Downburst

Just read of one farmer who grows spring greens of various types. He has 100 Bulgarians arriving next week to pick the first crop as normal for this time of year. Anyway, the problem is the plants were never even planted yet never mind ready to start picking. Other facts and figures on tillage status in Ireland for barley oats and wheat, beans etc are off the scale bad. It is estimated two full weeks of dry weather is needed and another plough, and that isn't going to happen in time. Will be an odd year this year for sure.

AndyTee Well my nearest official station Dublin Airport is 106mm to March 26 which equals the March (54) and April (52) combined total at about 106 rounded. So wet it is and the month is not over. This time two weeks I will be in sunnier climes thank the maker, otherwise I think I might go raving mad.

As a person who supports all efforts to understand and take necessary action on identifiable targets I am beginning to get a little irritated by some journalists using terms such as "Climate Crisis" etc. Or sometimes now just "climate", e.g. the minister has to fight housing and with respect to climate etc. There is a very strong looking down the nose element to some journalists when writing about the plebs that are causing them lack of sleep as they worry in London about farmers or the great unwashed. I hope this stops as it's coutner productive and a political response will arise.

richie3846 They can't get the cattle out, perhaps some calves or one year olds in some locations where ground won't be damaged, so have to use what's left of last years silage or buy some. Then think of last years mid to late summer wet weather. They can't spread slurry on this years first cut or apply fertilizer yet. There are a lot of issues, but in general sileage will be cut later that's for sure. I think these are the ongoing trials and tribulations of farming though, the weather on top of everything else.

I think the weather has gone as mad as the world. My nearest station and it's grim in my view anyway. Wet Wet Wet, and I thought they were just a harmless band, no idea they were forecasting the future at all.

Ah yes, April is a flip a coin forecast for regimes. Sorry to say this but looking at the ECM monthly 500 charts it does seem to indicate similar to March in terms of rain. We shall see, a good week or 5 days somewhere in there surely.

raz.org.rain Irish Trees and Shrubs - Strawberry Tree (irelandseye.com)https://www.irelandseye.com/aarticles/travel/nature/trees/strawberry_tree/strawberry_tree.htm#:~:text=Caithne The strawberry tree is a large shrub,Irish stronghold is around Killarney in County Kerry. WIKI "It is interesting that it is relic in Ireland in Ireland of when the north atlantic was "warmer" than now, Its disjunct distribution, with an isolated relict population in southwestern and northwestern Ireland, notably in Killarney and around Lough Gill in County Sligo, which is its most northerly stand in the world, is a remnant of former broader distribution during the milder climate of the Atlantic period, the warmest and moistest Blytt–Sernander period, when the climate was generally warmer than today."

Well I booked a week away in the "sun" in April yesterday with about 30 seconds of thought. One other thing I did last year was add gravel paths to the garden so I can walk about and get out nearly anytime, avoiding wet grass. I'm just about able to cope knowing that it won't be long until proper spring days and or my 1 week away, until then stove lit to cheer up the evenings. But March 2013 thought was lesson enough to have steel in my soul for it being a tough month in any year, so at least it's not as bad as that so far. Also taking the vitamin D and K supplement, so may people are on very low levels by this time of the season.

It's quite in here. Models including the long range seem to suggest a slow burner spring, with high to the north and low to the south, good chance of a slightly wetter start to spring in the south, but perhaps just average and maybe again slightly + average temps. I'm no fan of easterly or brisk southerly winds in Spring if they hang on for weeks at end, but this picture suggests they will be part of the experience a lot. The ECM monthly long range shows late spring early summer high to the east of England, again with easterlies. It's all easterlies. The muti model long range is out and that looks very average out to June, with May 0.5 to 1.0 + temp anomaly, but what's new about that. https://climate.copernicus.eu/charts/packages/c3s_seasonal/

Great read. One point I'd like people to consider. The working classes and ever increasing proportion of middle classes are experiencing ever growing disparity in share of wealth. It is true that the rich get richer and the poor poorer, now more than ever. There are many reasons for this, but it's a fact. With respect to solutions to Climate change, for someone like me that owns and house, has lived half a century and is doing very well thank you, well buying into the so called solutions to climate change is a breeze. To a lot of struggling people the notion on top of what they see as a struggling future, to add complexity in the form of electric cars (expense), increased carbon taxes and other uncertainties to their struggle causes resentment. I think the media ignores this aspect and Greta Thornburg might appeal to the chattering classes in suburban London, but not to so many people. So this drives some negative responses and in fairness if one was to understand the climate one would need a scientific background, the internet doesn't ask for peoples expertise on a subject when it takes in someone's opinion

danm I've read it twice and all I can say as it reaffirms my belief on the modern world. This is the science correspondent, no link to a paper and this bit "The powerful jet stream is a major influence on how weather systems move over Europe. When it's "kinked" the result is usually high pressure and hot air from southern Europe and Africa sitting over the UK." So there we have it Kink in Jetstream (no idea what ice melt conditions are needed for this) and the UK gets hot air and this is predictable the winter before.

I'd be a little worried about any high moving to Greenland as March progresses, I don't want to see that one bit as it can often follow with a 3 week coolish, but more importantly wet period with lows into general France area and fronts sitting over somewhere in the B Isles with low after low steering in behind. Last March for one and plenty of other recent Springs. Such an odd month March, who knows. Starting off wintry anyway, maybe the old adage will be true.

Still not explanation as to why this absolutely crazy global sea temp anomaly is ongoing. I'm keeping an eye out for explanations and from what I can see there is no solid explanation, a "freak" event. https://www.pbs.org/newshour/science/sea-ice-lows-extreme-ocean-heat-of-2023-offers-glimpse-of-future-warming-study-says

Ah yes, good news on the possible more settled and sometimes maybe even dry March becoming more evident. Like to see those +NAO kept nice and low. Who will get the first touch of a sun burn? won't be long.

In Absence of True Seasons Put a jumper on, if they are going blue it's too cold.

Snowyowl9 Just wondering if you can explain that. Is that a forecast or the average for somewhere or what you are expecting?

Vey nice here today, actually 20c now in living room with no heating on today. Pretty decent couple of days before temps go back to more normal, but the sun is getting higher every day and this time two weeks spring will have sprung.

baddie I'm not considering the SSW even one bit myself, as I believe the interest in that is related to snow, so for those that want that only discussed on here apologies. But as to the actual weather over the period, it's probable first half of March will not be settled overall in my view. The ECM weeklies will be dismissed of course in favour of SSW not being computed, and I'm not sure if that is the case. But they are not pointing to a major shift of an upper level trough in this region, with the general global view looking possibly stuck in my view, long wave pattern. Time for change in the forecast for sure. Perhaps mid month might be sudden catastrophic high spell SCH The ECMWF weeklies The precipitation is looking wetter than average. We shall see though.

baddie March 2013, what a terrible month that was. Dublin airport mean an insane 3.1c for the month. April and May were cold too. Vile month that and one I am scared of seeing again.

Lowest temp I can see for me in the next 10 days is 4 degrees at the very end of the run at 06:00 am. Yet we can't discuss this on the mad thread. Has to be teleconnections and snow for the next month or so before that thread returns to discuss the long range weather based on the models with no bias.

East Lancs Rain Good point. Cork airport though is a little different to Cork city as its 500 ft above sea level. But I am from the east coast and even in that short distance there is a noticeable difference in climate. There is a guy on here from Cork chasing snow, I have no idea why he bothers. I have been in Cork in the winter and spring and it really feels noticeably humid and when the sun comes out in late Spring or Summer it can even feel tropical, if that doesn't sound far fetched. Fact is precipitation total has increased 7% and is growing over the last two climate periods, with temps also increasing. No getting away from it.

Jayces It' a great point. My immediate thought is that the data collected is just that data, so a number from an observation lets say of temperature is a given, despite the fact that it's lets say 1.5 C high compared to climate. So I don't believe the medium range models are struggling with background changes. However the models are not perfect and there are many built in difficulties https://confluence.ecmwf.int/display/FCST/Known+IFS+forecasting+issues and perhaps for instance underestimating urban heat etc as one example will be exasperated.

Penrith Snow I don't think a sample of two countries show the UK is leading in warming over anywhere else. Perhaps you mean in the last 12 months or so over Finland?

Not sure if anyone posted. But the long range ECM is suggesting probability exceeding the mean temp on the high side, no surprise there given what is ongoing. What about precipitation? Not a bad signal there. Lets hope for a good one anyway, even come hail or shine we will soldier on.

Paul White. The corydalines will be moaning