snowspotter
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Posts posted by snowspotter
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2 minutes ago, kold weather said:
What an interesting comment at the end.
It broke a *record* of course it will be remembered. Probably long past the burns day storm for that reason alone.
Let alone it being a daytime red alert, lots of travel disruption, several major structures damaged, etc. The pictures of the 02 arena being ripped apart will be around in 30 years I bet any money..
I’d like to check but I probably won’t be about in 30 years . Maybe the speed record will be remembered
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1 hour ago, North-Easterly Blast said:
Winter 2021-22 has plainly been one of the all time classics of the warm September = mild winter theory. If I was to ever make a forecast, I will say that there will not this century, or ever again, be a cold winter in the UK following on from a high September CET, despite how good some other background signals may be.
It appears if you have just got one thing wrong; a strong ocean anomaly either way (ENSO or IOD), or being close to or just after solar maximum, a high CET in the preceding September, or in most cases a westerly QBO, the odds are well and truly stacked against any decent cold patterns developing during the winter in the UK.
The signals for a colder winter looked good IMO up until the end of last summer, with a number of people thinking that a colder winter in 2020-21 than in most recent years, and the first really cold April for 32 or 35 years, could be a teaser for something greater this winter, and all this combined with the position of the solar cycle looked more promising for this winter, but then all those promising signals evaporated when along came September 2021, which turned out to have the seventh warmest September CET on record, and going by the way that the UK's weather patterns have developed in previous years especially in recent times, it is clear that a high September CET does not bode well for cold conditions in the following winter, so basically winter 2021-22 is a winter that looked promising six months or more before it but was ruined by the warm September which most likely nailed the coffin for anything colder this winter.
Agreed . Some good points here . I think we can safely put a nail on the coffin of winter 2021/2022 . The model discussion thread for winter seems to have died a complete death
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Just now, Nick L said:
How damaging did it need to be to be justified? I'm curious.
I’ve already closed having a pointless argument buddy . The curious case of Benjamin button ( is it a major storm ) is done have a great evening on here debating it
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10 minutes ago, Steel City Skies said:
How many would need to lose their lives before the hyperbole was justified, in your opinion?
The reality is there is a swathe of significant damage (not just fence panels, I might add) across the country and three lives lost.
Blimey I’ve created some angst here lol. Hyperbole is hyperbole it’s not measured in deaths and I told you so comments . I’m just going by the damage in comparison with what people were going on about . You won’t be talking about this storm in 30 years will ya ??? End of
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27 minutes ago, HammerJack said:
I’m sure the families of people who died today might have a different take on todays storm!!
Maybe people did listen to the MO warnings and the “Hyperbole” on here and stayed home if they possibly could. Im sure this has averted more injuries or death.
Absolutely. But it wasn’t the storm it was built up to be on here was it? That’s my point
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9 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:
It's a weather forum, maybe this site isn't for you.
Oh no I love a good weather forum been on here since 2003 . Just saying it’s been hyperboled too much . Let’s be frank some people actually believe stuff on here and panic at every opportunity. I’m just posting reality
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1 minute ago, Nick L said:
Nobody has ever said it was going to be comparable to 1987.
Don’t think I did either but there’s 144 pages of drama on here
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My take on this is ….a storm yes but not really that intense (thank goodness) a few trees down here . Fence panels down ( like they always are - should invest in concrete posts !) . Is it worth all the hyperbole ??? No ….. reading on here in the build up you’d think a hurricane was coming . A flaw of the forums acting like the daily express . Basically whipping things up . Compared to 1987 (and 1990 January) a walk in the park . Incidentally just done one . 1987 I couldn’t get out of my village in Surrey , went for a cycle and got caught up in telephone cables . This doesn’t even come close !
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I don’t think there is going to be a sting jet on this system . Met guy on radio 5 just said so
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15 million trees came down in uk in 1987 as they were still in leaf . Not saying there will not be damage but a comparison is not really realistic
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Blimey there is a lot of hyberbole on here about this storm . There is absolutely zero chance of anything even remotely like the 1987 storm down here . I think people are getting a bit ahead of themselves like when blizzards are predicted and paralysing snow and we end up with1cm .
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3 hours ago, LetItSnow! said:
I think we’ve heard the warm September theory about 7 million times now. As much as it’s an interesting quirk in the data I think the point is well established by now. I certainly wouldn’t be basing a winter forecast off of it necessarily.
I haven’t gone through the entire data set ! But believe some have and can anyone show me one winter where a warm September is followed by a cold winter ? I could be wrong but I think , for example , Gavs weather vids (and believe me he leaves no stone unturned !) picked up on the comparisons of warm September = mild winter . So I think it’s more than a statistical quirk .
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How’s the hunt for cold thread going ? I think naming it that has put a complete jinx on things . We’ve had one morning on 3/12 with a dusting of snow . That’s it ! Nothing at all since . I think this is safely going down as a disaster of a winter . And now to cap it all when the PV should be relaxing it’s gone all autumnal . I think climate change has well and truly screwed us . Looks like the Feb CET is similar to an average April . Do we actually have winter anymore ?
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Just checked my weather station stats. Since the ridiculous warm start at end of December early January we have had a some cracking frosty starts and some cool day with sunshine after the December gloom. I am quite enjoying it to be honest
to put things into perspective here are the number of days I've recorded with minimums below 0c ( have missed out 2021 ,2016, 2021 as lost some data)
So far this month 11 days which compares really well already since 2010 with totals as follows :-
2010 -19
2011 - 7
2012 - 11
2013 - 15
2014 - 4
2015 - 11
2017 - 16
2018 - 2
2019 - 15
2020 - 4
I'm confident we might end up with a record beating 2010 so best January for frosts since at least 2010!!
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Any reason the 18Z is not updating on Netweather when it is on Meteociel? . Whats the point in paying for 'extra' if it doesn't update.
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42 minutes ago, Staffmoorlands said:
Very good agreement out to 10 days now on all the models which is often the case when we have a west to east pattern.
In summary, a brief cold spell with some wintry weather this week before milder weather edges in for the weekend and in to next week. It is also currently looking mainly dry although it could be drizzly with the mild feed from the Atlantic.
Shall I come back in 10 days then for the 'hunt for (yeti) cold'
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4 minutes ago, jvenge said:
You aren't supposed to look at it on a per run basis in isolation. Rather you look at the averages it picks out, particularly for height anomalies, over say a 7 day period and then you see how this changes either based on weighing more the more recent runs or weighing more the oldest runs. If you want to take a single run from a single day and then expect it to verify then yes, you are going to be disappointed.
Ok . I’ll look at it this way . I thought it was an average anyway bearing in mind it’s predicting averages for the whole month of say February.
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17 minutes ago, jvenge said:
Yeah, well, opinions n all, but it isn't a load of rubbish to those who know what to take from it.
I’d like to be convinced if there is anything to be taken from it when it fluctuates so much . Maybe I’m not an expert
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2 hours ago, jvenge said:
Not sure I get this CFS hate. The CFS is meant to be used for looking at seasonal or sub seasonal trends, not as a weather forecast.
Yeah it’s supposed to ! But it changes weekly from one extreme to the other so like the poster above intimates it’s a load of rubbish
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Sadly I am beginning to think this winter , that seemed to promise so much may be heading down the crap route . Every January we seem to end up here hoping for a late January feb cold spell. I watched Gavs winter forecast again yesterday and he did say mid January to mid February the best chance for cold BUT also said a chance this could be overidden . If we don’t see anything in the charts long term in next 10 days I think it’s time to call it a bust as that would take us to mid to late January
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Haven't we seen something like this 282hrs chart somewhere before!
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Blimey never thought I'd see the day when New Years Eve on the GFS showed a maximum temperature in London of 15c . Let that sink in bit . 15c in the day in the heart of winter. I'm really quite concerned what is happening with our climate. Thats just ridiculous. And to think the same model was showing an ice day 36 hours back. I think that sums things up.
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SpoilerSpoiler
Honestly I haven't seen charts like these before they just look totally different to anything I've seen in last 15 years absolutely bizarre pressure systems
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4 minutes ago, Optimus Prime said:
Looks briefly quite chilly with some wintry hazards on the hills and a little frost before the atlantic barrels through giving us a wet and windy start to the new year.
Certainly no country locking, road clogging, village paralysing weather we were led to believe a few days ago. So if the weather won't lock us down I guess Doris and his circus friends will have to.
Are you prepared to put money on this forecast ! I’m not too confident on the altlantic barrelling in for a mild new year GFS seems to suggest a snowstorm and easterlies Unless I am going completely mad
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Winter 2021-22 Chat, Moans and ramps thread
in Spring Weather Discussion
Posted
I did post a while back for someone to show the number of cold winters following a warm September and there was radio silence . So unless someone can prove otherwise maybe it’s a bit harsh just to say total BS to this persons comment .Now if you show me a number of cold winters following a warm September then fair play I will accept it . But not seen anything yet ! I haven’t the time to go back on 100 years data myself