BornFromTheVoid
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Posts posted by BornFromTheVoid
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Weekly animation. The Chukchi Sea is quickly filling in and the Bering Sea gained its first substantial ice cover. Growth is slow in most areas, however. Kara is still struggling to gain any ice and continues lowest on record.
As for an ice bridge to Iceland, keep in mind that most of the maps posted here are "extent" maps, which means anything above 15% ice cover over areas of 10s of km2 are displayed as solid white. The animation above is concentration, so is a slightly better representation of how much ice is actually there.
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Weekly animation. The Chukchi Sea is quickly filling in and the Bering Sea gained its first substantial ice cover. Growth is slow in most areas, however. Kara is still struggling to gain any ice and continues lowest on record.
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Here's the projected values, with the GFS 7 day forecast included. The values below in brackets are from 3 days ago, to show the change in projections.
Warmest: 7.4C (7.5C)
Coldest: 2.0C (1.4C)
Top 10: 6.5C (6.1C)
Bottom 10: 3.0C (2.3C)
81-10: 5.0C (4.6C)The ranges of 4.0C to 4.5C and 5.0C to 5.5C are both at 17.7%, the highest of the bunch. The range from 4.0C to 6.0C covers 64.9% of the probability.
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Ice growth so far this refreeze, at increments of 10 days.
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Extent extent remains 2nd lowest on record up to December 9th, 217k above 2016. However, 2016 gained 271k on the 10th, so without a substantial increase on tomorrows update, 2020 will once again be lowest on record overall.
The Russian Sea along to Barents Sea are still lowest on record, however.
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A good chance that this will be the first year with an average anomaly of over 1.5 million km2
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Here is the projected CET again, but only the one with the GFS forecast data included. I've added the distribution of projected finishing ranges too.
Warmest: 7.5C
Coldest: 1.4C
Top 10: 6.1C
Bottom 10: 2.3C
81-10: 4.6CThe most likely finish is between 3.5C and 4.0C (16.5%), but the grouping from 3.5C to 6.0C covers 71%
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Here are the same projections, updated from yesterday.
Warmest: 8.2C
Coldest: -0.5C
Top 10: 6.5C
Bottom 10: 1.1C
81-10: 4.3C
Same as above, but with the GFS 7 day forecast included (rough estimate from eyeballing the min and max in the CET area).
Warmest: 7.7C
Coldest: 1.2C
Top 10: 6.1C
Bottom 10: 2.1C
81-10: 4.5C
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Samuel Hayes explores how Arctic Amplification impacts the UK's winter weather, and how it links into the stratosphere, sea ice, snow cover and more.
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Here's the CET for December projected forward using the data from previous years.
Projected finishing values:
Warmest: 8.5C
Coldest: -0.6C
Top 10: 6.6C
Bottom 10: 1.1C
81-10: 4.3C
Same as above, but with the GFS 7 day forecast included (rough estimate from eyeballing the min and max in the CET area).
Warmest: 7.9C
Coldest: 1.0C
Top 10: 6.3C
Bottom 10: 2.1C
81-10: 4.5C
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Sea ice volume is 2nd lowest on record, slightly above 2016. The difference between 2020 and 2016 is more than accounted for by 2020s extra ice in the Greenland Sea and Hudson Bay. For the Arctic seas themselves, overall 2020 is slightly below 2016.
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Warmest Autumn in the Siberian Arctic,
Meanwhile, volume remains 2nd lowest on record, a little ahead of 2016.
Most of 2020s advantage over 2016 comes from Hudson Bay and the Greenland Sea. Most other areas are quite close, or 2020 is slightly below.
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7 minutes ago, andreas said:
Hi - I'm not sure if this is the right thread for this, so please feel free to delete/move. But I rather grimly wonder when we have synoptic patterns like today's that deliver only rain whether these are events that fifty years (or even thirty years) ago would have brought low level snow. Obviously it's never possible to give definitive answers but I'd be interested in views on which all-rain events (for low ground) over recent years would have been most likely to have delivered snow in the past. Thanks
Interestingly, @Singularity put out an article today dealing with this issue, at least partially. Might be worth a read.
High Sensitivity of Snow to Climate Change in Temperate Maritime Climates - Metswift
WWW.METSWIFT.COMIn ocean-driven climates, winter snowfall responds strongly to even slight warming. Not even mountains are immune, as the...-
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1 minute ago, summer blizzard said:
Upward adjustment?
Downward, 8.70 to 8.51C
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Yep, final values have updated.
November had 20 days above the 81-10 average and 10 days below.
4 days were in the top 5 warmest and 1 days was the warmest on record, the 18th.Below is the daily mean for November compared to the 81-10 average, max, min, top 5 and bottom 5 values.
The same as above, but for the year so far.
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We enter December as 2nd lowest on record, slightly above 2016
However, the main reason we're above 2016 is due to Hudson Bay. We are currently 15th highest, while 2016 was 2nd lowest (for November 30th), a difference of over half a million km2.
Conversely, we are once again lowest on record for the Russian Arctic Sea's and the Central Arctic
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We enter December as 2nd lowest on record, slightly above 2016
However, the main reason we're above 2016 is due to Hudson Bay. We are currently 15th highest, while 2016 was 2nd lowest (for November 30th), a difference of over half a million km2.
Conversely, we are once again lowest on record for the Russian Arctic Sea's and the Central Arctic
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Assuming that actual daily values will be +/- 1.5C your estimates, RJS, that gives a range of 8.3C to 8.7C.
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Strangely, the daily values have been confirmed up to the 26th, and are at 9.0C (8.954). It also confirms a new daily record for the 18th (12.8C)
If someone can give me a rough estimate of the range of CET values the last 4 days, I can probably narrow down the final figure to within half a degree or so. -
A few bits to share.
Weekly concentration animation up to the 28th
Weekly extent graph and animation up to the 28th.
Finally, a focus on the Kara Sea, showing how it has waxed and waned over the last 5 weeks or so.
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A few bits to share.
Weekly concentration animation up to the 28th
Weekly extent graph and animation up to the 28th.
Finally, a focus on the Kara Sea, showing how it has waxed and waned over the last 5 weeks or so.
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Russian Arctic sea's have flatlined in the last 10 days and are back below 2012. Without a significant acceleration in growth, 2020 will be back to the lowest values in a week.
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Russian Arctic sea's have flatlined in the last 10 days and are back below 2012. Without a significant acceleration in growth, 2020 will be back to the lowest values in a week.
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December 2020 C.E.T. and EWP forecast contests -- start of the new contest year for 2020-2021
in Spring Weather Discussion
Posted
Here's the projected values, with the GFS 7 day forecast included. The values below in brackets are from 2 days ago, to show the change in projections.
Warmest: 7.2C (7.4C)
Coldest: 2.3C (2.0C)
Top 10: 6.6C (6.5C)
Bottom 10: 3.4C (3.0C)
81-10: 5.3C (5.0C)
Quite a big change from 2 days back. There is now a 30% chance of finishing close to average (between 4.1C and 5.1C), 14% chance of below average (< 4.1C) and a 56% chance of above average (> 5.1C).
5.5 - 6.0C has the highest probability at the moment (24.2%). A well above average month looking likely if we can't get that cold spell in the final week.