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Model Output Discussion 01/09/17
ANYWEATHER replied to phil nw.'s topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Hi There ,a warm welcome from all of here on Netweather....Enjoy! -
Model Output Discussion 01/09/17
ANYWEATHER replied to phil nw.'s topic in Forecast Model Discussion
No charts to post at present , but the synoptic charts are really great for a big cool down over the UK and indeed for most of Europe. A few frosts even for southern Britain before Halloween makes it the first time in a few years that we have some really seasonal weather .! No point quibbling about record cold at this time of year.......I remember October 1997 picticularly the end of the month with record breaking cold frosts then November came along with some sickly mild weather..,..We should be happy with the model output....... -
Model Output Discussion 01/09/17
ANYWEATHER replied to phil nw.'s topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Hello Folks , Fancy sitting in the Rollercoaster chair Ecm shows a colder weekend , gfs shows a milder weekend , gfs shows unseasonably cold weather in its later frames , ecm shows something a lot tamer....Gts shows a really goolish Halloween . becoming very cold , perhaps snow for some ,really makes a change from recent years;;; Follow the witch.... -
Model Output Discussion 01/09/17
ANYWEATHER replied to phil nw.'s topic in Forecast Model Discussion
And the gfs and ecm are on some agreement of a cold spell next weekend , Take the Seaweed out and put it outside and we may see what is going to happen... -
Model Output Discussion 01/09/17
ANYWEATHER replied to phil nw.'s topic in Forecast Model Discussion
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Model Output Discussion 01/09/17
ANYWEATHER replied to phil nw.'s topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Yes, but you are basing your view on GFS only......... -
Model Output Discussion 01/09/17
ANYWEATHER replied to phil nw.'s topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Both ECM and GFS show unsettled weather until towards the eight day period when the brakes start to hold up on the jet stream.....a lot of weather to come and change before we get to the ten day period... -
Model Output Discussion 01/09/17
ANYWEATHER replied to phil nw.'s topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Evening All... After yesterday interesting weather , a little quieter for a while , but things get rather stormy by early weekend for southern Britain....What is quite unusual is that the strongest gusts of wind are reserved for mainly England and overland with gusts up to and over 70 mph. Looks like the Midlands could bear the brunt of this storm, ok a long way off still ,but one to watch..... -
Model Output Discussion 01/09/17
ANYWEATHER replied to phil nw.'s topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Evening All , After todays spectacular display of mother nature ,that's the amazing red sun and the spooky red hue during day time today here in Worcestershire much better than any eclipse and something Ive never seen before , Ophilia is now dying very quickly but still a big feature across the uk, a little bit quieter in the next few days and then the Attention turns to the weekend ,looks rather stormy by Saturday fuelled by a very strong jet stream.... -
Hurricane Ophelia
ANYWEATHER replied to Jo Farrow's topic in Hurricanes, Cyclones and Extreme weather worldwide
Once this storm hits the cold waters of the Irish Sea it will die very quickly , but will pack a very big punch to Ireland and western Britain... -
Model Output Discussion 01/09/17
ANYWEATHER replied to phil nw.'s topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Hello Folks , After the Drama of the last few days ,a Pond of calmer waters descends over the uk ,then the jet stream fires up towards the end of the week and brings us potentially severe gales one to watch and welcome to October perhaps the most volatile October for a good few years ,just like Octobers should be -
Hurricane Ophelia
ANYWEATHER replied to Jo Farrow's topic in Hurricanes, Cyclones and Extreme weather worldwide
Well I said that this morning -
Hurricane Ophelia
ANYWEATHER replied to Jo Farrow's topic in Hurricanes, Cyclones and Extreme weather worldwide
Dear Oh Dear, to blame everthing on So Called "Climate Change" is completely absurd. These storms have popped up over generations some of them never recorded some have been. Now what has changed is the rapid growth in human population , and with so many more people living ,breathing ,driving there cars ,trucks around , modern technology IE Tele, Internet and Mobile phones, has given us a "Nanny State" whilst previous generations have endured and survived such storms -
Hurricane Ophelia
ANYWEATHER replied to Jo Farrow's topic in Hurricanes, Cyclones and Extreme weather worldwide
I would imagine a huge sea swell tomorrow especially on the Irish sea coasts 30 to 50 foot waves possible combined with 100 mph gusts of wind for a time ,so ferry services will be cancelled..... -
Hurricane Ophelia
ANYWEATHER replied to Jo Farrow's topic in Hurricanes, Cyclones and Extreme weather worldwide
Indeed history is a long blank white page generally speaking so it's wrong to conclude that this storm is new territory ,it's only common sense to believe that these sort of set ups have happened before long before anything was written down. -
Hurricane Ophelia
ANYWEATHER replied to Jo Farrow's topic in Hurricanes, Cyclones and Extreme weather worldwide
Well everything we are seeing today mirrors everything that's happened in the past with our weather there's nothing new under the sun except for demographics and an alarming population growth. Well of course that and modern communications -
Hurricane Ophelia
ANYWEATHER replied to Jo Farrow's topic in Hurricanes, Cyclones and Extreme weather worldwide
Morning, yes a potent impact on southern Ireland initially with gusts of 100 mph plus and South Wales around Swansea for instance of perhaps 70 to 80 mph although not unusual by any means for Wales at this time of year.... ukgust (1).webp ukgust.webp -
Model Output Discussion 01/09/17
ANYWEATHER replied to phil nw.'s topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Evening All ! A lot of uncertainity in the next few days regarding tropical storm ophillla . There is a big degree of uncertainty of the east/west movement of this Ireland perhaps having the most powerful influence of this but a little shift eastwards then Wales and the far West of the uk will feel the storm. After that once the muddy waters clear . the clear cold air takes hold of the the uk it Will feel like Autumn..... -
Model Output Discussion 01/09/17
ANYWEATHER replied to phil nw.'s topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Hi it will happen sooner or later let's just get this tropical storm out of the way first -
Model Output Discussion 01/09/17
ANYWEATHER replied to phil nw.'s topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Hi, To be honest I don't see any record breaking temps from the gfs Perhaps Next Monday with the highest temps , this just goes to show how complicated this set up is ...Just watch this space.. -
Model Output Discussion 01/09/17
ANYWEATHER replied to phil nw.'s topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Evening All ! Im still excited about our forthcoming weather ,not just some high temps for this time of year but also a tropical storm to really complicate things. I Think we need a couple of more days at least to sort out the synoptics but this tropical storm needs to be watched as both ecm and gfs bring it in striking distance of the uk at T+144. There will be lots of changes during the next few days but perhaps this is the "Calm Before The Storm"! -
Model Output Discussion 01/09/17
ANYWEATHER replied to phil nw.'s topic in Forecast Model Discussion
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Model Output Discussion 01/09/17
ANYWEATHER replied to phil nw.'s topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Hello All! The Gfs and Ecm output is nothing more than the "WOW" Factor , with heat ,storms and cold. Lots to iron out , but after the short burst of heat , a wind storm, then turning cold , who could make this up ! -
Model Output Discussion 01/09/17
ANYWEATHER replied to phil nw.'s topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Evening ! There is a weather term called in Meteoroligy called Shannon Entropy . The Low Shannon entropy means the forecast in the ten day period is more certain . the High Shannon Entropy" which we are in now" means the outlook in the next ten day period is very uncertain...hope this helps..! -
Model Output Discussion 01/09/17
ANYWEATHER replied to phil nw.'s topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Evening All and the charts that's the gfs and ecm have watered down the late heat for late week into the weekend by a vast degree. Probably reaching 21c/70f somewhere across south east Britain, as things stand now . later in the ten day period both models show a volatile outlook.....