BornFromTheVoid

Projections and probabilities for February At the moment, we have 86.3% chance of finishing between 2.5C and 6.5C before corrections. The chances of finishing: Close to average (3.9 to 4.9C) is 27% Above average (>4.9C) is 36% Below average (<3.9C) is 37%

It's the change in ice mass from all sources, between 1994 and 2017, divided by the number of years. So the cumulative net change. Some years sea ice will experience a net increase, some years a decrease. But overall, all sources have lost mass over that time, aside from Antarctic sea ice which has largely maintained its mass The animation shows it well

The final CET came in at 3.1C so, 1.3C below the 81-10 average, 0.7C below the 20th century average and 0.1C above the 19th century average. Compared with the 81-10 values, there were 9 days above and 22 days below average. One day reached the top 10 warmest (20th), but no days were in the bottom 10 coldest.

2.7C and 60mm, thanks.

Yep, was posted in the new research section a few days back. The values comes from all forms of ice, so ice sheets, glaciers, sea ice, etc. Comes from a recently published study out of (primarily) Leeds uni.

Another look at the contrasting trends in the Sea of Okhotsk (right on animation, climbed to 10th largest extent up to Jan 28th) vs Baffin Bay and the Gulf of St. Lawrence (left on animation, down to 2nd and lowest on record, respectively).

Extent in the Sea of Okhotsk has climbed to the 10th highest position for January 27th. Conversely, Baffin Bay and the Gulf of St Lawrence on the opposite side of the Arctic are 2nd lowest and lowest on record respectively. The effect of the -ve NAO on ice near eastern Canada is quite clear (red line is the 81-10 average)

Extent in the Sea of Okhotsk has climbed to the 10th highest position for January 27th. Conversely, Baffin Bay and the Gulf of St Lawrence on the opposite side of the Arctic are 2nd lowest and lowest on record respectively. The effects of the -ve NOA are quite clear on the ice cover around Eastern Canada (red is 81-10 average).

You're correct, I misread the data. Should have been 2015/16.

In terms of mild days, using a daily mean >8C during DJF for this, the graph below shows the long term trends. So far this winter, just 4 such days. The 91-20 average is 13. The lowest values during that time were for 2009/2010 and 1990/1991, just 3 such days. The highest number was 31, in 2014/15

With the provisional data so far and using the GFS 12z for the final 5 days produces a finish of 3.4C exactly. So I'd guess 3.2 to 3.6C before corrections as almost certain. No point in posting the projections as the 5 day GFS takes us to the 31st

Extent in the peripheral Arctic seas has slowed recently, dropping from 13ᵗʰ down to 6ᵗʰ lowest on record. While ice cover in the Sea of Okhotsk remains extensive (15ᵗʰ highest) Baffin Bay is down to second lowest and the Gulf of St. Lawrence is now lowest on record.

Here's a video version so you can pause. Other than that, I can provide any of the comparison images/years that you want. AnimationVid.mp4

A comparison of sea ice extent for January 24th across different years. The Canadian Atlantic and Bering Sea appear furthest behind, while the Sea of Okhotsk is doing quite well.

A comparison of sea ice extent for January 24th across different years. The Canadian Atlantic and Bering Sea appear furthest behind, while the Sea of Okhotsk is doing quite well.

Review article: Earth's ice imbalance TC.COPERNICUS.ORG <p><strong class="journal-contentHeaderColor">Abstract.</strong> We combine satellite observations and numerical models to show that Earth lost 28 trillion tonnes of ice between 1994 and... Abstract We combine satellite observations and numerical models to show that Earth lost 28 trillion tonnes of ice between 1994 and 2017. Arctic sea ice (7.6 trillion tonnes), Antarctic ice shelves (6.5 trillion tonnes), mountain glaciers (6.1 trillion tonnes), the Greenland ice sheet (3.8 trillion tonnes), the Antarctic ice sheet (2.5 trillion tonnes), and Southern Ocean sea ice (0.9 trillion tonnes) have all decreased in mass. Just over half (58 %) of the ice loss was from the Northern Hemisphere, and the remainder (42 %) was from the Southern Hemisphere. The rate of ice loss has risen by 57 % since the 1990s – from 0.8 to 1.2 trillion tonnes per year – owing to increased losses from mountain glaciers, Antarctica, Greenland and from Antarctic ice shelves. During the same period, the loss of grounded ice from the Antarctic and Greenland ice sheets and mountain glaciers raised the global sea level by 34.6 ± 3.1 mm. The majority of all ice losses were driven by atmospheric melting (68 % from Arctic sea ice, mountain glaciers ice shelf calving and ice sheet surface mass balance), with the remaining losses (32 % from ice sheet discharge and ice shelf thinning) being driven by oceanic melting. Altogether, these elements of the cryosphere have taken up 3.2 % of the global energy imbalance. Media article on the paper Global ice loss accelerating at record rate, study finds | Environment | The Guardian WWW.THEGUARDIAN.COM Rate of loss now in line with worst-case scenarios of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change And an animation showing where the ice loss comes from and variations over time.

This weeks slow sea ice animation

Latest projections and probabilities At the moment, we have 91.2% chance of finishing between 2.5C and 4.0C before corrections. The chances of finishing: Close to average (3.9 to 4.9C) is to 4.8% (2 days ago was 5.2%) Above average (>4.9C) remains at 0.0% (2 days ago was 0.0%) Below average (<3.9C) is to 95.2% (2 days ago was 94.8%) Coldest outcome is 2.3C.

Latest projections and probabilities At the moment, we have 91.2% chance of finishing between 2.5C and 4.0C before corrections. The chances of finishing: Close to average (3.9 to 4.9C) is to 5.2% (2 days ago was 29.8%) Above average (>4.9C) remains at 0.0% (2 days ago was 0.0%) Below average (<3.9C) is to 94.8% (2 days ago was 70.2%) Coldest outcome is 1.5C.

This was close to midnight. Mostly grey slush this morning, so must have turned back to rain at some point. 20210120_230436.mp4

Sea ice volume remains 2nd lowest on record, 980 km3 above 2017 Regionally, 2021 is just as bad as 2017 in the central Arctic, but pulls ahead in the other Arctic Ocean seas (Laptev through to Beaufort) and the Sea of Okhotsk.

Sea ice volume remains 2nd lowest on record, 980 km3 above 2017 Regionally, 2021 is just as bad as 2017 in the central Arctic, but pulls ahead in the other Arctic Ocean seas (Laptev through to Beaufort) and the Sea of Okhotsk.

Latest projections and probabilities At the moment, we have 98.8% chance of finishing between 1.5C and 4.5C. The chances of finishing: Close to average (3.9 to 4.9C) is to 29.8% (2 days ago was 32.3%) Above average (>4.9C) is to 0.0% (2 days ago was 0.4%) Below average (<3.9C) is to 70.2% (2 days ago was 67.3%) Coldest outcome is above 1C.

I put together a thread looking at the recent big increases in sea ice extent and some of the implications. Some might find it interesting. Some might hate it. Here it is regardless

Slow sea ice animation for the last week. Subtle changes overall