Lenticular

Pressure = 1002 Temp = 9c Wind = None to speak of but upper WNW drift on clouds Weather = Scattered Cu with some heavy Showers, Sunny & clear otherwise.

Pressure = 998mb Temp = 4C Wind = NNW 10-20mph in the Showers Weather = has been bright and sunny with infrequent but heavy snow showers. Becoming more persistent and prolonged as the day goes by.

Well first post and login Since Oct 1st according to the site when i signed in Pressure = 993 rising slowly Temp = 2C Wind = 20-35mph NNW Dry at present after some earlier hail showers. The wind has slowly been picking up after backing right off this-afternoon

Hi Paul in response to the latest news letter = while i love the site to bits there is one thing that stops me using the GFS and other charts in the data centre, there are no ways to animate or step frame forward or backward, so instead you have to press the individual hour codes and doesn't give a nice flow to watch weather systems develop. but this is my only gripe. Cheers Rob

Pressure = 1025mb Temp = 18C Wind = SW 5mph Weather = Sunny day with 40-50% Cumulus cloud cover.

Pressure = 1025mb Temp = 12C Wind = N 5mph Weather = Clear and cold night, now bright fresh morning with just a few thin bits of stratus

Pressure = 1019mb Temp = 18C Wind = N 9mph Weather = Cloudy start but has cleared slowly over the day, now clear sky

Pressure = 1032mb Temp = 17C Wind = NNW but only about 2-3mph Weather = Clear sky with just a few low level developing Cumulus clouds

Pressure = 1032mb Temp = 21C lovely Wind = NNW 6mph Weather = started out with a clear blue sky but has become overcast with a dose of anti cyclonic gloom. low level stratus

From the sat image above and other sat pics IR and Vis Looks like the system has dropped south quite a bit and is about to pop out into the Pacific with quite a bit of the structure intact into and area where Henriette redeveloped in to a cat2 from a very week and decayed tropical low, so it will be interesting to see how much if any redevelopment there is, as this sat image shows Felix is already starting to draw from the South and west already. the track of this is now further south than all the models but does seam to be following the GDFL from about 3 days ago which showed it p[oping out into the Pacific then tracking the South American coast, will be interesting to see were it goes.

Looking at this i dont think that the fat lady has sung for this system just yet, lots of convection to the north and on the IR quite a bit of moisture being drawn from the Pacific as well, this could keep Felix going for a little while yet, but the track models are completely different from this-morning so where this is gong is a bit of a guess.

Pressure = 1030mb Temp = 10C Wind = Light & variable Weather = clear & star lit night, but bike thermometer showed only 8C,so quite a nip in the air. Thank god for heated grips

Pressure = 1028mb Temp = 17C Wind = N 7mph Weather = Early broken Strauts Clear and sunny all day, not a cloud in the sky now.

Pressure = 1024mb Temp = 8C Wind = N 5mph Weather = Very thin layer of cloud so no stars. just been out for a cig and there is a definite Autumnal feel to the air.

Latest Sat of Felix And the latest IR showing nice cold cloud top to the NW with the water vapour sat images showing plenty of moist air. both still showing an eye structure of sorts. Just read this, think that the system could make a slight right turn as to take its track a bit more WNW HURRICANE FELIX DISCUSSION NUMBER 14 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062007 500 PM EDT MON SEP 03 2007 AIRCRAFT DATA INDICATE THAT FELIX HAS WEAKENED TODAY. MAXIMUM SFMR WINDS WERE 118 KT SEVERAL HOURS AGO BUT THE AIRCRAFT DATA SHOWS THAT THE CENTRAL PRESSURE HAS COME UP A BIT SINCE THEN. THE AIRCRAFT REPORTS ALSO INDICATED THAT THE EYEWALL HAD OPENED UP TO THE WEST NORTHWEST. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ADJUSTED TO 115 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGES SHOW SOME RECENT COOLING OF THE CENTRAL CONVECTIVE CLOUD TOPS PARTICULARLY ON THE WEST SIDE...AND IN FACT THE MOST RECENT MESSAGES FROM THE HURRICANE HUNTERS SUGGEST THAT THE EYEWALL MAY HAVE CLOSED UP AGAIN. HIGH-DENSITY FLIGHT LEVEL DATA PLOTS GIVE A HINT OF A SECONDARY WIND MAXIMUM SUGGESTING THAT THE HURRICANE MAY BE GOING THROUGH AN EYEWALL REPLACEMENT...BUT THIS IS NOT EVIDENT FROM OTHER DATA SOURCES SUCH AS MICROWAVE IMAGERY. SINCE THE LARGE-SCALE ENVIRONMENT IS STILL CONDUCIVE...THE HURRICANE MAY RE-INTENSIFY PRIOR TO INTERACTING WITH LAND. THIS POSSIBILITY IS REFLECTED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. REGARDLESS...WE EXPECT FELIX TO REMAIN A MAJOR HURRICANE UP TO LANDFALL. THE INTENSITY FORECAST AT 24 HOURS AND BEYOND IS UNCERTAIN BECAUSE WE ARE UNSURE OF HOW LONG FELIX WILL REMAIN OVER LAND. SINCE THIS HURRICANE HAS A SMALL INNER CORE...THE LARGE MOUNTAINS OF HONDURAS COULD WEAKEN THE CYCLONE MORE RAPIDLY THAN INDICATED IN THE NHC FORECAST. THE HURRICANE CONTINUES TO MOVE WESTWARD AT A FAIRLY FAST PACE OF 17 KT. THE DOMINANT STEERING MECHANISM CONTINUES TO BE A WELL-DEFINED DEEP LAYER HIGH PRESSURE AREA TO THE NORTH OF FELIX. THIS REGIME IS FORECAST BY THE GLOBAL MODELS TO PERSIST FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH SOME WEAKENING. THEREFORE A WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION WITH SOME SLOWING OF THE FORWARD SPEED IS INDICATED. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS NOT MUCH DIFFERENT FROM THE PREVIOUS ONE ALBEIT IT HAS BEEN SHIFTED SLIGHTLY TO THE SOUTH. THIS IS IN CLOSE AGREEMENT WITH THE LATEST CONSENSUS OF THE GFDL...U.K. MET. OFFICE...NOGAPS...AND GFS DYNAMICAL MODELS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ISLA PROVIDENCIAS SINCE SOME OUTER RAIN BANDS ARE LIKELY TO PASS OVER THAT ISLAND TONIGHT. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 03/2100Z 14.3N 79.5W 115 KT 12HR VT 04/0600Z 14.5N 81.9W 120 KT 24HR VT 04/1800Z 14.9N 84.5W 90 KT...INLAND 36HR VT 05/0600Z 15.5N 86.6W 60 KT...INLAND 48HR VT 05/1800Z 16.2N 88.8W 65 KT...INLAND 72HR VT 06/1800Z 17.6N 92.5W 30 KT...INLAND 96HR VT 07/1800Z 19.0N 96.0W 30 KT...INLAND 120HR VT 08/1800Z 20.5N 99.5W 20 KT...INLAND...DISSIPATING

Latest Sat pic i could find. Looking at all the model runs apart from the GDFL they all take Felix in to an area (WNW) with SST's a good 1.5 to 2 deg warmer that its over at present, also will be less shaded by land to the south so this system has almost perfect conditions to increase in size and strenght dramaticaly, think the models have under estimated is max wind speeds by a good 25knot's.

Pressure = 1019mb Temp = 20C Wind = W 8mph Weather = Scattered Stratus with the occasional Cumulus building & then decaying and quite sunny.

Pressure = 1020mb Temp = 15C Wind = W 6mph Weather = Overcast and some resent spots of rain/drizzle?

Pressure = 1020mb Temp = 16C Wind = ENE 5mph Weather = High Stratus slowly breaking up. been dull and overcast all day but no precp

Pressure = 1027mb Temp = 16C Wind = NW 8mph Weather = Lovely Sunny Day with High Scattered Cloud 3 Day of Sunshine on a bank holiday, miracles do happen :0)

Pressure = 1016mb (up 2 from yesterday) Temp = 14C Wind = N 14mph (no change there) Weather = Thick Sratus & DRIZZLE yuck!!!!

Pressure = 1014mb Temp = 14C Wind = 20mph With Strong Gusts Weather = Another day of Stratus with rain showers.

Pressure = 1014mb Temp = 15C (is this really summer?????????) Wind = N 12mph Weather = Overcast with Stratus with occasional light rain/drizzle Has been like this all day Yuck!!!

One very large dark sky above and lightning less than 1 mile away. the wind has dropped and some very large blobs of rain are staring to fall its show time edit make that less than half a mile away just witnesses a large IC.

Pressure = 995mb Temp = 17c Wind = S 18mph Weather = Clear sky apart from some large cumulus to the NW and high stratus to the south. No storms today.