[January 2021 C.E.T. and EWP forecast contests]

Here's the January CET projection (with 5 day GFS forecast) and probability distribution

 

At the moment, we have >80% chance of finishing between 2.0C and 5.0C

The chances of finishing:
Close to average (3.9 to 4.9C) is 20.6%
Above average (>4.9C) is 4.8%
Below average (<3.9C) is 74.6%

The above are all before corrections.

[Snow & Ice coverage in the Northern Hemisphere Winter 2020/21]

Animation of the sea ice extent coverage change for the year. Split into the freeze up to the 11th smallest maximum, melt to the 2nd smallest minimum and freeze to end of year.

 

[Arctic Refreeze Season: 2020/21]

2020 extent overview gif, split into the freeze to max, melt to min and freeze to end of the year.
Can't seem to upload the gif seperately, (might be too big) so here's the gif in a tweet.

 

[Far north and northeast of England weather discussion]

About cm covering here in Spital Tongues. That's at least falling snow in 4 of the last 7 days for me, (including 3 in Ireland). Hopefully we can keep the ball rolling!

[December 2020 C.E.T. and EWP forecast contests -- start of the new contest year for 2020-2021]

So 9 of the 10 warmest years have occurred since 1990.

For this year:
31 days were in the top 10 warmest, 8 of which were daily records.
5 days were in the 10 coldest, but no daily cold records were set.

[Ireland Regional Weather Discussion 13/12/2018 Onwards]

Wet snow falling again in south Tipp. Not sticking for now, but hopefully it gets a bit heavier.

[Ireland Regional Weather Discussion 13/12/2018 Onwards]

Amazing moon halo last night (in south Tipp atm)

[January 2021 C.E.T. and EWP forecast contests]

2.1C and 62mm, thanks

[Model Output Discussion - Into the new year]

This is the MOD thread folks. Lets try not to derail things with arguments about climate change. If anyone wants to pursue that discussion then we can get a thread going in the climate area. Cheers!

[Ireland Regional Weather Discussion 13/12/2018 Onwards]

Got some snow in south Tipp yesterday. Huge flakes and stuck a little bit eventually. Turned to rain during the night though, so all gone now.

 

[December 2020 C.E.T. and EWP forecast contests -- start of the new contest year for 2020-2021]

Here are the latest projections. Estimate of the next 5 days from the GFS is 2.7C (values from 3 days ago in brackets).

Warmest: 5.8C (6.3C)
Coldest:  4.4C (4.5C)
Top 10:  5.8C (6.1C)
Bottom 10:  4.7C (4.7C)
81-10:  5.3C (5.6C)

There is now a 31% chance of finishing close to average (between 4.1C and 5.1C), 0% chance of below average (< 4.1C) and a 69% chance of above average (> 5.1C).

The focus has shifted a little, with 5.0C to 5.5C now the favoured provisional value with a 45.6% probability.

[December 2020 C.E.T. and EWP forecast contests -- start of the new contest year for 2020-2021]

Here's the projected values, with the GFS 7 day forecast included. The values below in brackets are from yesterday, to show the change in projections. Estimate of the next 7 days from the GFS is 5.2C (8.0C from 21st to 23rd and 3.1C from 24th to 28th)

Warmest: 6.3C (6.6C)
Coldest:  4.5C (4.3C)
Top 10:  6.1C (6.3C)
Bottom 10:  4.7C (4.6C)
81-10:  5.6C (5.6C)

There is now a 19% chance of finishing close to average (between 4.1C and 5.1C), 0% chance of below average (< 4.1C) and a 81% chance of above average (> 5.1C).
5.5-6.0C has the highest probability, shooting up to 44.8% today.
Overall, there's a 74.2% chance of finishing between 5.0C and 6.0C.

[Snow & Ice coverage in the Northern Hemisphere Winter 2020/21]

Volume still comfortably second lowest on record. Most of the difference to 2016 comes from Hudson Bay, with the Arctic seas pretty close to lowest overall.

 

[Arctic Refreeze Season: 2020/21]

Volume still comfortably second lowest on record. Most of the difference to 2016 comes from Hudson Bay, with the Arctic seas pretty close overall

 

[December 2020 C.E.T. and EWP forecast contests -- start of the new contest year for 2020-2021]

Here's the projected values, with the GFS 7 day forecast included. The values below in brackets are from yesterday, to show the change in projections.

Warmest: 6.6C (6.9C)
Coldest:  4.3C (4.1C)
Top 10:  6.3C (6.5C)
Bottom 10:  4.6C (4.5C)
81-10:  5.6C (5.7C)

There is now a 21.8% chance of finishing close to average (between 4.1C and 5.1C), 0% chance of below average (< 4.1C) and a 78.2% chance of above average (> 5.1C).
5.5-6.0C has the highest probability, 37.9% today.
Overall, there's a 84.7% chance of finishing between 5.0C and 6.5C.

[Arctic Refreeze Season: 2020/21]

With an increase of 805,000 km² in the last 6 days, extent has climbed from 2nd to 7th lowest on record. This is the highest position extent has occupied since the 28th of June.

[Snow & Ice coverage in the Northern Hemisphere Winter 2020/21]

With an increase of 805,000 km² in the last 6 days, extent has climbed from 2nd to 7th lowest on record. This is the highest position extent has occupied since the 28th of June.

[December 2020 C.E.T. and EWP forecast contests -- start of the new contest year for 2020-2021]

Here's the projected values, with the GFS 7 day forecast included. The values below in brackets are from 2 days ago, to show the change in projections.

Warmest: 6.9C (6.8C)
Coldest:  4.1C (3.3C)
Top 10:  6.5C (6.5C)
Bottom 10:  4.5C (4.0C)
81-10:  5.7C (5.5C)

There is now a 22.2% chance of finishing close to average (between 4.1C and 5.1C), 0.4% chance of below average (< 4.1C) and a 77.4% chance of above average (> 5.1C).
5.5-6.0C has the highest probability, 28.6% today. 6.0-6.5C is close now too, with 28%.
Overall, there's a 79% chance of finishing between 5.0C and 6.5C.

[Snow and Ice coverage in the Northern Hemisphere autumn / winter 2020/2021 (Twitter photos and videos)]

Beautiful time-lapse

 

[December 2020 C.E.T. and EWP forecast contests -- start of the new contest year for 2020-2021]

Here's the projected values, with the GFS 7 day forecast included. The values below in brackets are from 3 days ago, to show the change in projections.

Warmest: 6.8C (7.2C)
Coldest:  3.3C (2.3C)
Top 10:  6.5C (6.6C)
Bottom 10:  4.0C (3.4C)
81-10:  5.5C (5.3C)

Big changes yet again. There is now a 32% chance of finishing close to average (between 4.1C and 5.1C), 6% chance of below average (< 4.1C) and a 62% chance of above average (> 5.1C).
5.5 - 6.0C has the highest probability at the moment , increasing from 24.2%  3 days ago to 31.9%.

[Global Surface Air & Sea Temperatures: Current Conditions and Future Prospects]

15 minutes ago, Styx said:

It would be interesting to see a graph showing temperature anomaly at different latitudes plotted alongside each other, spanning a number of years, but longer the better. Or.. since the Arctic region seems to be the standout 'hotspot' for obvious reasons , a line graph plotting Arctic region anomaly v Global anomaly.  

 

The GISS page allows you to look at those latitude plots for different years

Data.GISS: GISS Surface Temperature Analysis (v4): Global Maps

DATA.GISS.NASA.GOV

For the Arctic vs the rest of the world:

 

[Cyclone Yasa]

Just about to make landfall

[Winter 2020/21 - Moans, Ramps & Chat]

1 hour ago, Rapodo said:

Is there a way to block certain users posts appearing? 

There's an "Ignored Users" setting in the dropdown menu under your profile at the top of the page.

[Global Surface Air & Sea Temperatures: Current Conditions and Future Prospects]

27 minutes ago, Gray-Wolf said:

What are we supposed to expect when we are told that the Arctic Ocean is now taking up huge amounts of energy each year that then needs shedding before refreeze can begin?

We could be looking at a small Niño's worth of energy pouring into the Arctic atmosphere each & every autumn from now on!

The last 'Super Nino' was aided & abetted by such a wallop of energy 

Looks like the Arctic added around 0.15C to the global anomaly this month, enough to take it from 3rd to 1st warmest.
0.15C doesn't seem like much but it's impressive for an area that represents just 4% of the Earths surface.

[Global Surface Air & Sea Temperatures: Current Conditions and Future Prospects]

2020 has set a new record for November, according to NASA GISS data. A remarkable achievement, given we're in a La Nina. Goes to show the growing power of Arctic Amplification.