BornFromTheVoid

Use the link that was under the image. It says archive in the url, but it provides the latest temps and updated, but only as a single image. You'll notice it says updated Jan 5, so it's definitely up to date. http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/plots/meanTarchive/meanT_2021.png

If you rick click on the image and open in a new tab, and change the 2020 in the url to 2021, you get this: http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/plots/meanTarchive/meanT_2021.png

Here's the January CET projection (with 5 day GFS forecast) and probability distribution At the moment, we have >80% chance of finishing between 2.0C and 5.0C The chances of finishing: Close to average (3.9 to 4.9C) is 20.6% Above average (>4.9C) is 4.8% Below average (<3.9C) is 74.6% The above are all before corrections.

Animation of the sea ice extent coverage change for the year. Split into the freeze up to the 11th smallest maximum, melt to the 2nd smallest minimum and freeze to end of year.

2020 extent overview gif, split into the freeze to max, melt to min and freeze to end of the year. Can't seem to upload the gif seperately, (might be too big) so here's the gif in a tweet.

About cm covering here in Spital Tongues. That's at least falling snow in 4 of the last 7 days for me, (including 3 in Ireland). Hopefully we can keep the ball rolling!

So 9 of the 10 warmest years have occurred since 1990. For this year: 31 days were in the top 10 warmest, 8 of which were daily records. 5 days were in the 10 coldest, but no daily cold records were set.

Wet snow falling again in south Tipp. Not sticking for now, but hopefully it gets a bit heavier.

Amazing moon halo last night (in south Tipp atm)

2.1C and 62mm, thanks

This is the MOD thread folks. Lets try not to derail things with arguments about climate change. If anyone wants to pursue that discussion then we can get a thread going in the climate area. Cheers!

Got some snow in south Tipp yesterday. Huge flakes and stuck a little bit eventually. Turned to rain during the night though, so all gone now.

Here are the latest projections. Estimate of the next 5 days from the GFS is 2.7C (values from 3 days ago in brackets). Warmest: 5.8C (6.3C) Coldest: 4.4C (4.5C) Top 10: 5.8C (6.1C) Bottom 10: 4.7C (4.7C) 81-10: 5.3C (5.6C) There is now a 31% chance of finishing close to average (between 4.1C and 5.1C), 0% chance of below average (< 4.1C) and a 69% chance of above average (> 5.1C). The focus has shifted a little, with 5.0C to 5.5C now the favoured provisional value with a 45.6% probability.

Here's the projected values, with the GFS 7 day forecast included. The values below in brackets are from yesterday, to show the change in projections. Estimate of the next 7 days from the GFS is 5.2C (8.0C from 21st to 23rd and 3.1C from 24th to 28th) Warmest: 6.3C (6.6C) Coldest: 4.5C (4.3C) Top 10: 6.1C (6.3C) Bottom 10: 4.7C (4.6C) 81-10: 5.6C (5.6C) There is now a 19% chance of finishing close to average (between 4.1C and 5.1C), 0% chance of below average (< 4.1C) and a 81% chance of above average (> 5.1C). 5.5-6.0C has the highest probability, shooting up to 44.8% today. Overall, there's a 74.2% chance of finishing between 5.0C and 6.0C.

Volume still comfortably second lowest on record. Most of the difference to 2016 comes from Hudson Bay, with the Arctic seas pretty close to lowest overall.

Volume still comfortably second lowest on record. Most of the difference to 2016 comes from Hudson Bay, with the Arctic seas pretty close overall

Here's the projected values, with the GFS 7 day forecast included. The values below in brackets are from yesterday, to show the change in projections. Warmest: 6.6C (6.9C) Coldest: 4.3C (4.1C) Top 10: 6.3C (6.5C) Bottom 10: 4.6C (4.5C) 81-10: 5.6C (5.7C) There is now a 21.8% chance of finishing close to average (between 4.1C and 5.1C), 0% chance of below average (< 4.1C) and a 78.2% chance of above average (> 5.1C). 5.5-6.0C has the highest probability, 37.9% today. Overall, there's a 84.7% chance of finishing between 5.0C and 6.5C.

With an increase of 805,000 km² in the last 6 days, extent has climbed from 2nd to 7th lowest on record. This is the highest position extent has occupied since the 28th of June.

With an increase of 805,000 km² in the last 6 days, extent has climbed from 2nd to 7th lowest on record. This is the highest position extent has occupied since the 28th of June.

Here's the projected values, with the GFS 7 day forecast included. The values below in brackets are from 2 days ago, to show the change in projections. Warmest: 6.9C (6.8C) Coldest: 4.1C (3.3C) Top 10: 6.5C (6.5C) Bottom 10: 4.5C (4.0C) 81-10: 5.7C (5.5C) There is now a 22.2% chance of finishing close to average (between 4.1C and 5.1C), 0.4% chance of below average (< 4.1C) and a 77.4% chance of above average (> 5.1C). 5.5-6.0C has the highest probability, 28.6% today. 6.0-6.5C is close now too, with 28%. Overall, there's a 79% chance of finishing between 5.0C and 6.5C.

Beautiful time-lapse

Here's the projected values, with the GFS 7 day forecast included. The values below in brackets are from 3 days ago, to show the change in projections. Warmest: 6.8C (7.2C) Coldest: 3.3C (2.3C) Top 10: 6.5C (6.6C) Bottom 10: 4.0C (3.4C) 81-10: 5.5C (5.3C) Big changes yet again. There is now a 32% chance of finishing close to average (between 4.1C and 5.1C), 6% chance of below average (< 4.1C) and a 62% chance of above average (> 5.1C). 5.5 - 6.0C has the highest probability at the moment , increasing from 24.2% 3 days ago to 31.9%.

The GISS page allows you to look at those latitude plots for different years Data.GISS: GISS Surface Temperature Analysis (v4): Global Maps DATA.GISS.NASA.GOV For the Arctic vs the rest of the world:

Just about to make landfall

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