BornFromTheVoid

As tempting as it may be, we need to keep politics out of the discussion here. They tend to result in bickering that quickly loses relevance to the thread topic, so there's a general ban on it across the site. Anyway, here's a side by side comparison of 2012 and 2020 for the first 25 days of October, where we've gone from 310,000 km2 more extent than 2012, to 1,504,000 km2 less than 2012.

According to the NSIDC extent, despite an increase of 145k on the 25th, the gap between 2020 and the next lowest year (2019) has grown. So 2020 is now lowest on record by 679k, or more than the land area of Norway and Finland combined.

A week of slow ice change, shown by a slow animation ADS/JAXA extent now lowest on record by 631k. If extent/area doesn't start increasing by well over 100k/day from now on, we'll be lowest on record by close to 1 million km2 early next week.

I would assume still, mainly because turbulence would imply some low pressure nearby and thus clouds, which could impede energy loss. It's a tricky one though, and matters how close the Atlantic water is to the surface, difference between the air, sea surface and sub-surface temperatures, etc. Anywho, here's the slow animation of the past week. ADS/JAXA extent is now lowest on record by 631k

The gap to other years continues to grow, lowest on record now by 526,000 km². 1,740,000 km² below the last 10 years average 3,431,000 km² below the 81-10 average 3,974,000 km² below the 1980s average If we don't see a huge increase in growth, well over 100k/day, soon, we will end up lowest on record by close to a million km² early next week.

Unfortunately, those DMI volume measures aren't considered reliable. One of the more obvious clues being that they have the minimum occurring in August, which tells you that something in their physics has gone awry. The latest PIOMAS has 2019 equal with 2012 up to October 15th (since then, extent and area has dropped to record low values though). SMOS satellite data also suggests that the ice is at record thin levels. And we should have cryosat estimates within a few weeks too. On top of that, we have the images from the N. Pole this year which showed the ice to be thin and scattered And this report from a new Russian Icebreaker, wishing to test itself against some thick sea ice Sorry if this comes across like a bombardment of counter info! It's just that from all reliable, standard measures and reports from people that actually went into the central Arctic, there doesn't appear to be any positives to pull from the current situation. The central ice might be better than 2016 though? it was in a terrible situation that year (but with much more volume and area/extent overall).

The sea ice is in a truly terrible state, and it's descent into record low territory is growing each day. No significant ice formation yet along the Russian coastline, something not seen previously and extra surprising considering those seas used to have ice throughout the summer in most years.

The NSIDC extent has set a new record for the largest -ve anomaly (relative to 81-10) for each of the last 6 days. We are currently: - lowest on record by 380,000 km² - below the 81-10 average by 3,309,000 km² - below the 80s average by 3,935,000 km²

Each of the last 5 days have set record large -ve anomalies for Arctic sea ice extent, relative to the 1981-2010 mean. The previous record had been 3.068 million km2 on October 8th, 2012. The last 5 days of this year have been (in millions of km2): -3.088 -3.128 -3.167 -3.209 -3.275 What we're seeing regarding Arctic sea ice at the moment is truly exceptional.

I put together a short thread on twitter, which I'll link to below. Basically, there was a paper published during the summer by Polyakov et al that built on previous studies and suggests that Atlantification of the Eurasian seas has increased in recent years. It has occurred because as sea ice is reduced wind and tidal movements are increasingly effective at allowing the warmer and saltier Atlantic waters to mix with the cooler, fresher surface water cap, creating a feedback that slows ice formation and accelerates melt. There is also the risk of a tipping point being reached, whereby the sea transitions to a new state (much like what happened to the Barents Sea) where sea ice formation is massively impeded, even in mid winter. The length of time that the Siberian seas have had open water this year, and the continuing open water state, may allow for an acceleration of the Atlantification process, especially if a few large winter storms get the chance to churn up the water. This increases the risk of pushing the Kara or Laptev seas beyond Polyakov's tipping point.

3rd slowest on record for October so far, behind 2019 and 2016 (according to NSIDC extent).

Latest 5 day slow animation. Beaufort is doing quite well, close to recent decadal averages. Everywhere else is really struggling to add new ice. This is reflected in the JAXA/ADS extent, now lowest on record by 276k.

Arctic sea ice coverage is back to record low values for all the main long term measures (both area and extent). Of particular note is the lack of new ice formation around the Siberian sea's, causing surface temperature records to be smashed, but also providing plenty of moisture for snow. Below is a comparison of sea ice growth for the first 16 days of October with 2012. There's a larger and slightly better quality version on the twitter page too.

A comparison of the first 13 days of surface air temperature anomalies across the Arctic. The lack of -ve anomalies and the increasingly widespread +10C anomalies of the last 5 years or so is quite something.

The slow animation, Oct 8th to 13th

Download the individual images and make a gif somewhere like ezgif. Also, NSIDC area and extent, and ADS/JAXA extent now all lowest on record.

NSIDC sea ice area dropped below 2012 yesterday, to lowest on record for the date. Extent is just 63k above 2012, the closest it's been since the beginning of August. As 2012 puts on 380k extent over the next 3 days, we will be lowest on record tomorrow and could end up lowest by close to 1/4 of a million km2 by early next week. What's bad news for the ice may be good for snow though. All that extra open water could enhance snowfall over Siberia.

Area has now dropped below 2012, to lowest on record. Extent is just 63k above 2012. The 3rd smallest October increase so far. The 2 years with less, are 2018 and 2019!

Animation from the last 5 days. Slow progress. Area is likely to drop below 2012 today, with extent doing similarly in the next few days.

You can access the sea ice and loads of other forecast data here: CMEMS Viewer CMEMS.LOBELIA.EARTH Copernicus Marine Service It's all available to download too. The forecasts use the ECM. Laptev and ESS are already well into record territory, but the gap to 2012 looks certain to grow over the coming week.

CMEMS sea ice forecast shows almost no ice growth over the next week, at a time when ice growth should be rapidly accelerating. If it come off then record lows, and by huge margins, should be expected soon. Here's an animation I put together of a comparison between 2012 and 2020, with AMSR2 data to the 7th for 2020, and CMEMS sea ice forecast for the 8th to 14th.

CMEMS sea ice forecast shows almost no growth over the next week. Should it come off, record lows, and by huge margins, should be expected soon. Below is a comparison between 2012 and 2020, with AMSR2 data to the 7th for 2020, and CMEMS forecast for 8th to 14th.

To start with, 2016 had 800,000 km2 (17%) more extent than we have now. So even if we added extent at 100,000 km2 per day, we still wouldn't catch 2016 this month (or next month either!). The extent increase for the first 6 days of October was 206,000km2 (smallest increase on record) in 2016. We've added 301,000km2 so far this year (5th smallest increase)

A little sea ice forecast. Looks like a strong dipole will continue, with winds compressing the sea ice along the Chukchi and Russian facing edges, and spreading it out towards the Atlantic (animation below). This shows up very nicely in the CMEMS sea ice forecasts to the 13th (processed myself, shown below) which predicts, amazingly, further significant losses along the Chukchi, ESS and (to a lesser extent) the Laptev ice edge. Gains in the other regions barely enough to produce growth overall, in what should be a phase of rapidly accelerating sea ice increases. I'd expect area and extent to be below 2012 next week.