Uncle_Barty
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Posts posted by Uncle_Barty
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Hello,
I am considering replacing my standard issue Davis anemometer (which connects to my Vantage Pro 2) with a compatible ultrasonic one, before it inevitably fails at some point.
I am looking at the LCJ Ultrasonic anemometer - https://www.weatherstations.co.uk/lcj-ultrasonic-anemometer.htm
I have not read any reviews yet from users, could really do with some sort of feedback before I consider taking the plunge.
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Thanks again, Tamara.
One thing - can anyone point me towards a quick-look glossary of the various acronyms used in the posts talikng about teconnections? For example, CCKW.. not a clue what it stands for or what it means?
Just a decode of the acronym and a brief outline of what it is will do me. I can then read further if I want.
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2 minutes ago, mushymanrob said:
as for record breaking heat/breaking records here..
there certainly is the potential , but for that we would have to get a decent southerly for a few days. unfortunately thats unlikely, so the real heat will largely remain locked up to our south.I wouldn't say it's unlikely.. ok the models are not currently showing it, but the teleconnections mentioned in Tamara's and others' threads have strongly suggested that such a scenareo could happen, with the suggested pattern being Sceuro high and Atlantic trough... and they've been pretty much spot on so far.
If that pattern asserts itself, then it's game on for some exceptional temps.
Who knows what could happen 10-12 days from now?
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I think the question for me is while the pattern is set (HP to east, LP in Atlantic), how much scope for adjustment east or west of the pattern is there?
If it backs west a little, then that will make a big difference to temps and bring much more of the country into the hot weather and increase the chances of some serious (35c+) heat.
What would have to happen with the indicators (angular momentum etc.) that @Tamara and others speak of to facilitate this?
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That run probably won't verify, but the general synoptic setup in the various models are showing some blowtorch possibilities. I would put it no stronger than that at the moment.
SM is not suggesting that it's nailed on, but it's not entirely without support in the ensembles.
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Thanks!
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@Weather-history - or anyone else for that matter,
Is there an online source of daily maxima and rainfall for anywhere, for the summer of 1976?
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1 hour ago, Singularity said:
The Azores High looks to have one last rally around Friday, with a ridge extending across the UK, but this then evolves into more of an independent anticyclone as the Azores High becomes suppressed as part of the switch toward a Nino atmospheric state.
It’s then that we look to how well ridging can hold on across our lands in the face of Atlantic lows attempting to approach from the W or SW. We can fare pretty well from this setup in the second half of July and well into August - something many recent long range models have been strongly hinting at.
This doesn’t necessarily translate to long spells of sunny weather like we’ve seen in May-June, though; those troughs are likely to get close enough from time to time to introduce some instability i.e downpour/thunderstorm potential. Maybe even a more organised spell of rain on one or two occasions.
On the other hand, the air movements will be more supportive of hot air imports from the near continent. So I’m seeing high potential for shorter (which could still be up to 5 or so days at a time) but more intense heatwaves compared to summer so far. Also more rainfall in between, which will please some.
Simiular to August 1997? That was wet and warm and IIRC came near the start of an El Nino event.
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4 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:
ECM det is very appealing this evening with much more emphasis on the azores high longer term- in the 0-72 hour timeframe its very warm for much of England and Wales.
Obviously the mean / clusters will reveal more , but no appetite for a durable trough on EC tonight.
Backing up Tamara's recent postings...
I have taken the recent model output beyond seven days, showing the troughing, with a warehouse of salt for that reason. In fact, I don't take any big pattern change seriously unless it is showing consistently, and getting closer with each run instead of staying 10 days out like a mirage.
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5 minutes ago, Snowy L said:
Just got flashbacks reading that. Remember our monster cold pool that was displaced by a flabby low with no jet stream directing it in March? We learned the hard way that does not mean anything.
It was displaced because the HLB quickly retrogressed west from Scandinavia, taking away the easterly flow.
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34 minutes ago, MKN said:Teleconnections aren't worth looking at. Keep your eyes on the operational outputs from the main players and look at trends and you won't go far wrong. As for long term it's pie in the sky no one can say what the weather is gonna be in 3/4 months and even then best guess is a continuation of a trend baring a significant weather event like an SSW in winter.
Au Contraire. I think Tamara has called the progress of this summer pretty well so far, both in explaining why she thinks will turn out the way they will, and also how things could go wrong. Her posts make fascinating reading.
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12 minutes ago, Alderc said:
Yes I would agree however the majority of times gfs has introduced the Atlantic it’s only been briefly.
another thing to watch is the huge thermal gradient that will exit the eastern seaboard of the US in the coming few day, could be enough to really fire the jet up
Yes, thats what concerns me. I think it was that scenario that kicked in the summer of 2015 from the start of July onwards. Continent hot and settled while we were under the influence of the jet caused by a large thermal gradient in the W Atlantic.
This might just be a blip similar to what we had a couple of weeks ago, we shall see!
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End of June/beginning of July change from settled to mobile not a good time for a pattern change as it often sets the tone for the rest of the summer. Await the next missive from Tamara to see what the teleconnections are saying.
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2012 went downhill from as early as the 9th April.
Even the best of summers have an unsettled spell at some point - 1976 had a somewhat unsettled mid-part of June, 1989 had a horrid spell in the 1st half of June (coinciding with the 2 weeks I had off being the only time I got...) and 2003 had a dodgy spell in late July.
Not too concerned at the moment, given Tamara's words in recent days, but the fact that it's an "8" year is always at the back of my mind
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8 hours ago, Quicksilver1989 said:
How can you make a forecast for the rest of the summer when its May 29th? lol
The 18z looks really good still and the showers become less widespread after Friday/Saturday whilst still remaining warm. Even the best summers can have a poor week of weather within them, this is the UK after all....
Indeed. June 1976 was unsettled for a time.
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Was it CFS showing a sharp breakdown at the start of June a short time ago?
I hope the anamoly charts are wrong, but...... year ending in 8......
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2 hours ago, divadee said:
It's shot up to a positively balmy 2.7 degrees here with a few point of 2.4. Nope. I did miss the minus symbol off.
Temps rose to 2-3c late last night and have been sat there since then. See graphs in the link to my station in my sig below.
Gradual thaw has now set in. Going shopping shortly, assuming Castlepoint is open.....
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13 minutes ago, Mapantz said:
Anyone see lightning just then? Sky lit up purple to my west.
power lines flashing over?
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Ice pellets here, no rain.
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29 minutes ago, Alderc said:
Temperature rising rapidly now! -3.0 to -1.0c in twenty minutes in the car.
temps holding steady here at -2.6 here in Springbourne.
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9 minutes ago, Alderc said:
Currently on Wessex way - gridlocked! Near blizzard conditions!
I work at Whiteley (M27 J9) and after seeing the radar mid-morning, I made my mind up to come home at lunchtime.
I am so glad I did, as the entire M27, A31 and A338 are at a standstill. According to TomTom I would have faced a 5 hour journey home had I left at my normal 4pm....
Snow now as heavy as it's been all day. Probably about 10cm now, though hard to tell as it's all blowing around. Temp been stuck at -3.1 for hours though starting to creep up a smidge now -2.9.
Wondering what awaits me when I wake up in the morning. Still snowing? Freezing rain? Perhaps slightly milder and a slight thaw? Who knows!
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3 minutes ago, divadee said:
I don't know where the downgrade rumour has come from, but my met office app has finally updated and its a small upgrade for central Bournemouth. Heavy snow symbols for 10pm tomorrow. And more snow on Friday showing.
Ignore the apps. I would not trust them too much.
going to be a case of watching the radar and keeping an eye on the temp and dewpoint.
Maxed at 0.7c here, but been below zero most of day. Dewpoint very low at -12c - see my site in my signature below.
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1 hour ago, awoodrow said:
I'll be doing Ringwood to Whitely at 7am tomorrow, will try not to slide into you
I tend to leave Bournemouth at 6am, will try not to spin and block the A31 for you!
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49 minutes ago, EllyTech said:
Hi Beka! The moisture is being sucked out of the snow rather than it melting.
Google "Sublimation".......
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Replacement ultrasonic anemometer for Davis VP2
in Weather stations and equipment
Posted
Thanks.
"Underneath" I assume you mean on the underside of the top surface.
Think I might hold back for now then.
I have seen images of ultrasonic anemometers that are four tubes facing each other with no top surface - I guess they are not likely to sufer this problem? None available "Davis compatible" so far as I can see though.