 2011 - a lot of UK troughing in the first half of June. I was having soem external work done at home at that time, and I am having all my guttering, soffits and facias done next week!
What happens beyond then, who knows. The early part of June '07 was actually quite pleasant.
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In my view, there is nothing in the output to suggest much more than a brief cold snap in prospect.
There is no real sign of high lat blocking in the forseeable, and that is a problem for those hoping for a decent spell of proper winter weather.
That is not to say that things could look much more hopeful on that score seven days from now, however. Things can change quite quickly.
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Just out of interest.. what ones did you try?
Solar and Aurora Activity Chat
in Space, Science & nature
Posted
I should add to my last post that assuming we are past the minimum now, average solar activity will very likely continue at little above rock bottom for the next few months - for example, I think it will be into 2021 before we see daily solar flux levels climbing above the 70s for more than the odd day at a time.