Downburst

Without that low nearing here, too far south, as the ICON shows it's drier than a witches.. to the end of the run, post that showers likely incoming. show depth chart to end of run from today. So need a source of precipitation.

It's a pretty reasonable possibility with this undercut low, it's certainly happened before and looks a good one to watch.

Yep, the black ice this morning putting the bins out was lethal, a drizzly rain on the frozen footpath, never known it to be as bad or as hard to spot. No salt stored, should have just picked some up when I saw it, but as soon as I buy something like that the weather turns.

Well it is cold, that is for sure, next 4 days about 2 to 4 degrees colder than normal, a brief return to normal and then possible return to 2 to 4 below normal based on the mean ECM run. The MAD thread is more about getting excited about each run then the output really. If I was to use the 00 CM run mean in there I'd be run out of it as that is the previous run, it's all about the latest run and assuming that the +7 or 8 day chart is now correct. Just fun for folks really. I can't be inputting in there as I've nothing to say that hasn't been said at this time of year a typical chart for this week

I’m labouring the point, but a recent case. I posted the 46 day ECMWF from Reading. It gets overwhelming derision in favour of the 4 day GFS operational as it’s not part of the immediate output, that’s understandable just for the excitement of rolling the dice, I’m sympathetic to that. But as the day went on, and I’m not either capable nor bothered to post this, but over the last week I realised that end of January was shaping up, or is I should say, to high chance of northern blocking. When I see the 46 day chart and some met office muttering I share a quick post with the mod thread, near zero interest. I have both a maths and computer science degree and I’ve enough time after working 28 years in tech to enjoy myself in my own interests, but forgive that aspect. Then Tamara posts a little obliquely what I had considered and it’s hats off. Then i see the same experts, not Tamara, consider sunspots as the new QBO or MJO mystery, sunspots I’ve studied as I was initially intrigued 15 years ago and in order to not be foolish with my peers I soon found out they have less than 1% significance to weather. Newton the greatest physicist I’m my view pondered them. It was at this moment and some of the experts comments on this that I have decided after 15 years of fun for me on this site I’m leaving it. I can’t be bothered not learning and reading txt speak from nrtwestsnow or whatever, and since the introduction of likes and promotion of toxic egos by the owners it’s not for me. I have access to the charts etc. so thanks to eye from the skys, born from the void, John Holmes’s and many others from the good times on here. Don’t accept toxicity and don’t allow the mods delete your valid posts. They are making a living from you being here, rebel always folks if you want to survive.

Well accurate solar spot info goes back to 1650 or so doesn't it? Very easy to do reanalysis I would expect. I'll keep an open mind of course, but hope any thoughts on this are based on scientific principles and not simply because of the immense magnitude of the sun, which can lead people into correlations that don't necessarily exist.

There's a sense of a little bullying (perhaps too strong a word) from at least one of the long term posters to anyone new that raises their head. I've been on here 15 years and have seen some great posters disappear and the same old one have a right go at anyone who might know their stuff. Pity really, not much the mods can do I suppose at the popular time of the year. The internet allows people who aren't necessarily popular in "real" life to find a niche where they are and they'll find a way to keep that popularity. In the long run the site becomes destructive, so expert moderation is called for to allow change in thoughts and some learning.

No, not this type and size. The 2021 eruption for all the news it got covered 4.8 square KM with fresh lava for instance and like this one was not an eruption into the atmosphere. Of course the modern internet press system will have us in lockdown and scared to fly, but we know that's how it works nowadays. Some day though, you never know.

Hopefully this post isn't deleted .There is good evidence the 2nd half of January being conductive to a chance of Greenland heights. It's a good sign and isn't heavily zonal. And unlike the current position, the lead up to which showed high pressure anomalies too far south all along, which we ended up with, the weight of output is showing more northerly blocking. Might get something very wintry mid to end of January. Thats a 75% against +NAO mid to end January in my book.

Reading the Model thread and I can't understand why my post was "hidden" earlier (that means deleted) when I posted on the long term chances of a backloaded winter Some of the superfluous one liners etc about Christmas dinners and all the rest on there, when some take their time to research and the mods just delete? But don't delete some posts that are very far removed from model discussion. I wonder why?

It says a lot about the winter weather we get now that looking 10 days ahead the only chance of as much a tiny frost is at Day 10, happens to be Christmas morning mind you, for about 3 hours before warming up as the day goes on. Won't happen exactly like this of course, but the yearly temperature record is going to be broken for sure now, can't see it being missed, that will be a mean annual of over 11 Celsius for Ireland.

It’s spring like in the garden this morning. Grass looks remarkably green and happy for time of year, everything including the grass is dry, although cloudy it’s bright with a southerly wind. Just a light pullover needed. Should really take advantage of it but I’m feeling lazy and in that weird indecision mode us humans get into

Yes, that’s interesting for sure. Not the normal setup that’s for sure, most winters let’s not forget it’s all blue. To your earlier point on the 46 day and into January. There’s a very high chance as winter progresses for very cold outbreaks from north and north east and there is ever increasing building block evidence for that.

They can concentrate in the highlands too you know

The air is coming from the east in a slack flow at your approx location. You don’t need -5 850s for a frost, far from it. In fact you can have +5 and above 850 and an ice day. BTW, any chance of consolidating the odd post to make this shared thread readable for everyone, I enjoy all your posts, but numerous one liners is hard work when catching up etc.

The ECMWF pools from 35 member countries that have their own funding and met organisations and budgets, do we add those up, including the UK, France and Germany etc, in addition to the funding ringfenced for ECMWF. I poorly expressed it perhaps. To compare the budgets doesn't consider the function of course and I have no idea of BOM other than the recent amplification. With regards to the MJO I'll stick to the ECMWF.

I'm sorry Catacol, but given the unquestionable professionalism and funding to hire the best talent and resources in capital, whatever that is the ECMWF have. I am very sceptical of any notion of inherent inaccuracies in their models for something as fundamental as MJO. Obviously I take your bias correction point in hand, and they may well apply that in given cases, but I assume they do that highly accurately. In any case I was asking sensible questions of the disparity with the MJO forecasts last week and was told, the Australians live in the region and their model will be more accurate. A strange coupling of location and mathematics I hadn't been of aware of previously. I think the bias is very much in seeing the model we want to be true myself.

He said the 26th don't worry it will be mild tomorrow.

It's quite obviously a zonal setup for now. Maybe the week between the big day and New years some transitory cold from the north, especially with height and the normal locations, but that's more than 10 days away. I am still looking at the seasonals and I am confident we will get at least one notable cold outbreak Jan to March period, more especially February or March. Better add a chart for March from the C3S (this is a professional body) (note be prepared to be attacked by the experts here, but here we go, picking March shamelessly as it's the best signal, but there is good reason given the background setup. A chart like this gives a good chance of a 2018 type event

Helping out by orientating the chart. It's a strong anomaly, but it is not northerly enough blocking really. Might be a little drier than average though if this came off. Not sure if it's winter wonderland in my view of it anyway.

I was away in the west of Ireland for the weekend on the lash and just back to 21st century and computers, and just logged in for a proper look at the models and the chat here and can’t make head nor tail of it. No retrogression of the high is what I read. We’ll have no fear, if it’s there at all it’s possible that it will pounce, just needs coaxing and a small word in the ear. It’s better to have the chance to have this, it’s happened before, it’ll happen again,

Is the Modoki El Niño somehow interfering with the normal MJO cycle and suppressing as it passes east and into or near the warmth? Just wondering if this is a factor.

Full of Northerly promise. I wonder if a low could get cut off in the med and the high then move to Scandi. Even at the end it is 1040mb and has some stopping power, even if not moving north enough. Perhaps Scandi is the ultimate destination.

Corresponding temps around that time for this run, a lot of people to finish work that day, if it happens nice and seasonal. 850 anomalies, not temps, tell a good story. Snow showers?

RE the Met Office and the signal end of month they refer to. I wonder if it is just the MJO signal (beating the hell out of that drum I know) is the duty person simply expecting -NAO chances and alluding to them, and no other data other than that seasonal take. From their own site they say How does the MJO impact UK weather? When the MJO is in its active phase over Indonesia and the West Pacific, it tends to drive a negative North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) 2 to 3 weeks later. A positive NAO index tends to be preceded by phase 3 and 4 of the MJO, which brings milder and wetter weather across the UK. A negative NAO index tends to be preceded by phase 6 and 7, which influences a ‘blocked’ weather pattern and is often associated with colder and drier weather across the UK. The timescale of the MJO having an influence on North Atlantic weather regimes is usually 10 to 12 days. To help everyone, this is the negative NAO setup to expect. Here is the current reading, the forecast is positive, but the impact of Phase 7 to 8 won't be felt until end of month, i.e. about 10 days after 15 to 20 December, if at all of course