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Zenarcher

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  1. Zenarcher
    I'm using the Climate Simulator which I've used over the past 2 years and found it to be very accurate for predicting average temperatures for long range forecasts and also I will be using the CFS maps as well. I have compared all of my data to last years to make comparisons and fine tune my forecast.

    [b]December[/b]

    Climate Simulator - The dark blue line at the top show our average temperatures and the red line just underneath it shows our forecast temperature for December. It's saying as December progresses its more likely to gradually become colder than average.

    [attachment=230421:decsim.png]

    Rainfall - Most of England and Wales can expect a wetter than average month along with parts of Ireland and Scotland while the far North West of Scotland looks fairly average and may end up drier than average.

    [attachment=230420:DecRain.png]

    Temperature - The CFS predictions seem to match the Climate Simulator, with close to average temperatures for most of the UK. Temperatures across England and Wales do look like they will be slightly higher than average but only by a very small margin.

    [attachment=230422:DecTemp.png]

    [size=5][b]December Summary[/b][/size] - The first 3 weeks of December (1st to 21st) is expected to be mainly unsettled with average rainfall totals and at times some heavy rainfall for places in Wales and England. High pressure is expected to sit to our North East forcing low pressure systems to track further South than usual thanks to a Southerly tracking Jet Stream. When the low pressure systems are not about high pressure will mainly be strong over England and Wales giving some short settled periods along with mild temperatures.

    The last week of December (22nd to 31st) is expected to turn colder there seems to be a strong signal for this to occur I expect to see a blocking pattern occur around this point. The cold weather will bring snowfall mainly to the Northern half of the UK but high ground areas across all of the UK and Ireland could see snowfall. Strong Northerly winds with at times very low temperatures will affect the North West of the UK and all of Ireland. The rest of the UK that's further South can expect cold temperatures along with frosts and perhaps some short cold snaps producing wintry weather.

    [b]January[/b]

    Climate Simulator - It's going for temperatures to continue to stay on the cold side for the entire month.

    [attachment=230424:jansim.png]

    Rainfall - Mostly Wales, Southern parts of England and Ireland look to have just a small amount of rainfall more than average but mostly places look average for January.

    [attachment=230423:JanRain.png]

    Temperature - Again we see the Climate Simulator and CFS closely agreeing here. The CFS goes for average temperatures for all of the UK and Ireland.

    [attachment=230425:JanTemp.png]

    [size=5][b]January Summary[/b][/size] - The first half of January (1st to 18th) remains on the colder side with widespread frosts and some wintry weather affecting parts of the UK mainly in the North where winds will be strong at times as well. I expect the blocking pattern to weaken slightly here but still enough to give off some cold weather. The far South of Ireland and England will see some unsettled weather at times as low pressure systems pass nearby giving some wet and windy weather but average temperatures remain.

    The second half of January (19th to 31st) turns much colder for all parts of the UK and Ireland as the Atlantic begins to lose some power and the blocking pattern begins to get stronger again. Some settled periods can be expected with frosts and drier spells along with some wintry weather affecting any parts of the UK and Ireland could occur at some point but most likely at the very end of the month.

    [b]February[/b]

    Climate Simulator - It's saying February looks to be the coldest month out of winter.

    [attachment=230427:febsim.png]

    Rainfall - It is looking very dry for most of the month, especially across England and Wales.

    [attachment=230426:FebRain.png]

    Temperature - The CFS goes for average temperatures again here.

    [attachment=230428:FebTemp.png]

    [size=5][b]February Summary[/b][/size] - The first half of February (1st to 15th) continues to stay on the cold side of things with some wintry weather being widespread across much of the country as the blocking remains strong up to this point and we could see some short dry spells occur.

    The second half of February (16th to 28th) see's a change. The blocking pattern that's been mostly in control collapses as the Atlantic begins to take power again. England and Wales still enjoy settled weather though as high pressure remains over them giving off average temperatures and very dry weather. However for Ireland and Scotland while temperatures are close to average, a lot of wet and windy weather moves in for the remainder of the month.

    [b]March[/b]

    Climate Simulator - It says the first half will remain cold and the second half does become slighter warmer but stays just under average.

    [attachment=230431:marsim.png]

    Rainfall - It's looking mostly average with the South West of England perhaps seeing drier weather.

    [attachment=230429:MarchRain.png]

    Temperature - The CFS goes for average temperatures during March.

    [attachment=230430:MarchTemp.png]

    [size=5][b]March Summary[/b][/size] - The first 3 weeks (1st to 22nd) is looking mostly cold as the Atlantic begins to weaken again the blocking pattern reappears giving the UK and Ireland a chance to see more wintry weather.

    The last week (23rd to 31st) the blocked pattern starts to collapse again and the cold temperatures start to rise. High pressure starts to move in across the South West giving off settled weather across the South as the North turns unsettled.

    [b]Too Long Didn't Read Version[/b] - December mainly unsettled and average turning colder in the final part with a chance of snow. January mostly cold but unsettled in the South at times and turning colder everywhere towards the very end. February first half looking very cold and wintry but turning more unsettled in the North at the end and the South remains settled. March switches back to cold weather for most of the time but becomes more average and unsettled in the very end.

    I will continue to do my monthly forecasts through the winter. I just decided to do a very long range forecast for this winter.
  2. Zenarcher
    [b]El Nino[/b]

    It's expected to stay in the neutral zone for the rest of this summer. But slowly dips down during autumn. It will stay around the -1 mark through the winter so not as strong as lasts winters.

    [attachment=119400:El Nino June 2011 Onwards.gif]


    [b]Rainfall[/b]

    July is looking average for rainfall amounts which is good news for those that need some.

    [attachment=119401:July Rainfall.png]


    August in Southern Scotland and Northern England may see slightly less rainfall elsewhere average.

    [attachment=119402:August Rainfall.png]


    September and October both looking similar carrying on the average rainfall but during October Northern Ireland can expect less rainfall.

    [attachment=119403:September Rainfall.png]

    [attachment=119404:October Rainfall.png]


    November average for most but Southern England and Southern Ireland can expect less rainfall.

    [attachment=119405:November Rainfall.png]


    December average for most except Southern Scotland and Northern England can expect more rainfall.

    [attachment=119406:December Rainfall.png]


    January 2012 to March 2012 it's very far away but it looks similar to December average for most except those in Southern Scotland and Northern England who will get more than average rainfall.

    [attachment=119407:JantoMar2012.png]


    Temperatures

    2 weeks ago forecasts said average temperatures from July 2011 to March 2012 and now 2 weeks later it still says the same thing. There's a lot of talk about a colder than average winter but at the moment I can't see it happening.

    That's me for now I will update this on the 22nd of July.

    Sean.
  3. Zenarcher
    [center]Updated summary below and in the comments - Last Updated 9th February 2013.[/center]

    [center][size=5]2012 - 2013 Winter Forecast[/size][/center]

    [center]Written By Sean Macdonald aka on NW weathermaster[/center]


    [center][b]How the forecast has been made[/b][/center]

    I've used the CFS monthly mean maps that pick up long range trends for the upcoming months. But I have also used a program called ''Climate Simulator'' to help back up my forecast in certain area's. I used the program several times last year and it proved pretty accurate and for this winter it has some interesting thoughts. I have gone through a lot of data from the year 2012 to get the mean temps from different parts of the world to build up a realistic picture for the simulator. I ran the model several times in it's highest resolution and checked the data over for trends each time. It took about 5 minutes to complete it's calculations each time, it takes all sorts of technical information from solar activity to the current state of our global climate.

    [center][size=5][b]December[/b][/size][/center]
    [b]Temperature[/b]

    The CFS monthly average shows warmer temperaure's in Greenland. Meanwhile down at the UK we are a few degrees colder than normal. This is something the climate simulation agree's on both that Greenland should be warmer and the UK colder.

    [attachment=146269:cfsdecembertemp.gif]

    [b]Rainfall[/b]

    The monthly mean is showing it to be below average thanks to the blocking.

    [attachment=146270:cfsdecemberrain.gif]

    [b]Pressure[/b]

    High pressure is expected to be strong over Greenland and Iceland meanwhile over Europe is where the low pressure
    is likely to be.

    [attachment=146271:pressuredecember.png]

    [b]Overall[/b] - I expect December to be the coldest month of the winter. We have good agreement from both the simulations and the CFS mean that Greenland is expected to be warmer and the UK colder. We also have the pressure patterns showing things to be blocked.










    [center][b][size=5]January[/size][/b][/center]
    [b]Temperature[/b]

    The simulator still gives below average temperatures here however the CFS does disagree and shows mostly average temperatures and maybe even slightly higher than normal for England.

    [attachment=146272:cfsjanuarytemp.gif]

    I've made up this image below to explain why January is still expected to be okay and the difference to last years January. Also yes the simulation agrees on above average temperatures in the Svalbard region as well.

    [attachment=146275:Jantempsexplained.png]

    [b]Rainfall[/b]

    [attachment=146273:cfsjanuaryrain.gif]

    The CFS goes for above average rainfall for most of the UK for January.

    [b]Pressure[/b]

    Low pressure is expected to sit over the UK and in the Atlantic this is the reason for the near to average temperatures and rainfall. However over the Svalbard area pressure is expected to stay high there.

    [attachment=146274:pressurejanuary.png]

    [b]Overall[/b] - While I expect most of January to have near to average temperatures but mostly slightly lower than normal the signals to me are clear that with blocking likely we will see some cold spells occur through this month.










    [center][size=5][b]February[/b][/size][/center]
    [b]Temperature[/b]

    Once again the simulator goes for temperatures to still be below average but the CFS still disagree's and goes for mostly average temperatures and above average in England once again.

    [attachment=146276:cfsfebuarytemp.gif]

    Just like January I explain why the temperatures are still a good thing for us. (Sorry about the images being different they've updated them to look better this year.)

    [attachment=146277:Febtempexplained.png]

    [b]Rainfall[/b]

    After a wet January I expect things to go back to normal by Febuary in fact England may recieve lower than
    average.

    [attachment=146278:cfsfebuaryrain.gif]

    [b]Pressure[/b]

    Very strong over our North and East,

    [attachment=146279:pressurefebuary.png]

    [b]Overall thoughts[/b] - I believe February will be similar to January but current trends suggest blocking may be even stronger, also the month may be drier than normal.

    [b]The climate simulation graphs,[/b]

    Once it has completed it's calculations it allows you to check graphs for each area of the world they aren't fancy or anything but I'll explain,

    [b]Greenland temp,[/b]

    [attachment=146280:greenlandtemp.png]

    So the green line is the average temperature you get in Greenland and then the pink one is the simulated temperature. The other two lines which are blue meaning daily minimum average and red daiy highest average, interestingly even the daily high average is much higher than average so this gives support to the CFS on it's temperature forecast.

    [b]UK temp,[/b]

    [attachment=146282:uktemp.png]

    The first part the few blocks are 3 months December, January and February and they show the pink line the simulation to be below average compared to the green line. The last few blocks when the lines start to rise shows early spring where things go slightly back to normal, anyway this is also good news for us.

    [b]Svalbard temp,[/b]

    [attachment=146281:Svalbarbtemp.png]

    Just like on the UK one first few blocks where the line is flat is our winter months and the simulation went for above average temperatures once again supporting the CFS. The lines going up are is just spring when the average temps rise.

    I didn't expect to use the climate simulator in my forecast because I've only used it briefly last year. This year I read more into it and when I ran a few simulations and compared it to the CFS I was surprised to see agreement between them and thought it would be great to use it as back up.

    ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    [b]9th of February 2013 Update From CFS[/b]

    [color=#000000][b]February:[/b][font=helvetica, arial, sans-serif][size=3] Above average rainfall for England and Wales but elsewhere below average. Temperatures close to average but at times below average. Pressure patterns indicate low pressure to sit over Europe and high pressure over our North, the Azores high starts to gain some strength as well.[/size][/font]

    [b]March: [/b][font=helvetica, arial, sans-serif][size=3]Rainfall well below average for Scotland but elsewhere above average. Temperatures below average everywhere. Azores high weakens completely and low pressure sits out in the Atlantic but high pressure sits over Iceland and Greenland giving off cold temperatures.[/size][/font]

    [b]Climate Simulator February Update[/b]

    [font=helvetica, arial, sans-serif][size=3]So far this winter it's done really well in my view, I last ran it in early January and now with the latest data from around the world I have ran it again to see what it says. Basically it agrees with the CFS on temperatures being slightly below average for February but shows temperatures go well below average for March interesting to see this as it hasn't done this before, it has shown only temperatures to be slightly below average so this will be interesting for March and not only that the CFS also goes for temperatures in March to go down below average.[/size][/font]

    [b]Overall - [/b][font=helvetica, arial, sans-serif][size=3]Not much left of winter now I expect February to be fairly average and any cold spell not to be extreme and will be short lived as for March early signs are saying it could be a very cold and perhaps snowy end to the winter.[/size][/font][/color]
  4. Zenarcher
    At the [url="http://forum.netweather.tv/blog/227/entry-4452-very-early-first-look-at-winter-20122013/"]start of August[/url] I posted a blog entry giving a forecast for the winter ahead now 30 days later it's time for an update.

    [b]Rainfall Averages,[/b]

    [b]October:[/b][color=#282828][font=helvetica, arial, sans-serif] Still looking average for the UK but Southern Scotland below average.[/font][/color]
    [b]November:[/b][color=#282828][font=helvetica, arial, sans-serif] Below average for most of Ireland, Scotland and Northern England, elsewhere average.[/font][/color]
    [b]December:[/b] Below average for Southern Scotland and South Eastern England, elsewhere average.
    [b]January:[/b][color=#282828][font=helvetica, arial, sans-serif] Below average for most of the UK, mainly inland area's but average for the coasts.[/font][/color]
    [color=#282828][font=helvetica, arial, sans-serif][b]February: [/b]Average for most but below for Southern England and Northern Ireland.[/font][/color]

    [color=#282828][font=helvetica, arial, sans-serif][b]Changes in the last month: [/b]The CFS has changed from what looked like to be mainly average rainfall to below average for most of the winter.[/font][/color]

    [b]Temperatures[/b][color=#282828][font=helvetica, arial, sans-serif] still looking average for most of the winter but it looks like below average for South Eastern England during January and February.[/font][/color]

    [b]Changes in the last month:[/b] Not much still saying average for most of the winter, the only change is colder temperatures for the South East.

    [b]Current Long Range Outlook Based On CFS,[/b]

    [b]October:[/b][color=#282828][font=helvetica, arial, sans-serif] First 2 weeks high pressure mainly in charge. Final 2 weeks more unsettled with some short cold spells from the North.[/font][/color]

    [color=#282828][font=helvetica, arial, sans-serif][b]November:[/b] The entire month is completely dominated by high pressure so a very settled and dry month.[/font][/color]

    [b]December:[/b][color=#282828][font=helvetica, arial, sans-serif] Another month completely dominated by high pressure but this time a Easterly is more likely so cold weather for the East and South.[/font][/color]

    [b]January:[/b][color=#282828][font=helvetica, arial, sans-serif] This is now the third month running with high pressure still in charge although this time cold weather is less likely more mild temperatures. Another settled month.[/font][/color]

    [b]February:[/b][color=#282828][font=helvetica, arial, sans-serif] In the first week we get a short lived Easterly giving us cold weather then for the rest of the month it turns even colder when a Northerly takes charge.[/font][/color]

    [b]March:[/b][color=#282828][font=helvetica, arial, sans-serif] During the first 2 weeks we start off with a strong Easterly then it turns into another Northerly. For the rest of March high pressure takes charge again and turns into a very short lived Northerly to finish it all off.[/font][/color]

    [color=#282828][font=helvetica, arial, sans-serif]Some big changes in the forecast for this winter the CFS has gone from a winter similar to last year to now a much colder, drier and settled one. I will update this again at the end of September.[/font][/color]
  5. Zenarcher
    [b]Introduction,[/b]

    Over the course of September and October this year I carried out a experiment to see what weather models performed the best at different time ranges from 24 hours to 144 hours.

    [b]How it works,[/b]

    Firstly I would let all the models do their 12z runs so none over them had a 12 hour advantage over another. Once they had done their 12z run I would pick a location and each model predicted its thought on it. The models then get awarded points on how close they are.

    [b]The results for forecasting 24 hours out. It was very tight most of them got the predictions correct but GME was more consistent gaining the highest average points.[/b]


    1. GME 127.
    2. ENS 119.
    3. GFS 110.
    4. ECM 107.
    5. NOGAPS 107.
    6. UKMO 106.
    7. NAE 99.
    8. GEM 94.
    9. CMC 91.
    10. JMA 80.
    11. RHMC 78.

    [b]The results for forecasting 48 hours out. The ECM always performed well and is 20 points clear of the GFS ENS.[/b]


    1. ECM 98.
    2. ENS 78.
    3. GFS 72.
    4. CMC 72.
    5. NOGAPS 66.
    5. JMA 61.
    7. UKMO 58.
    8. NAE 58.
    9. GME 56.
    10. GEM 56.
    11. RHMC 34.

    [b]The results for forecasting 72 hours out. This was another tight one with 6 weather models doing very well but overall we have a tie between ECM and GEM.[/b]


    1. ECM 46.
    2. GEM 46.
    3. CMC 44.
    4. NOGAPS 44.
    5. UKMO 44.
    6. GME 44.
    7. GFS 40.
    8. JMA 30.
    9. ENS 28.
    10. RHMC 26.

    [b]The results for forecasting 96 hours out. You may have noticed there's only 8 now because RHMC and GME don't go over 96 hours. So overall JMA done very well here despite not doing to well in the previous results.[/b]


    1. JMA 52.
    2. UKMO 42.
    3. GFS 34.
    4. NOGAPS 34.
    5. ECM 34.
    6. GEM 26.
    7. CMC 24.
    8. ENS 24.

    [b]The results for forecasting 120 hours out. I was surprised to see NOGAPS do well here but it always performed well.[/b]


    1. NOGAPS 64.
    2. GEM 45.
    3. ECM 44.
    4. ENS 42.
    5. CMC 38.
    6. JMA 36.
    7. GFS 32.
    8. UKMO 16.

    [b]And finally for forecasting 144 hours out. The GFS done well here and followed by the ECM.[/b]


    1. GFS 51.
    2. ECM 44.
    3. ENS 37.
    4. UKMO 34.
    5. NOGAPS 30.
    6. CMC 20.
    7. JMA 20.
    8. GEM 19.

    [b]So what weather models are the best? I have added up the points below and the ECM has won overall gaining the most points followed by a tie between GFS and NOGAPS. I think it may surprise people on how poorly the UKMO performed.[/b]


    1. ECM 313.
    2. GFS 293.
    3. NOGAPS 293.
    4. GFS ENS 284.
    5. CMC 251.
    6. UKMO 248.
    7. GEM 242.
    8. JMA 231.

    I hope you found this interesting and I will carry out the same experiment again at the start of 2012.
  6. Zenarcher
    [center]Update 21st July 2013[/center]
    [color=rgb(40,40,40)][font=helvetica]
    A small update from my original summer forecast back in May,[/font][/color]
    [color=rgb(40,40,40)][font=helvetica]
    First onto August and September the CFS seems confident on average temperatures for the rest of the summer. As for rainfall, August average with some Western area's seeing below average rainfall as we move into September things change around with most of the UK seeing very wet weather to end the summer.[/font][/color]
    [color=rgb(40,40,40)][font=helvetica]
    And with more data available I have reran the climate simulator for the temperatures,[/font][/color]
    [color=rgb(40,40,40)][font=helvetica]
    [url="http://forum.netweather.tv/index.php?app=core&module=attach&section=attach&attach_rel_module=post&attach_id=178427"][img]http://f.nwstatic.co.uk/forum/uploads/monthly_07_2013/xpost-6686-0-65940600-1374419197_thumb.png.pagespeed.ic.QuvtB48KXC.png[/img][/url][/font][/color]
    [color=rgb(40,40,40)][font=helvetica]
    The pink line is our forecast average temperature and the green line is the average so its basically saying the average temperatures for the rest of summer to be mainly 1.5c above average.[/font][/color]

    [center][size=6][b]Summer Forecast 2013[/b][/size][/center]

    [size=5][b]How the forecast was made[/b][/size]

    I've used the CFS monthly mean maps that pick up long range term trends for the upcoming months. I have also
    used a program called Clima Sim to help back up my forecast in certain area's. I used the program for the winter forecast and it done well, so I will be using it again for the summer forecast. After checking how Clima Sim handled the winter it does seem to forecast temperatures slightly more accurate than the CFS.

    [size=5][b]June [/b][/size]- Last year we saw a very unsettled June with very heavy rain at times causing places to flood, low pressure mainly dominated the month we also had strong winds and the mean temperature was 0.7 °C below average. I believe June 2013 will be very different to last years.

    [b]Temperature[/b]

    [attachment=172100:JuneTemp.png]

    For June 2013 the CFS shows it to be average for all of the UK apart from the Eastern coasts of England that may be slightly on the below average temperatures.

    [b]Rainfall[/b]

    [attachment=172101:JuneRainfall.png]

    In the image above it shows June 2012 being a very wet month and that the CFS had it forecast to be wet. This year the CFS goes for a very dry month over Scotland, Ireland, Northern & South Western England and Wales, with the rest being average.

    [b]Pressure[/b]

    [attachment=172102:JunePressure.png]

    The image above shows high pressure being high over the Atlantic region and into Western parts of the UK this would explain the average temperatures and drier weather especially for those in the West and North.

    [size=5][b]July[/b][/size] - Last year it continued the unsettled theme with more rainfall, low pressure in charge and the overall mean temperature was 1.0 °C below average. The weather did get slightly warmer and drier towards the end though. For this year it may continue what June had.

    [b]Temperature[/b]

    [attachment=172103:JulyTemp.png]

    Its looking very similar to what June has average everywhere apart from the Eastern coasts that could be just slightly cooler than average. Overall it does look to be warmer than last years July.

    [b]Rainfall[/b]

    [attachment=172104:JulyRainfall.png]

    The CFS goes for Ireland and Southern Scotland to be very dry elsewhere either slightly drier or average.

    [b]Pressure[/b]

    [attachment=172105:JulyPressure.png]

    Any high pressure doesn't look strong over the UK but it should mainly appear in the Atlantic. Low pressure sits to our East. This would explain why temperatures to the far East are at risk of being slightly cooler.

    [size=5][b]August[/b][/size] - Last year it was again dominated by low pressure with more wind and rain and only the South East of England saw the best of the dry weather and sunshine. Temperatures were however 0.4 °C above average. August this year may be similar to last years. It is important to note confidence levels drop a bit here.

    [b]Temperature[/b]

    Average for the entire UK so similar to last years August temperatures.

    [b]Rainfall[/b]

    [attachment=172106:AugustRainfall.png]

    The CFS goes for above average rainfall over Ireland, Wales and the Midlands. Elsewhere remaining average.

    [b]Pressure[/b]

    [attachment=172107:AugustPressure.png]

    At the moment it's looking like it will be a battle between high and low pressure. High pressure mainly very strong to our East and low pressure to our West in the Atlantic. The low pressure doesn't look strong though so the high pressure may win and give the UK a decent spell of good weather.

    [size=5][b]September[/b] [/size]- Last year the first half started off fine for most but the second half became more unsettled. It was another summer month with below average temperatures that were 0.7 °C below the average mean. Confidence for September is low at the moment.

    [b]Temperature[/b]

    Average for all of the UK so may be slightly warmer than last years.

    [b]Rainfall[/b]

    [attachment=172109:SeptemberRainfall.png]

    Below average over Scotland and South Western England. Elsewhere average.

    [b]Pressure[/b]

    [attachment=172108:SeptemberPressure.png]

    High pressure is to our West and East but low pressure is expected to be over the UK.

    [size=5][b]Climate Simulations[/b][/size]

    [attachment=172110:ClimateSim.png]

    After finally getting the data needed to run the simulations the results are in for the summer, so to put the image above into simple words the results came back saying that the temperatures on average through the summer will be about 0.5°C above average. It didn't show anything very warm or cold just slightly warmer than usual overall.

    [size=5][b]Overall Thoughts[/b][/size]

    Starting with temperatures looking through the CFS trends and the Climate Simulator data temperatures are forecast be be either average or just slightly above average. None of them are showing anything very warm or cold. Onto rainfall and it looks like it will start off much drier than normal with June and July. August changes this as it turns average everywhere with Wales and the Midlands looking to be wetter. September takes us back to drier rainfall amounts close to average.

    To sum it up in a few words, mainly drier than usual with temperatures being average or slightly above average but no exceptional warm spell expected.

    I hope you enjoyed reading this forecast.
  7. Zenarcher
    [center]Short update can be found at the very bottom[/center]

    [center][size=5]Autumn 2013 Forecast[/size][/center]

    The forecast below is made using the CFS monthly and seasonal forecast data as well as data from Climate Simulator a program where I input data of the current climate and it calculates the temperatures of the following months.

    [size=5]September[/size]

    Temperatures - For the rest of September near to average, with Southern parts of England experiencing some brief periods of colder weather.

    Rainfall - Similar with the temperatures for the rest of the month average rainfall.

    [size=5]October[/size]

    Rainfall - October for most of the UK is looking above average especially for Western parts meanwhile the far East coasts may get away with average rainfall amounts.

    [attachment=185915:OR.png]

    Temperature - Overall the UK in general looks to have average temperatures but Southern parts of England may get some spells of warmer weather and the far North of Scotland some spells of colder weather. Climate Simulator backs up the CFS forecasts and gives the UK temperatures 0.3c above average.

    [attachment=185916:OT.png]

    [size=5]November[/size]

    Rainfall - November is expected to carry on the above rainfall amounts from October although this time its mostly England, Wales and Ireland while most of Scotland are closer to average in the North.

    [attachment=185917:NR.png]

    Temperatures - Average temperatures for the whole of the UK says the CFS but the Climate Simulator gives us 0.5c above average temperatures. Overall I believe Novembers temperatures will be mostly average but some periods of weather may bring in slightly warmer temperatures.

    [size=5]Monthly Pressure Patterns[/size]

    [size=5]October - [/size]Strong high pressure sits to our North West in the Atlantic,

    [attachment=185920:Preo.png]

    [size=5]November -[/size] Similar pressure set up to October,

    [attachment=185921:Pren.png]

    [center][size=5]Start of Winter Predictions[/size][/center]

    [size=5]December[/size]

    This isn't a actual forecast yet just a very quick look at the start of winter.

    Rainfall - Looking very wet across the West and average elsewhere.

    Temperatures - CFS goes for average temperatures and Climate Simulator 0.3c above average.

    [size=5]Overall -[/size] Autumn looks mostly wet and probably unsettled at times, temperatures close to average for most of the time but some mild spells of weather may make things slightly warmer than usual. Early winter looks to carry this on through being wet with around average temperatures.


    [center][b][size=5]Update 1st of November 2013[/size][/b][/center][color=rgb(40,40,40)][font=helvetica]
    [b]November[/b][/font][/color]
    [color=rgb(40,40,40)][font=helvetica]
    Rainfall - Average or above average in general but the far North of Scotland may get away with slightly less than average.[/font][/color]
    [color=rgb(40,40,40)][font=helvetica]
    Temperature - Using both Climate Simulator and CFS data they agree on temperatures staying above average or at times close to average.[/font][/color]
    [color=rgb(40,40,40)][font=helvetica]
    Pressure Patterns - Low pressure mainly situated over Iceland and high pressure over Europe and at times over the UK. With the UK being sandwiched between the two it explains the average or above average temperatures and rainfall mostly above average.[/font][/color]
    [color=rgb(40,40,40)][font=helvetica]
    Quick look at the start of Winter December and January - Please note this isn't my winter 2013/2014 forecast it will be put together at the end of November.[/font][/color]
    [color=rgb(40,40,40)][font=helvetica]
    [b]December[/b] - Lower than average temperatures and rainfall going by the CFS. Climate Simulator doesn't exactly agree it goes for more average temperatures but does agree on some short cold spells making temperatures drop just slightly below average.[/font][/color]
    [color=rgb(40,40,40)][font=helvetica]
    [b]January[/b] - Below average rainfall for the North but above for the South. Average temps in the South but below average in the North says the CFS. Climate Simulator which I've been using for over a year now and yet to be wrong goes for average temperatures in the first half of January with short cold spells but the second half of January turns much colder about 1.5c nearly 2c below normal. It will be interesting to see if it changes it mind when running it again with more data at the end of the month for the winter forecast.[/font][/color]
  8. Zenarcher
    [center][b][size=5]9. Blocked pattern towards the end of November and start of December.[/size][/b][/center]

    [center][img]http://i707.photobucket.com/albums/ww79/Sean2e5/Nov_zpsa5004e46.png[/img][/center]

    It was something that got many people talking about what December may hold for us. Some remained positive but for others they thought it wasn't good enough and cancelled winter before it had even properly started.

    [center][size=5][b]8. December a month of the models taunting us with eye watering charts but never really came to much.[/b][/size][/center]

    [center][img]http://i707.photobucket.com/albums/ww79/Sean2e5/Dec_zpsa6ef37b6.png[/img][/center]

    The models through December showed some amazing charts the GFS 18z lived up to it's name a few times and proved why its called the pub run. December overall was colder than average but didn't bring the mega snowfalls the models had promised.

    [center][size=5][b]7. The Atlantic fight back over Christmas and New Year.[/b][/size][/center]

    [center][img]http://i707.photobucket.com/albums/ww79/Sean2e5/DecCN_zps98fcba9b.png[/img][/center]

    The Atlantic driven weather appeared over the Christmas and New Year holidays most people were too drunk to care though. Anyway the low pressure system here brought gusts over 80mph to Scotland before the year 2012 came to a close. Some GFS members had this low looking rather nasty at one point down to 930mb.

    [center][size=5][b]6. So close but no cigar.[/b][/size][/center]

    [center][img]http://i707.photobucket.com/albums/ww79/Sean2e5/JanClose_zps457fbf1d.png[/img][/center]

    A phrase commonly used when we get so close to something cold and snowy but either we see a big downgrade or the Atlantic crashes through. This pretty much summed up the whole of January so many close calls but nothing note worthy in the end.


    [center][size=5][b]5. January monster storm.[/b][/size][/center]

    [center][img]http://i707.photobucket.com/albums/ww79/Sean2e5/Janrec_zpsfd65966d.png[/img][/center]

    As shown on the image above a huge strong low happened towards the end of January that broke a record.

    [center][img]http://i707.photobucket.com/albums/ww79/Sean2e5/Janrec2_zps92e11d61.png[/img][/center]

    The above image is NOGAPS trying to forecast this low pressure a very early attempt from it and just crazy. It's so deep it goes off the scale.

    [center][size=5][b]4. February came to the rescue.[/b][/size][/center]

    [center][img]http://i707.photobucket.com/albums/ww79/Sean2e5/Feb_zps9375d014.png[/img][/center]

    After months of waiting for something to happen, toys were laying on floor in the model out put discussion room, people had said winter is over. February made it all worth while by bringing cold weather with some sunshine as well.

    [center][b][size=5]3. March laughs at February's attempt and goes out to show how its done.[/size][/b][/center]

    [center][img]http://i707.photobucket.com/albums/ww79/Sean2e5/March_zpse0ce41ae.png[/img][/center]

    March in general was incredible with plenty of cold weather around for the whole month. This winter to me reminds us all that the cold snowy weather that we all want can arrive at the end. Be patient, sit tight and enjoy the ride next year folks.

    [center][b][size=5]2. Net Weather Turns 10 Years Old[/size][/b][/center]

    [center][img]http://sujenman.files.wordpress.com/2010/12/10-years.png[/img][/center]
    A great achievement for Net Weather happened during February it turned 10 years old. Members of the forum congratulated Paul on the huge success.


    [center][size=5][b]1. Ian Browns WTF[/b][/size][/center]

    [center][img]http://i707.photobucket.com/albums/ww79/Sean2e5/Ian_zps8f666ae9.png[/img][/center]

    [center]Wait this isn't a weather event? I know but it's a very great moment for Net Weather on Tuesday the 8th of January as the ECM hit 144 hours like this,[/center]

    [center][img]http://i707.photobucket.com/albums/ww79/Sean2e5/JanWTF_zpsf90e371a.png[/img][/center]

    It left Ian Brown lost for words for possibly the first time ever. Currently it is the most liked post on Net Weather with over 160 likes.
  9. Zenarcher
    [size=3]Before I start bear in mind I am using the CFS model data and looking out to 6 months so things are likely to change I am just looking at early signs and what its saying at the moment.[/size]

    [b]Rainfall Averages,[/b]

    [b]October:[/b] Average for most but below average in Northern Ireland and Scotland.
    [b]November:[/b] Average.
    [b]December: [/b]Average.
    [b]January:[/b] Average.
    [b]February: [/b]Average for South and below average for North.

    [b]Temperatures[/b] looking average for the UK all through the winter but most of Europe does look to get cold weather in December.

    [b]Current Long Range Outlook Based On CFS,[/b]

    [b]October:[/b] High pressure for the first 20 days, becoming more unsettled and slightly colder in the final 11 days.

    [b]November:[/b] First 2 weeks we have high pressure over Greenland and Iceland so the UK has colder weather and unsettled in Western parts. 3rd week very strong PV over Greenland but the UK is under a massive high pressure system. Final week unsettled and stormy.

    [b]December:[/b] First 2 weeks staying unsettled and stormy but shows signs of improvement in the 3rd week with cold weather. The final goes back to being unsettled.

    [b]January:[/b] High pressure for most of the month so looking settled then in the final week things get a lot colder.

    [b]February:[/b] Stays cold for the first half but for the second half goes back to unsettled stormy weather.

    [b]March:[/b] High pressure mainly in charge with short cold spells.

    Thanks for reading that is what the CFS has to say for our winter at the moment and it will change. I will update this in a months time.
  10. Zenarcher
    In 2011 I done a experiment to see how the models perform in 2012 I done the same thing. The experiment took place during September and October. Basically how it works fairly they all make a forecast on the same day at the same time (12z) then when the actual time comes I check the actual weather conditions and see how accurate they were. The models faced tough challenges mainly in September when Hurricane Nadine made the models struggle. The points system rewards the models more points the further out they get things right so if they get something right in the next 24 hours the points awarded are not all that big but at 144 hours the points rewarded are huge.

    [b]24 hours[/b]

    1. GEM 120
    2. GME 110
    3. ECM 110
    4. GFS 100
    5. UKMO 100
    6. JMA 100
    7. BOM 100
    8. NOGAPS 80

    [b]Comments -[/b] It was always really close but GEM did surprise me to come out on top.

    [b]48 hours[/b]

    1. ECM 100
    2. UKMO 100
    3. GFS 90
    4. GME 80
    5. JMA 80
    6. GEM 80
    7. BOM 80
    8. NOGAPS 70

    [b]Comments -[/b] It was again very close here and we end up with the ECM and UKMO with the same points.

    [b]72 hours[/b]

    1. NOGAPS 100
    2. GFS 90
    3. ECM 80
    4. UKMO 80
    5. JMA 80
    6. GME 70
    7. BOM 70
    8. GEM 60

    [b]Comments -[/b] I was surprised to see NOGAPS score the best here considering it did the poorest with 24 and 48 hours.

    [b]96 hours[/b]

    1. GFS 150
    2. UKMO 150
    3. JMA 150
    4. BOM 135
    5. ECM 120
    6. NOGAPS 120
    7. GEM 120

    [b]Comments -[/b] A three way tie between the GFS, UKMO and JMA, I was surprised to see the JMA do well here.

    [b]120 hours[/b]

    1. GEM 175
    2. UKMO 145
    3. ECM 130
    4. BOM 125
    5. JMA 105
    6. GFS 95
    7. NOGAPS 50

    [b]Comments -[/b] GEM just done incredible here most of the time it got things spot on not only that it was consistent as well.

    [b]144 hours[/b]

    1. UKMO 195
    2. GEM 185
    3. JMA 155
    4. BOM 145
    5. ECM 120
    6. GFS 115
    7. NOGAPS 35

    [b]Comments - [/b]Very close between the UKMO and GEM but the UKMO just managed to gain a few more points.

    [b]Overall[/b]

    1. UKMO 770.
    2. GEM 740.
    3. JMA 670.
    4. ECM 660.
    5. BOM 655.
    6. GFS 640.
    7. NOGAPS 455.
    8. GME 260.

    [b]Comments -[/b] Last year the ECM took the victory well now it's dropped down to 4th, GEM and JMA done better this year and UKMO overall was the best performing model through the whole experiment gaining 30 points more than GEM in second.

    I hope you found this interesting it is not meant to say what model is the best or anything but just a experiment I done and would like to share with you all.
  11. Zenarcher
    To view part 2 you can click [url="http://forum.netweather.tv/blog/227/entry-4469-very-early-first-look-at-winter-20122013-part-2/"]here[/url].

    [b]Rainfall,[/b]

    [b]October:[/b] It looks like Northern parts of the UK will experience lower than average rainfall meanwhile Southern parts will get more rainfall.

    [b]November:[/b] It is looking mainly average for most of the UK but again Northern parts may see lower rainfall.

    [b]December: [/b]The below average rainfall trend continues from the Autumn and into the first part of the winter with most area's getting below average.

    [b]January: [/b]The rainfall goes back to being average during this month and some Western parts of Wales and Ireland look to see slightly more rainfall than normal.

    [b]February:[/b] We switch back over to below average for most parts of the UK.

    [b]March:[/b] All parts of the UK go back to normal but all of England stay below average.

    [b]Changes in the last month: [/b]The CFS is still going for rainfall this winter to be mainly below average it has said this for the past 2 months so confidence is building.

    [b]Temperatures:[/b] On this update the CFS still shows average temperatures for the UK through the whole winter something it has also said for the past 2 months.

    [b]Current Long Range CFS Run,[/b]

    [b]October: [/b]The first 2 weeks we see unsettled weather across all of the UK. During the 3rd week high pressure takes charge but only for a short while then another unsettled spell takes over for the end of the month.

    [b]November: [/b]Looking mainly unsettled with the Atlantic in charge we see constant low pressure systems move in from the West bringing us a mixed bag of weather.

    [b]December:[/b] The first 3 weeks see a blocked weather pattern giving us a long settled period of weather. During the end of the month some Northerlies come down and give us some wintry weather.

    [b]January: [/b]Goes back to the Atlantic being in charge so we see more unsettled weather for pretty much the whole month.

    [b]February:[/b] It doesn't change from January and stays unsettled but this time mainly over the North while Southern parts experience brief high pressure.

    [b]March:[/b] For the first 2 weeks it stays unsettled but eventually by week 3 we get a short lived settled spell before going back to being unsettled to end March.

    [b]Overall [/b]the trend continues for rainfall to be mainly below average and the temperatures to be average. The current CFS run shows the winter being mainly unsettled and December being the best bet at the moment for anything cold. Another update will be done near the end of October where we take a last look at Autumn 2012 and a better look at the winter.
  12. Zenarcher
    [center][b]The Biggest Weather Events Through The Winter And How They Were Forecast[/b][/center]

    During the winter of 2011 into early 2012 we had some very active Atlantic storms this was due to a strong jet steam. The winter of 2011 and 2012 will not be remembered as a cold and snowy one but we did get some cold weather near the end.

    [b]11[sup]th[/sup] September 'Hurricane Katia'[/b]

    [center][attachment=138689:katia.jpg][/center]

    The first low pressure system headed towards the British Isles much earlier than usual. I remember the GFS picked it up in FI but didn't know where the storm was going to go. The media caught onto it early and hyped it up with headlines like 'Hurricane to hit Britiain' etc. On September 9th the Met Office issued warnings for parts of the UK for strong winds. The highest wind speed recorded on low land was 81mph and on high ground 98mph. The storm caused damage across the UK with damage estimated to be around £100 million.

    [center][b]25th November '[color=#000000][font=sans-serif][b][background=rgb(249, 249, 249)]Cyclone Xaver'[/background][/b][/font][/color][/b][/center]

    [center][attachment=138690:xavier.png][/center]

    Although the storm did not directly hit the UK it did bring very strong winds, heavy rain and snow to Scotland. The Faroe Islands which are situated to the very far North of the UK saw the brunt of this storm with wind speeds of 120mph recorded and the pressure reached 944mb. It caused a large amount of damage there even in a place that is used to Atlantic storms. The storm was well forecast by the computer models which allowed plenty of time for warnings.

    [center][b]8th December 'Hurricane Bawbag'[/b][/center]

    [center][attachment=138691:bawbag.png][/center]

    This is a storm where computer models struggled on. At first just a few days before it was due to hit Scotland nothing was picked up. The computer models eventually got the hang of things about 2 days before. The direct impact area was still unclear even the night before it struck. The official name of the storm was Friedhelm but people in Scotland called it 'Hurricane Bawbag'. This was the first proper serious storm to hit the UK so far. At the Cairngorm mountains the highest gust recorded was 165mph. It reached a low of 956mb and caused damage across Scotland. Bridges were shut, so were schools and workplaces.

    The storm didn't just bring bad weather to Scotland, a 90mph gust was recorded in Ireland, and gusts between 70 to 80mph were reported in England and Wales.

    Over 70 thousand people in Scotland were left without power for two days.

    [center][b]11th December 'A serious storm appeared on the computer models but later the ECM came to the rescue'[/b][/center]

    [center][attachment=138692:ukmo11.png][/center]
    [center][size=2]The UKMO model showed a 940mb storm.[/size][/center]

    For a few days every weather model had been showing a severe storm hitting mainly Ireland, England and Wales. It caused a lot of concern for the Met Office and the members on Net Weather. On the 11th of December the ECM done its evening run which was watched by 100's it made the storm nearly vanish, it caused a big surprised many thought it was a fluke, later the other models agreed with the ECM, I believe it's one of the ECM's finest moments.

    [center][b]13th December 'Cyclone Hergen'[/b][/center]

    [center][attachment=138693:Hergen.png][/center]

    Hergen was picked up early and well by the computer models. It reached a low of 945mb despite the low pressure it only caused wind gusts over 70mph due to the nature of the system. It did cause very large waves and icy conditions.

    [center][b]3rd January 'Cyclone Ulli'[/b][/center]

    [center][attachment=138694:ulli.png][/center]

    Another storm and the final severe one of the winter. It was picked up early by the computer models with the GFS handling it the best. On the 3rd of January very early in the morning the storm passed Northern Ireland bringing gusts over 100mph. It continued to deepen in pressure and move acorss central Scotland which is highly populated. In Edinburgh gusts over 100mph were recorded. 100's of thousands of people in Northern Ireland and Scotland were left with out power. Damage was also widespread.

    [center][b]End of January to mid February 'Easterly'[/b][/center]

    [center][attachment=138695:Easterly.png][/center]

    After a very stormy start to the winter we saw our weather pattern finally change to something better. Weather models loved to tease us and annoy us with predicted the cold weather but by the end of January to around mid February we finally saw some sort of cold weather.
  13. Zenarcher
    [center][size=5]10. False taste of winter[/size][/center]

    [center][attachment=210712:29Nov.png][/center]

    Towards the end of November the UK got it's first taste of winter with strong Northerly winds and some wintry weather around as well.

    [center][size=5]9. The January tease[/size][/center]

    [center][attachment=210721:Jan.png][/center]

    January was mostly settled and it always felt like it was leading up to something the models would show us some cold charts then downgrade them as we got closer making the whole of this month just a tease that never really mounted to anything in the end.

    [center][size=5]8. Some weather action in January at last! Oh wait just another storm[/size][/center]

    [center][attachment=210722:JanStorm.png][/center]

    Nadja arrived to the North West of the UK towards the end of January it wasn't what everyone wanted we already had enough storms. It brought storm force winds, flooding and thunderstorms to many parts of the UK the storm itself reached 945mb.

    [center][size=5]7. The first of many storms[/size][/center]

    [center][attachment=210713:5Dec.png][/center]

    On the 5th of December a system named Xaver moved over the Northern half of the UK taking a similar route as the previous storm in November. This time however it was much deeper the pressure got down to 962mb and gusts between 70 to 80mph were reported with 142mph being the highest gust recorded in the Scottish Highlands. It also caused the biggest storm surge in the North sea since 1953.

    [center][size=5]6. Erich pays a visit to Ireland[/size][/center]

    [center][attachment=210720:Dec27.png][/center]

    Yet another storm formed at the end of December and although at 944mb it wasn't as deep as the Christmas Eve storm it still brought stormy weather mainly for those in Ireland where 70 to 80mph was reported along with power outages, travel disruption and flooding.

    [center][size=5]5. Two storms in 48 hours[/size][/center]

    [center][attachment=210714:S1.png][/center]
    [center][attachment=210715:S2.png][/center]

    The two storms called Zaki and Adam caused widespread damage across most of the Northern half of the UK on the 14th and 15th of December. 70 to 80mph gusts were reported in Scotland who luckily missed the worst of the winds, further North where the Faroe Isles are 112mph was recorded.

    [center][size=5]4. Storm Bernd baffles the computer models[/size][/center]

    [center][attachment=210716:19Dec.png][/center]

    Just 4 days after two had passed over the UK another one was getting ready. It completely baffled the computer models though due to how it formed in the Atlantic and its route. Even the best models struggled to pin down its strength and route a day before it arrived. When it did arrive it brought 75 to 85mph gusts across the UK mainly in the North. Some places in Ireland and Scotland did report peak gusts over 105mph. It knocked out power supplies and brought flooding to parts of England and Scotland.

    [center][size=5]3. Mid March high pressure[/size][/center]

    [center][attachment=210729:highpressure.png][/center]

    After a winter of constant storms most of us forgot that high pressure even exists. Well it did arrive eventually mid March that gave us some settled weather. But it also meant our chances of seeing any prolonged cold spell had disappeared forcing members back into hibernation for next winter. I've put this high up on the list because it was very pleasing to see a settled spell of weather for those who had been hit badly with the flooding. Usually high pressure like this would be disliked in the winter but this time it was different.

    [center][size=5]2. First half of February constant storms hit Ireland, Wales and England[/size][/center]

    [center][attachment=210723:FebStorms.png][/center]

    Many members had hoped that February could save the winter but no the storms just kept coming. In the first two weeks of February six storms passed over Ireland, Wales and England. Petra 5th, Qumaira 6th, Ruth 8th, Stephanie 9th, Tini 12th, Ulla 14th. All of these storms followed a similar path and affected the same areas in just the two weeks all of them brought storm force winds and some places reported peak gusts over 100mph. Constant power outages, travel disruption and a huge amount of rainfall that caused widespread flooding that affected thousands of people.

    [center][b][size=5]1. Santa has to fly through a 929mb storm on Christmas Eve[/size][/b][/center]

    [center][attachment=210717:santa.png][/center]

    The system called Dirk brought heavy rain over England where some locations broke their records for most rainfall amounts in 24 hours. It caused disruption with travelling on Christmas Eve and flooding. Strong winds affected the UK but this time mostly the South where a station in the English Channel reported a 92mph top gust. On the forum it was closely watched by the members because of how deep this storm was going to get gained it a lot of attention.

    Note: Most sources say it reached 929mb however some websites I came across said it reached 927mb.
  14. Zenarcher

    January 2015 Forecast

    By Zenarcher,

    Hi everyone, well its that time of the month again when I release my monthly forecast. My winter forecast released back in November seems to be doing okay at the moment you can still read it here [url="https://forum.netweather.tv/blog/227/entry-4843-winter-2014-2015-forecast-december-to-march/"]https://forum.netweather.tv/blog/227/entry-4843-winter-2014-2015-forecast-december-to-march/[/url] Anyway here are my latest thoughts on January 2015.

    Made using the CFS long range model along with the Climate Simulator.

    [b]Rainfall[/b] - Ireland, Wales and Western parts of Scotland and England will see above average rainfall while the Eastern coasts of Scotland and Ireland see average rainfall.

    [attachment=235384:janrain.png]

    [b]Temperature[/b] - It's expected to be average for most of the month however the Southern Coasts of England may see some short milder spells.

    [attachment=235385:jantemp.png]

    [b]Pressure Patterns[/b] - Low pressure will mainly be over the UK during January however it doesn't look to be strong so high pressure may move in from time to time. High pressure is expected to sit to our far North, South and North West though which I think is something that will come into play at the very end of the month.

    [attachment=235386:janpressure.png]

    [b]Overall Summary[/b] - Like I said in my winter forecast the first half of January will stay on the colder side but it will be mostly very wet and windy with some very unsettled and stormy bring high winds and large amounts of rainfall especially for those in the West. The second half of January see's the Atlantic lose strength as a blocked pattern begins to develop but won't be fully in place until the final few days of the month. This will give the second half of January a more settled spell of weather with frosts and ice being widespread. Temperatures on a whole are expected to be close to average overall we may see some mild weather develop in the first half of the month with the unsettled weather but the temperatures should remain close or just below average in the second half. It's expected to be a very wet first half to the month for most places so flooding may become an issue and for the second half the rainfall looks average.

    [b]Too Long Didn't Read Version[/b] - Temperatures mainly average. Rainfall mostly very wet in the West average elsewhere. Low pressure mainly in control but blocking pattern expected to arrive in the final part of the month.
  15. Zenarcher
    [center][size=8]NOGAPS[/size][/center]
    [center][size=6]1982 to 2013[/size][/center]

    [size=4][b]The Start:[/b] NOGAPS came into the world in 1982 it's job was simple give the Navy a weather forecast. It impressed people by going to 180 hours and bringing in 4 updates per day.[/size]

    [size=4][b]It's Prime: [/b]NOGAPS did have a prime moment when it was new and updated reguarly it could compete well with the other models at the time.[/size]

    [size=4][b]The Mocking: [/b]In the past few years NOGAPS has become very outdated compared to the other weather models, members of the weather communities would often mock it for being a terrible model and not even worth looking at. However NOGAPS always had some hardcore fans who stood by it through the tough times to give it hope for a better tomorrow.[/size]

    [size=4][b]The end Is Near: [/b]A few months ago NOGAPS received the worst news in it's life it's younger wiser brother would be replacing it in February 2013. It shocked the weather communities around the world and tributes poured in.[/size]

    [size=4][b]The End: [/b]NAVGEM it's replacement has arrived at the moment NOGAPS is still going it's just showing NAVGEM around the place to get settled down but soon NOGAPS will be switched off for good.[/size]

    Thank you NOGAPS I hope you enjoy you're retirement.
  16. Zenarcher
    Here are some pictures of what the weather looked from space during the winter. Of course most of the time the UK was covered in cloud but here are the rare few moments when it was clear enough to see.

    [b]18th March 2015[/b] - Snow over the very top of the Scottish Highland mountains can be seen.

    [attachment=247548:18thmarch.png]

    [b]9th March 2015[/b] - Storm passing over the NW of Scotland bringing gusts over 90mph.

    [attachment=247544:9thmarch.png]

    [b]17th February 2015[/b] - Most of the UK was cloudy but the SE escaped with sunshine.

    [attachment=247547:17thfeb.png]

    [b]14th February 2015[/b] - Excellent clear view of the West of Scotland with snow on the hills over the Highlands.

    [attachment=247545:14thfeb.png]

    [b]29th January 2015[/b] - Another storm brings gusts over 90mph again to the NW of Scotland.

    [attachment=247553:29thjanuary.png]

    [b]19th January 2015[/b] - Just the NE of Scotland got away from the cloud allowing us to see the snow.

    [attachment=247549:19thjanuary.png]

    [b]2nd January 2015[/b] - Most of Ireland, Wales and England got seen.

    [attachment=247543:2ndjanuary.png]

    [b]28th December 2014[/b] - Snowfall moved further South across the country. Wales had some snow on the hills.

    [attachment=247551:28thdecember.png]

    Also on the same day Southern Scotland and Northern England had snow on the hills.

    [attachment=247552:28thdecember2.png]

    [b]16th December 2014[/b] - Snow over the Scottish Highlands.

    [attachment=247546:16thdecemeber.png]

    [b]2nd December 2014[/b] - Really good clear day for Ireland.

    [attachment=247542:2nddecember.png]

    [b]23rd November 2014 [/b]- Cloud to the SE while sunnier elsewhere and a low pressure system giving unsettled weather for the NW this image alone sums up the large difference in weather the UK can experience in a single day.

    [attachment=247550:23rdnovember.png]
  17. Zenarcher
    [b]August 2014[/b][color=rgb(40,40,40)][font=helvetica] - Based on computer generated long range forecasts and the climate simulator that takes the current climate conditions and simulates ahead of time for a forecast prediction.[/font][/color]

    [b]Rainfall[/b] - Western Scotland and the South of Ireland are the two main area's that are likely to see more rainfall than average, the Midlands in England though have a slight risk of seeing above average as well. The rest of the country is expected to be average.

    [attachment=219856:AugustRain.png]

    [b]Temperature[/b] - All of the UK looks to have warmer than average temperatures through August. The Eastern parts of England may see some spells of average temperatures though.

    [attachment=219857:AugustTemp.png]

    [b]Pressure Patterns[/b] - High pressure will mainly be situated in the Atlantic and over Europe while low pressure sits over the UK.

    [attachment=219859:AugustPressure.png]

    [b]Summary [/b]- August 2014 looks to be another warm month for this summer with most places seeing above average temperatures for most of the month. The West of Scotland and Southern parts of Ireland look to see above average rainfall with the Midlands at risk of seeing this as well. Elsewhere though will be average in terms of rainfall. High pressure isn't expected to be over the UK however with it being over Europe and in the Atlantic close by some settled spells can be expected along with unsettled spells as well. August 2014 looks to have a mixed bag of weather in store for us.

    [attachment=219861:AugustSummary.png]
  18. Zenarcher

    April 2014 Forecast

    By Zenarcher,

    [size=5][b]April 2014 -[/b][/size] [color=rgb(40,40,40)][font=helvetica]Based on long range forecasts and the climate simulator.[/font][/color]

    [b][color=rgb(40,40,40)][font=helvetica]Rainfall[/font][/color][/b]

    [color=rgb(40,40,40)][font=helvetica]England, Wales and parts of Ireland and Southern Scotland look most likely to see above average rainfall. Northern Ireland and the rest of Scotland is expected to see average rainfall amounts. Overall I think April could be slightly wetter in some parts of the UK than March.[/font][/color]

    [attachment=210110:Aprilrain.png]

    [b]Temperature[/b]

    All of the UK should see close to average temperatures, so far this year the average temperature has always been over 1°C. For April temperatures are still likely to be slightly over but only by about 0.5°C to 0.8°C. Southern Ireland can expect below normal temperatures during some periods of April where the temperature average may be 0.5°C below. Overall for all of the UK and most of Ireland will see average temperatures and at times slightly over average as Southern Ireland may see some colder temperatures.

    [attachment=210111:Apriltemp.png]

    [b]Pressure Patterns[/b]

    High pressure to the North of the UK is likely to be a strong feature during April this will lead to Northern parts of the UK seeing average rainfall amounts and calmer weather. However low pressure is mainly to the South of the UK and in the Atlantic making these area's at higher risk of above average rainfall but temperatures still remain slightly above average.

    [attachment=210112:Aprilpattern.png]

    [b]Overall[/b]

    [attachment=210113:Aprilsummary.png]

    The image above shows the Southern half of the UK seeing mostly low pressure with above average rainfall and some unsettled weather at times but the temperatures remaining on the average side of things. The Northern half of the UK see's both average temperatures and rainfall thanks to high pressure being in charge it's likely to see calmer weather as well.
  19. Zenarcher
    [b]September 2014[/b][color=rgb(40,40,40)][font=helvetica][font=helvetica] - Based on computer generated long range forecasts and the climate simulator that takes the current climate conditions and simulates ahead of time for a forecast prediction.[/font][/font][/color]
    [b]Rainfall[/b][color=rgb(40,40,40)][font=helvetica] - Most places in the UK and Ireland will be average but Southern Ireland, most of Scotland and England apart from the Northern parts will see below average rainfall. Scotland could see a very dry month.[/font][/color]

    [attachment=223195:SeptemberRain.png]

    [b]Temperature[/b][color=rgb(40,40,40)][font=helvetica] - Recently temperatures have been above average and September is looking to be a month with close to average temperatures for all parts of the UK and Ireland.[/font][/color]

    [attachment=223196:SeptemberTemp.png]
    [b]Pressure Patterns[/b][color=rgb(40,40,40)][font=helvetica] - High pressure will be a strong feature in the East and North East of the UK it is expected to be mainly over the UK and keeps the low pressure systems in the Atlantic away.[/font][/color]

    [attachment=223197:SeptemberPressue.png]
    [b]Summary [/b][color=rgb(40,40,40)][font=helvetica]- September 2014 looks to have average temperatures for most of the month however I expect some periods of weather to bring above average temperatures. As for the rainfall it is looking like a dry month for most of the country especially for the North of the UK this is all thanks to high pressure that is expected to sit over the UK for most of the month bringing plenty of dry and settled weather but also keeping the Atlantic lows away from us. September 2014 looks to be very dry and settled.[/font][/color]

    [attachment=223198:SeptemberSummary.png]
  20. Zenarcher

    May 2014 Forecast

    By Zenarcher,

    [color=rgb(40,40,40)][font=helvetica][size=5][b]May 2014 -[/b][/size][/font][/color][color=rgb(40,40,40)][font=helvetica] [/font][/color][color=rgb(40,40,40)][font=helvetica][font=helvetica]Based on computer generated long range forecasts and the climate simulator that takes the current climate conditions and simulates ahead of time for a forecast prediction.[/font][/font][/color]

    [b][color=rgb(40,40,40)][font=helvetica][font=helvetica]Rainfall[/font][/font][/color][/b]

    [color=rgb(40,40,40)][font=helvetica][font=helvetica]Northern parts of the UK are likely to see below average rainfall through most of May and for the Southern half it will be closer to average. Overall May looks mostly drier than usual especially in the North and then the South being closer to average.[/font][/font][/color]

    [attachment=211463:MayRain.png]

    [b]Temperature[/b]

    The North West of Scotland and the South East of England are the two regions in the UK most likely to have above average temperatures while the rest of the UK stays average. Overall May looks warmer for the North West and South East of the UK but average elsewhere.

    [attachment=211464:MayTemp.png]

    [b]Pressure Patterns[/b]

    Low pressure is mainly expected to sit over the UK for most of May although it doesn't look to be a strong feature as high pressure sits to our North West and in the Atlantic they are both looking very strong and they could pass over the UK from time to time.

    [attachment=211471:MayPattern.png]

    [b]Overall[/b]

    [attachment=211476:MaySummary.png]

    May 2014 will be mostly an average month in terms of temperatures and rainfall. The North West of Scotland and the South East of England are the places most likely to benefit from any high pressure systems they can expect above average temperatures during May. As for rainfall the Northern half of the UK is expected to be drier thanks to high pressure never being too far away from the North West of the UK. The Southern half stays on the average side of things for the rainfall. Low pressure will be over the UK most of the time giving us some unsettled weather but with two high pressure systems nearby they are likely to help with keeping things closer to average.
  21. Zenarcher
    [url="http://forum.netweather.tv/blog/227/entry-4480-first-look-at-autumn-2012-and-the-winter-ahead-part-3/"][b]View part 3 here[/b][/url]

    It's been 4 weeks since the last update and we have seen an interesting end to October a lot colder than expected.

    [b]Rainfall,[/b]

    November: Below average for Scotland and Ireland but average for England and Wales.

    December: Across Northern Scotland slightly above average and for the South West of England slightly below. Elsewhere looks average.

    January: Much drier for all of the UK.

    February: For Scotland below average, Ireland and Wales average and very wet for England.

    March: All parts of the UK either below or average apart from all of England staying very wet.

    [b]Temperature,[/b]

    November: About 1c to 2c colder than normal for both England and Scotland. Average for Ireland and Wales.

    December: Average temperatures for all of the UK but maybe slightly mild at times in the North.

    January: Similar to November close to average temperatures but at times dropping about 1c below average for anywhere.

    February: Very cold for all of the UK down 2c below average for most places.

    March: Another month looking cold for all of the UK about 1c cooler.

    [b]Air Pressure Anomaly,[/b]

    November: High pressure over Greenland and Iceland looks like a blocked weather pattern for this month.

    December: High pressure sits out in the Atlantic still but this time it is not a blocked pattern so at the moment a fairly average month.

    January: High pressure sits to the North of the UK so the blocked pattern looks to return.

    February: Low pressure sits over all of Europe but very high pressure sticks around Greenland and Iceland again.

    March: Low pressure to the South West of the UK while high pressure stays to the North.

    This is based on the current long range forecast by the CFS weather model. Another update will be done at the end of November.
  22. Zenarcher

    December 2014 Forecast

    By Zenarcher,

    I released my winter forecast last week which can be viewed here [url="https://forum.netweather.tv/blog/227/entry-4843-winter-2014-2015-forecast-december-to-march/"]https://forum.netweather.tv/blog/227/entry-4843-winter-2014-2015-forecast-december-to-march/[/url] I will still do monthly forecast updates so here is December.

    [b]Rainfall[/b] - Western Ireland and the North West of the UK could see rainfall being above average while the rest of the UK remains average.

    [attachment=231116:decemberrain.png]

    [b]Temperature[/b] - It looks like Southern England around the coasts and North West England and most of Scotland will see temperatures being slightly above average while the rest of the UK stays average.

    [attachment=231115:decembertemp.png]
    [b]Pressure Patterns[/b][color=rgb(40,40,40)][font=helvetica][font=helvetica] - Like during November high pressure is still expected to sit to our East but we will also see high pressure at the other side of the Atlantic while in the middle to the South East of Greenland low pressure is mainly placed.[/font][/font][/color]

    [attachment=231119:decemberpressure.png]

    [b]Summary[/b][color=rgb(40,40,40)][font=helvetica][font=helvetica] - [/font][/font][/color]Like I said in my winter forecast I still expect December to be mostly unsettled with average rainfall totals for most places but across the West and North could see some heavy rainfall at some point. Temperatures across Southern England and the North West are expected to be above average while the rest of the UK remains average. I'm still expecting a change towards the very end of December to colder weather just before we head into January.

    [attachment=231120:decembersummary.png]

    [color=rgb(40,40,40)][font=helvetica]TLDR - Wet in the North West average elsewhere. Mostly average temperatures the South of England and North West could see above average. Cold weather still expected to arrive at the end of December.[/font][/color]
  23. Zenarcher
    [size=5][b]March 2014 - [/b][size=4]Based on long range forecasts and the climate simulator.[/size][/size]

    [b]Rainfall[/b]

    After the wettest winter since records began there are signs of above average rainfall continuing into March especially for the West.

    [attachment=208606:MarchRain.png]

    Eastern parts are likely to see average rainfall amounts.

    [b]Temperature[/b]

    The South East of England is likely to see 1°C or maybe even 1.5°C above average temperatures as the rest of the UK stays on the average side. There are no signs
    of any colder than normal temperatures for March.

    [attachment=208607:MarchTemp.png]

    [b]Pressure Patterns[/b]

    Low pressure is expected to remain the main feature during March. High pressure may make a regular appearence in the Atlantic but there are no signs of it being strong enough to block off the Atlantic. However the high pressure over Scandinavia is looking very strong and I expect it at times to give Eastern parts of the country some settled drier weather with the slightly above average temperatures as well.

    [attachment=208608:Pressurepattern.png]

    [b]Overall[/b]

    [attachment=208609:MarchOverall.png]

    The image above shows a similar pattern we have seen this winter with low pressure mainly been driven in from the Atlantic giving unsettled weather to the West and above average rainfall. The East can expect something different with the rainfall being average and above average temperatures thanks to high pressure coming in from the East from time to time.
  24. Zenarcher
    [color=rgb(40,40,40)][font=helvetica][font=helvetica][size=5][b]June 2014 -[/b][/size][/font][/font][/color][color=rgb(40,40,40)][font=helvetica][font=helvetica] [/font][/font][/color][color=rgb(40,40,40)][font=helvetica][font=helvetica]Based on computer generated long range forecasts and the climate simulator that takes the current climate conditions and simulates ahead of time for a forecast prediction.[/font][/font][/color]

    [b][color=rgb(40,40,40)][font=helvetica][font=helvetica]Rainfall[/font][/font][/color][/b]

    [color=rgb(40,40,40)][font=helvetica][font=helvetica]Western parts of the UK look to have below average rainfall during June while the Southern and Eastern parts will be on the average side. Overall it looks to be a drier month for most of the UK.[/font][/font][/color]

    [attachment=214448:JuneRain.png]

    [b]Temperature[/b]

    The North West of Scotland and the South East of England could see temperatures being slightly warmer while the rest of the UK is expected to stay average. Overall all of the UK will see close to average temperatures but the North West and South East have a greater chance of seeing warmer temperatures than anywhere else.

    [attachment=214449:JuneTemp.png]

    [b]Pressure Patterns[/b]

    High pressure is likely to mainly be situated in the Atlantic and to our North East but low pressure is likely to be a strong feature across Europe and over Greenland.

    [attachment=214450:JunePressure.png]

    [b]Overall[/b]

    With high pressure staying in the Atlantic and to the North East of the UK the West and North can expect below average rainfall while low pressure sits across Europe this will make Southern parts of the country slightly wetter than the rest but overall it should still be near average. As for temperatures all of the UK can expect average temperatures but the North West of Scotland and the South East of England are the two main areas where temperatures may be warmer. Settled weather is likely to be common with high pressure never far away from the UK, the West and North are likely to benefit from them the most while the South may see some unsettled short spells with low pressure coming in from Europe. June looks to be an average month for most and slightly drier in some parts.

    [attachment=214451:JuneSummary.png]
  25. Zenarcher
    [b]July 2014[/b] - Based on computer generated long range forecasts and the climate simulator that takes the current climate conditions and simulates ahead of time for a forecast prediction.

    [b]Rainfall[/b]

    Southern parts of Ireland and the South West of England are the two area's where above average rainfall can be expected. Elsewhere can expect average rainfall although there are some hints that the Midlands may see some spells of wet weather and the South West of Scotland some dry spells.

    [attachment=217439:julyrain.png]

    [b]Temperature[/b]

    Most of the month is looking average for all of the UK with a chance of some short hot spells. If we do get any hot spells then the West would likely benefit from them the most.

    [attachment=217440:julytemp.png]

    [b]Pressure Patterns[/b]

    High pressure will sit in the Atlantic and help block most low pressure systems coming in from the West. However low pressure is mainly situated over Europe and the UK that could bring some unsettled weather from there.

    [attachment=217443:julyprep.png]

    [b]Overall[/b]

    July 2014 will be mainly a average month for temperatures and rainfall. Southern Ireland, the Midlands and the SW of England can expect above average rainfall though because of the low pressure mainly situated in that area. With high pressure in the Atlantic Western parts of the UK will benefit from this from time to time where above average temperatures will be seen and drier spells as well. July looks to have a similar pattern of weather that we have seen in June I expect July to continue it.

    [attachment=217445:julysum.png]
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