snowspotter
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Posts posted by snowspotter
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Having avoided netweather for 5 days thought I’d check the situation. Nothing really seems to have changed . Still way above average with a February closer to an average April . Sadly I think the interest in the weather forums will die off . Let’s face it really only picks up in winter when snow is a possibility. What’s the point in looking at a load of mild rubbish for 3 months in winter . Think global warming has killed off a once exciting chase . Even the met office are out of date with the accelerating global warming occuring . Why they forecast a cold second half of February is frankly beyond credibility. I for one could see it was cobblers . A bit like the 10 day charts are always showing promise . Anyway at least it should be a warm summer
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Hmmm I thought there was supposed to be a pattern change come mid February . This looks suspiciously like the same old mild sw airstream and high pressure over Spain and southern Europe that we’ve had now for about 3 weeks !
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Is it time to start looking forward to spring warmth now that the weather has gone back to default mild ? I usually look for snow but feel this year has pretty much become a bust now especially now global warming has heated up Europe so much . Personally can’t see any sign of a cold spell coming from current modelling. Not particularly bothered
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If this transpires we might need to start looking at the sea ice charts!
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Great upgrade that on the 0z with the high early on further north and east allowing more of an easterly early on which means colder start . Even a possibility of some early snow flurries in the SE later part of the weekend . Overall the picture looks the same to me . Early Sandi high - easterly . High intensifies over UK drifts a bit south then looks like the whole pattern wants to move high pressure to Greenland. Overall excellent IMHO
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Well considering I’m heading to Alps in a weeks time for a few weeks the models look great to me . It’s looking decent in UK well . The deep freeze here can wait until late January ! When I’m back
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Well according to Sky news headlines we’re heading for a SSW and repeat possibly of 2010
'Sudden stratospheric warming' forecast to hit northern Europe in January - but experts unsure where it will strike
NEWS.SKY.COM
There is a 'greater than normal' risk of snow in January, the Met Office has warned, though forecasters say it is too soon to tell if a so-called 'sudden stratospheric warming' will plunge...-
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3 hours ago, Kentspur said:
Best signal yet for a significant SSW on the GFS ensembles now the clusters growing past the 0 mark. Merry Christmas all!
Presume we’re looking at the average red dotted line ? If so believe it shows a warming (moderate) early January ? Am. Correct . The purple line obviously goes off on one but not until April so that’s no use
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So we’ve all decided the models aren’t worth looking at so who is refreshing the gfs 12z . I am one of you
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10 minutes ago, Metwatch said:
With reference to the Iberian / Azores high pressure becoming more persistent due to Hadley cell expansion from climate change etc etc, to me that sounds more concerning for Spain itself where drought conditions could even worsen for them? I suppose if you're a British expat who has lived in the UK for many years and have moved to Spain it would be nice to have a break from the dreary UK climate but for residents in Spain I think it's concerning.
If googled about the Hadley cell expansion expecting something dramatic but from what I found it’s only expanded between 0.1-0.5 degrees latitude in 40 years so it don’t really think that is going to make much difference on a global scale . Unless it’s harder to shift . I was expecting something more extreme
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I keep looking at the charts and it all looks pretty boring doesn’t it ? Gloomy , drizzly , no sun . Oh what fun . I have seen nothing in the model discussion thread to suggest anything of cold interest before the new year. I glance occasionally but you know the score after about two minutes of reading the comments . Be nice to actually get a frost
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Been lightly snowing here in Reigate for the last hour . Nice to see so early in season
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4 minutes ago, TSNWK said:
Is this same model along others that struggle with a pattern change 1 week out?
Exactly what I was thinking
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2 minutes ago, Porto said:
UKMO high res again still more or less on the same track, Im worried by the small spots of up to 70mph winds that keep getting surprisingly far inland in the SE, I dunno if I should interpret it as potential short bursts of strong winds or just general model "noise". With only a yellow warning inland, that might catch people off guard if it does occur. I do expect some red warnings to occur across the SW and coasts of the S and SE potentially soon though from the Met based off of these charts.
That can’t be correct it shows the Isle of Wight having less wind then inland !!
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9 minutes ago, IanT said:
Correct.
I don’t think it’s going to deviate much at all from the latest met office forecast to be honest . Check out the video on their website for the latest track of it .
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All the talk of 1987. Just thought I’d post a few photos of inland Surrey . Lingfield to be precise where I grew up . Remember the howling winds and total apocalyptic scenes the next day . All roads out were blocked by debris . I innocently cycled down the road to see what the damage was and got tangled up in some downed telephone cables . Thank gos they were not electricity ! Hopefully this storm won’t be anything like it
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Doesn’t look like much of note if you believe the met office generated forecast for inland south east areas. Here in Reigate it’s saying maximum gusts 42mph on Thursday, hardly a repeat of the legendary 1987 storm . Accept maybe some coastal areas will see more
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8 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:
The same GFS that gave huge areas 20-30cm last run, so which one of those runs is hyperbolic nonsense?
Both to be honest no offence caused
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Bearing in mind we are currently at +2:85c above February average I find it strange that people on the model thread are expecting some miracle from the SSW. Everytime I look on there there seems to be more and more data posted from different sources (dare I say overkill) yet the same end result is something may happen in 16 days time . And this gets shunted down the line . I think people need to get realistic on this winter . It’s done . People should be looking for spring now . We had a decent cold spell December and that was it . The met office outlook doesn’t even suggest anything other than ‘colder than average ‘ for march . Not bitterly cold . I really don’t get the hyperbole on the model thread . It’s never been the same since the top posters have left or been banned . I just glance at it now as quite frankly a lot of fragile egos on there as soon as you comment something they don’t agree with . I guess that’s social media and keyboard warriors for you
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8 minutes ago, Met4Cast said:
I think it's best to summarise the broad picture going forward as there's a lot of different things (understandably) being put forward at the moment, some rather complicated things are going on in the atmosphere and sometimes it's better to go back to basics to get a clearer picture of the expected evolution.
High pressure most likely to build out in the Atlantic, GEFS/EPS in agreement.
Winds broadly turning N/NWerly next week & during the final week of the month, temperatures falling back to average/perhaps slightly below in the north
Will ridging eventually move north into Greenland? Limited signal for this at the moment, the Canadian vortex could over power any attempts unless we see low heights draining from Canada, will the SSW help us out with that? As such, "deep" cold remains a lower probability until this is resolved.
SSW impacts remain largely unknown re: downwelling, timing & subsequent impacts on the broad-scale tropospheric pattern.
A BFTE is looking unlikely. Any cold weather seems most likely to come from the north, rather than the east. Albeit I see potential for Scandi heights as we go further into March, the likelihood of deep cold lessening the further we go into the month.
Like the way you’ve tried to be logical about this but I don’t think at this stage you can rule out winds from the east when the SSW has not really happened yet . We have no idea how it’s going to affect things in next 2 weeks
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I really enjoyed winter . Now we’ve moved into spring I guess it’s when the first 20c is forecast can’t be long now can it ?
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24 minutes ago, carinthian said:
Where are you ski-ing in Austria ?
C
Ski Welt area so quite low altitude. But plenty of time I guess for things to pick up mid January onwards hopefully !
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The way the models are looking at present this ski season in Europe is looking awful. I'm off to Andorra in under two weeks and then to Austria late January . I've kind of written off Andorra as going to be thin cover and icy . Regarding Austria I'm beginning to get concerned about here now. That sodding High Pressure system over Southern Europe just won't budge and is just spreading warm air and melt across the Alps with literally no sign of snow to a decent low level forecast. Kind of despair setting in here
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Isn’t the high pressure set up exactly what happened last January ? I seem to remember a huge warm high pressure system over southern Europe.
Moans, ramps and banter
in Spring Weather Discussion
Posted · Edited by snowspotter
Azazel the end of the world possibly with global warming ?