BornFromTheVoid

Slow sea ice animation for the past week. Mostly subtle changes.

Latest projections and probabilities At the moment, we have 91.5% chance of finishing between 1.5C and 4.5C. The chances of finishing: Close to average (3.9 to 4.9C) is to 32.3% (2 days ago was 22.6%) Above average (>4.9C) is to 0.4% (2 days ago was 0.8%) Below average (<3.9C) is to 67.3% (2 days ago was 76.6%) No projection finishes below 0C, and only 1 goes below 1C.

Latest projections and probabilities At the moment, we have 91.3% chance of finishing between 1.5C and 4.5C The chances of finishing: Close to average (3.9 to 4.9C) is to 22.6% (2 days ago was 22.2%) Above average (>4.9C) is to 0.8% (2 days ago was 2.8%) Below average (<3.9C) is to 76.6% (2 days ago was 75.0%) No projections finish below 0C.

Slushy snow out at the moment here (Spital Tongues). Sleet is turning increasingly snowy again though

Last pic before my head hits the pillow

Sticking to all surfaces now. Crazy if this keeps going. 20210113_232625_1.mp4

Snowing and beginning to stick to cars and grass in Newcastle!

A few flakes beginning to appear in amongst the rain

Just rain in Toon for now.

My projection, using the GFS, has the CET at 2.7C to the 17th. For a sub zero finish (before corrections) we'll need the average from the 18th to 31st to be less than -3.0C. This has only happened twice before, in 1776 and 1795.

Sea ice in the Barents and Kata have been all over the place recently. Huge variations from one day to the next. (Animation is too big to upload, so here's the tweet)

Latest projections and probabilities At the moment, we have 87.9% chance of finishing between 1.5C and 4.5C The chances of finishing: Close to average (3.9 to 4.9C) is to 22.2% (2 days ago was 20.2%) Above average (>4.9C) is to 2.8% (2 days ago was 4.0%) Below average (<3.9C) is to 75.0% (2 days ago was 75.8%)

I thought some might find this interesting. It highlights the effects of the north sea on snow around the Tyne. Looks like 4 to 9km inland was required for snow to settle EDIT: I should add that the image is from the 9th

They are for the winter periods, so they cross over years. So 2020 is just November and December so far. So there, 1984/85 had 11, 1985/86 had 7, and 1986/87 had 6.

Here are the ice days for the CET, with the 10 year average in red. I actually thought the downward trend would be more stark.

A few pics I got of St. James' stadium from Leazes Park on the 8th Morning Evening

So, I moved this into the climate questions thread, so we can treat these statements as "why are we seeing cold and snow now when these articles claimed we'd never see snow again due to climate change?" The first step here, is I'll ask you to provide the sources for all your claims, then highlight the particular sections of them that support your statements. If you can do that, we can examine the accuracy of the articles and, if needed, the scientific research underpinning them (if they were based on research.) I think it could be a useful exercise!

Here's the latest forecast and probabilities At the moment, we have 84.5% chance of finishing between 1.5C and 4.5C The chances of finishing: Close to average (3.9 to 4.9C) is to 20.2% (2 days ago was 17.3%) Above average (>4.9C) is to 4.0% (2 days ago was 2.4%) Below average (<3.9C) is to 75.8% (2 days ago was 80.2%) The above are all before corrections.

Here's the latest forecast and probabilities At the moment, we have 86% chance of finishing between 1.5C and 4.5C The chances of finishing: Close to average (3.9 to 4.9C) is 17.3% (3 days ago was 20.6%) Above average (>4.9C) is 2.4% (3 days ago was 4.8%) Below average (<3.9C) is 80.2% (3 days ago was 74.6%) The above are all before corrections.

Light snow again in Newcastle

Verging on heavy at times in Newcastle, looks stunning though. Enjoying the super slow-mo settings a bit too much!

Yep, moderate snow falling now again. Looks great!

An inch or so around here, but a lot of slush around too. Managed to get a nice shot of St James' Park at least.

Unfortunately the animations are too big to upload here directly, so here's the tweet with the sea ice melt and refreeze in 2020 at 2 week intervals. Concentration data this time rather than extent.

Light snow falling in Newcastle now.