BornFromTheVoid

Welcome to the forum @Steffan Leach!

Latest PIOMAS volume data is now out, updated to October 31st. 2020 is lowest on record. This is down to the central Arctic basin, Laptev and East Siberian Seas, all of which are lowest on record. For October 31st, current volume is just 80% of the 2010s 53% of the 2000s 40% of the 1990s 36% of the 1980s

That's just how the guy displays the model output, there are way more parameters involved and it used the ECM data for drive it. But yeah, lots can happen between no and next summer, but we're certainly off to a poor start. Latest PIOMAS is out, and 2020 is now lowest on record. Most of this comes from the CAB, Laptev and the ESS, all of which are lowest for Oct 31st.

Latest single day NSIDC extent increase is the largest on record, at +391k, giving a 5 day total of 1.246 million km2. No longer the lowest on record now, 44k above 2016.

Latest single day NSIDC extent increase is the largest on record, at +391k, giving a 5 day total of 1.246 million km2. No longer the lowest on record now, 44k above 2016.

Here's the average October extent for the Russian Arctic seas, ESS, Laptev and Kara. October extent for 2020 in this region was 20% of the average from the last 10 years, and just 10% of the 1980s average.

it's a disappointingly misleading article by the guardian. I posted a bit about it over on the sea ice forum and twitter, but the climate feedback site has reviewed it since then (more qualified than me) and given it a credibility rating of low. Here's their assessment Guardian article on Arctic methane emissions claiming "a new climate feedback loop may have been triggered" lacks important context CLIMATEFEEDBACK.ORG "This article’s claim that methane deposits in the Arctic Ocean are starting to be released, awakening a “sleeping giant”, cannot be...

Aaannnd, the same animation but for the whole month (a larger, better quality version is on the twitter page too)

That's the exit of the Nares Strait (between Greenland and Ellesmere Island). Some of the ice is transported there from the central Arctic just north of Greenland, so there's a mix of freezing and transported ice that tends to produce more variability at times. It's a pretty small spot, so it might also just be noisy data.

Slow sea ice concentration animation from the past week

Slow animation of the past week

With ice-free area at record levels for the Arctic, and for the day that's in it...

Here's the 2 day change map based on the MASIE data. We've added 596k in the last 2 days. Almost half of this has come from the Russian Arctic seas (ESS +127k, Laptev +73k and Kara +84K). The CAA, Baffin and Hudson Bay (+103k, +79k and +51k respectively) are the other big gainers. North east passage now essentially cut off. The amount of open water in the Arctic ocean is still unprecedented. This will help with snow cover over the continents though. EDIT: Snap, MIA

7.0C and 100mm, thanks

Goni currently a CAT 5 equivalent super typhoon, with winds of >170 mph. It's on a direct collision course with the capital of the Philippines, Manilla. There's the potential for this to be a huge disaster. Official data is here

@Midlands Ice Age I downloaded the MASIE data and made a change map from the last 2 days. As the regional numbers suggest, lots of ice gained in the CAA and Baffin. It looks like Hudson Bay has new ice all along the south western shoreline, probably where the water is most shallow so can rapidly cool and freeze under the current exceptional cold.

Here's a map of the daily change for the NISDC data. Main areas are on the ESS side of the central pack and the Kara sea, so it's not related to a change in the land/sea masks. This agrees with the ADS/JAXA data, that you can see here: http://ads.nipr.ac.jp/../faviconADS.ico VISHOP ADS.NIPR.AC.JP VIsualization Service of Horizontal scale Observations at Polar region The massive increases are somewhat inevitable. The sea ice minimum is shrinking at a much faster rate than the maximum, so after the 2nd smallest minimum value the refreeze rate eventually has to accelerate to faster than the long term average. This may be extra notable this year because we've gone so far into Autumn without a significant freeze up (hence all the crazy record lows). I fully expect to see several 200k+ gains over the next few weeks. In fact the years with the 10 lowest minima average 7.5 200k+ daily gains, while all other years average 3.5. 2011 had 11 200k+ daily gains! We've only had one so far.

NSIDC daily extent increase was +299k, 4th largest single day increase in October in over 30 years. Still 628k less than the next lowest year on record though.

Ice growth is finally taking off along the Russian Arctic seas, doubling in extent over the last 7 days.

Here's the 5 lowest for October 27th 2020 - 6.017 (million km2) 2019 - 7.029 2016- 7.068 2012- 7.443 2007- 7.642 Currently, it's 3.750 million km2 below the 1980s average.

While the snow is doing great, the ice extent is now lowest on record by over 1 million km2

On the latest update to October 27ᵗʰ, daily NSIDC extent is now lowest on record by a staggering 1,012,000 km2. As it's the Czechoslovac state day in the Czech Republic, this equates to over 13 times the land area of the Czech Republic. This anomaly is largely down to the continued lack of substantial ice growth along the Russian Arctic. The annual cumulative anomaly for this region is already the most -ve on record, yet there's still over two months of the year to go.