[December 2013 CET forecasts -- 2013/14 Competition]

The minimum today was probably close to 4.5C, while maxima look like reaching above 9C, so something around 7C to the first is likely.

 

After that, the 06z GFS op run has the CET at

5.6C to the 2nd (4.2)

5.2C to the 3rd (4.5)

5.4C to the 4th (5.9)

5.2C to the 5th (4.4)

4.2C to the 6th (-1.1)

3.4C to the 7th (-1.4)

2.8C to the 8th (-1.1)

 

[November forecasts -- 2013 C.E.T. competition]

Here's how the Autumn and individual months compared to some different averages

 

Month.............. 61-90.......... 71-00....... 81-10........... 1901-00...... 1659-2012

 

September........ +0.1............ 0.0.............-0.3.................+0.2.............+0.4

October............ +1.9............+2.1............+1.8................+2.3.............+2.8

November......... -0.3.............-0.7............-0.9.................-0.3..............+0.1

 

Autumn.............+0.5............+0.5............+0.2................+0.7...............+1.1

[Manmade Climate Change Discussion]

He has spent 25 years studying the subject and written several well received books on the subject. Now I appreciate he doesnt wear green wellington boots, stands in a field and measures things , but he is more then qualified.

 

http://www.amazon.co.uk/An-Appeal-Reason-Global-Warming/dp/0715638416

 

Writing a book in order to byass peer review now makes someone qualified? Does that include Monkton? 

[Manmade Climate Change Discussion]

Totally agree BFTV, but the quality of the research wasn't that good and was later dropped by the IPCC on receding glaciers. One small point would you take that stance if the quality of research was conducted by a sceptical scientist?

 

Can you give me some links to the WWF or Greenpeace research that the IPCC used?

I would indeed take the same stance. Once it's peer reviewed by a reputable journal

[Manmade Climate Change Discussion]

Each to their own Dev, but the IPCC have actually used evidence gathered by the WWF and Greenpeace ( though not sure about Greenpeace ). IMO they are nothing more than middle class political ideologist with far too much time on their hands and far too few brain cells between them. So in your world they are super heroes but for the majority they are viewed in a different light and rightly so. 

 

Edit; I use to support the WWF and Greenpeace but that support was withdrawn in the late 90s.

 

What research is that SI? Besides, shouldn't the quality of the research, not who conducted it, be the thing that matters?

[Manmade Climate Change Discussion]

Do you mean that some people can be so stupid that they do not even realise they are stupid?

 

So incompetent and uninformed that they think they know and understand everything?

[Snow and Ice in the Northern Hemisphere 2013/14]

Some really good ice images.

 

arctic_SSMIS_visual.png

 

arctic_SSMIS_nic.png

 

http://www.arctic.io/sea-ice-charts/#webcams-satellites

 

I think you might like this page

https://sites.google.com/site/arcticseaicegraphs/

[Manmade Climate Change Discussion]

Following my North County Times and U-T San Diego letters to the editor on the relationship between rising atmospheric carbon dioxide levels and global warming, some subsequent letter writers praised me while others questioned my credibility.

 

This took a different twist after a letter from me that was published back in February 2013, when some individuals started to directly email me (I have now received more than 170 of these).

 

One challenged me to a debate about whether global warming and rising carbon dioxide was real science, or a hoax, and stated that I was “woefully ignorant of climate science and even the basics of how science works.†In response, I suggested we arrange a debate through an organization such as the National Academy of Sciences. The response: the academy could not “be relied upon to provide a neutral setting or neutral format,†and I was asked, “Has science now evolved into the telling of ‘tall tales,’ where logic and evidence are no longer required?†A follow-up email stated, “The climate cult does not want to get it right. Climate science is solo corrupt.â€

 

I decided to provide direct links to recent publications and other events dealing with man-made climate change to the group emailing me, who call themselves “global-warming realists†(it should really be “global-warming deniersâ€). I forwarded an announcement of a free video seminar, “Understanding and communicating the science of climate change: A chemist’s responsibility,†sponsored by the American Chemical Society. An email that followed asked whether the presenters (one the president of the society) were “too distinguished to understand the most elementary of logic?â€

 

I then recommended the group read the article “Global carbon dioxide levels near worrisome milestone†published in the May 2 issue of Nature. Return emails stated, “He (the author) just repeats the same old stuff that you gobble up as fact†and â€as to Nature, does Distinguished Jeffery (sic) know that Nature will not publish any disagreements with the prevailing dogma?â€

 

I next sent the announcement of the XIV Roger Revelle Commemorative Lecture at Scripps, “Melting Ice: What ss happening to Arctic sea ice and what does it mean to us,†presented on May 8 by John Walsh from the University of Alaska in Fairbanks. A response: “How can this be considered ‘science’ if (as I assume) no questioning of the paradigm is allowed and patented Democratic Party political language (e.g., “unprecedentedâ€) is used to promote the lecture?â€

 

I next suggested they look at the Aug. 2 issue of Science, which contained a special issue, “Natural systems in changing climates,†and a statement about the special issue from the editor. The responses: “An obligatory statement from the new editor of Science that she is fully on board with all the climate dogma and unable to think for herself is the central problem with science today,†and “How much better it would have been for the new editor to affirm her dedication to the scientific method rather than to faith-based science and the federal gravy train.†A footnote at the end of an email noted the new editor was “a blond who originally hails from Scripps.†By the way, the “blond†is a member of the National Academy of Sciences.

 

 

 

More of this unfortunate and all too common anti-science mindset here http://www.utsandiego.com/news/2013/nov/28/global-warming-deniers-guilty-of-attack-on-science/

[Arctic Ice Discussion 2013-14: the refreeze...]

The ice has been doing well in recent days, but that's no cause for exaggeration, 2004 isn't even on the chart, and how on earth can you tell if it's above or below 2005 and 2008? Somewhere between highest and 4th highest in the last decade certainly doesn't sound as good though...

I thought you would have been all over that kind of misrepresentation and exaggeration, Stew!?

 

Anywho, on today's DMI chart things are looking better again and clearly above 2005 and 2008. On IJIS we've gained over 520k in the last 4 days, and NSIDC has jumped over 430k in the last 3 days.

 

Looks like Hudson Bay is providing quite a boost in the last few days and with the cold remaining there over the next 4 days at least, this boost may continue.

Elsewhere the gains have been more modest, the Atlantic side doing slightly better than last year, but still below average. The Pacific side meanwhile is off to a slow start, especially compared to recent -ve PDO years.

[December 2013 CET forecasts -- 2013/14 Competition]

The 06z GFS op run has the CET at about 3.5C to the 6th, just as the cold arrives...

[November forecasts -- 2013 C.E.T. competition]

6.6C to the 28th

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/cet_mean_est_2013

 

Yesterday was 8.5C. Minimum today is 6.6C, while maxima look like reaching the high 9s (mean around 8.2), so remaining on 6.6C on tomorrows update.

The 06z GFS op run has the final day at about 5.0C, so likely to remain on 6.6C. After corrections, anything from 6.1 to 6.5C is possible it seems.

[Ireland Regional Discussion - Autumn 2013]

Cold spell runs from 6th december onwards the whole way to the end of the run iwth no higher than -7c uppers! Woop woop

 

No point getting too excited for something that far away, it will have changed on the next run.

[Model Banter, Moans and Ramps]

[Ireland Regional Discussion - Autumn 2013]

06z GFS looking pretty good after a tasty ECM. The trend in clearly there now, which is the important thing when looking for cold spells at 5+ days away.

[Model Output Discussion 18th Nov.2013-12z onwards.]

We've see an upper ridge gradually push north from the end of October/early November, bringing mild conditions at first and gradually more settled and cooler conditions during the month.

Below is the 500hPa geopotential height anomalies in 7 day averages, and shows the progression of the upper ridge which is currently dominating our weather.

 

Now that the ridge has reached out to our west and toward southern Greenland, I think this may become a strong feature of the next few weeks, with repeated ridging toward Greenland and the potential of opening the northerly floodgates.

Indeed, the ECM shows the ridge never moving too far from it's mid Atlantic/southern Greenland position, right out to the end of the run

 

t0 ............................................. ................................ t72

 

t144 ........................ .................... ........................ t216

 

The 8-10 day mean height comparison shows the situation well, with the GFS not too dissimilar to the ECM

 

The CFS has reaffirmed it's prediction of moderate blocking to our north in December, too, which further backs up the cold spell potential. (explanation for the chart below is here http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/77743-winter-20132014-forecastshopesdiscussion-thread/page-117#entry2806211)

 

 

 

Let the individual runs do what they will do, and keep an eye on the broader picture. As long as we maintain the ridge nearby, but especially close to Greenland (and the polar vortex remains away from Greenland) the potential for northerlies remains strong imo.

 

[Winter 2013-2014 Discussion- Part 2]

Laptop issue, and generally being out of the house a lot over the last few weeks has prevented these updates from being as regular as I'd like. Hopefully I'll have the time to update this more regularly from now on.

 

Update for the December and January 12z CFS trends. (explanation for the charts can be found here http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/77743-winter-20132014-forecastshopesdiscussion-thread/page-117#entry2806211) 

 

The 12z CFS data for the 23rd doesn't seem to be available, but it shouldn't matter too much.

 

Below is the latest December chart, the daily values in the blue bars, 10 day mean in red and trend in black.

 

 

The last 7 days have averaged 1.4 (between weak and moderate blocking to the north), with 5 runs showing positive sea level pressure anomalies, 1 showing negative and showing neutral. (the previous 7 days were exactly the same).

It would appear that, despite a downward trend over the whole chart, we've seen the forecast northern blocking increase since the end of October, from weak to moderate levels of blocking. The CFS is then currently hinting a moderate level of blocking to our north in December.

 

Below is the chart for January

 

The last 7 days have averaged 1.3, with 5 runs showing positive anomalies, 1 negative and 1 neutral (the previous 7 days were 2.7, with 5 positive, 1 negative and 1 neutral).

The 10 day mean for January has remained remarkably consistent rarely moves far from the moderate blocking category. In the last 65 runs, 74% have suggested +ve SLP anomalies to our north in January.

 

 

Here are some highlighted charts from the last while

 

Best

Novemer 13th 12z CFS

 

Worst

November 26th 12z CFS

 

 

[Winter 2013-2014 Discussion- Part 2]

Anyone know where I can get the 12z CFS data from the 23rd? Doesn't seem to be on the meteociel site

[Snow and Ice in the Northern Hemisphere 2013/14]

There is always a lull in ice growth at the start of Nov. Looking at the NISDC data ovet 12 months.(on phone and cant post chart) You can see the last few years have all followed a similar pattern before resuming ice growth.

 

The odd year has shown a large slow down in early November but the growth from the 1st to the 8th is still 61k/day on average (79-11), but the growth this year from the 1st to the 8th was the smallest on record at 3.3k/day.

 

 

Stretching it out to the 1st to 13th, it was still second lowest on record. So I don't think it was following any normal pattern.

[Snow and Ice in the Northern Hemisphere 2013/14]

Latest November sea ice extent based on the NSIDC data

 

 

We've had a very good rebound from the slow start, but still not enough to raise this year above the 6th lowest on record.

[Winter 2013-2014 Discussion- Part 2]

Hi BFTV. I would say that my methods are probably much less scientific than many on here, like yourself for example. I employ an approach which employs an amalgamation of a number of factors. For example I look for trends within long range modelling, I look at the state of ENSO, the QBO and have a peek at what the analogues suggest (although I tend not to take these at face value). I don't crunch numbers or anything like that, I just analyse what I see in front of me and plump for the scenario that appears the best fit. The forecast then just comes to me (it's hard to explain) and I write it down how I feel it's likely to pan out.

 

I think it's possible to be too over analytical and people can try to be too precise when formulating a long range forecast and I find a broad brushstroke (having taken a more holistic stance) usually fares best. Like I say, it's interesting how we've both arrived at the same scenario though!

 

Such differing methods, but the same result, suppose it can only be a good thing!

[Arctic Ice Data And Stats.]

Update for the week to November 23rd

 

The current 1 day extent is 10,502,100km2, while the 5 day mean is on 10,328,510km2

 

The daily anomaly (compared to 79-11) is at -671,980km2, a decrease from -949,470km2 last week. The anomaly compared to the 07, 11 and 12 average has increased from +145,013km2 to +250,010km2 this week. We're currently 7th lowest on record, compared to 5th last week.

 

The average daily increase over the last 7 days was +103.2k/day, compared to the long term average of +63.6k/day, and the average of the last 5 years of +77.1k/day.

 

The average long term increase over the next week is +74.7k/day, with the average of the last 5 years being +70.2k/day.

 

The increase so far this November is the 16th smallest on record. To record the largest November gain in total, an average daily increase of 184.8k/day is required for the next 7 days. To record the smallest November gain, an daily average of -42.9k/day is required.

 

[The Seasonal Forecast Thread]

BFTV

Well done on producing indepth forecast....that's a strong anomaly for December!  So a sizeable difference of opinion....I prefer your outcome to mine weather-wise.  So eyes down as we enter Dec and see where we all go.

 

Something is preventing me from copying posts, this site doesn't half cause issues with my computer...anyone any ideas?

 

BFTV the anomaly chart for Dec ....is that a good representation of your thoughts as it suggests that High Pressure is more centred around Southern Greenland rather than ridging up there?

 

 

BFTP

 

Cheers BFTP. I just think that we'll see more in the way of ridging toward Greenland in December, rather than a high extending down from the Arctic. I'd generally the Winter 500hPa GPH composite anomalies over the Arctic with a pinch of salt when they include many recent years, just because the 500hPa level has lifted in general over the last decade and my skew the composite maps for the region a little.

[Winter 2013-2014 Discussion- Part 2]

Bloody hell BFTV, your forecast is pretty much bang in line with how I see winter panning out.......like, exactly how I see it. I can't top that in terms of presentation either. It's like you read my mind!!

 

Cheers CC. What method have you been using for your own forecasts?

[November forecasts -- 2013 C.E.T. competition]

Yesterday was 2.5C. Min today is 0.9C, while maxima look like reaching about 7C, so a drop to 6.6 or 6.7C is likely tomorrow.

 

After that, the 06z GFS has the CET at

6.5C to the 25th (2.8]

6.3C to the 26th (2.4)

6.3C to the 27th (5.7)

6.3C to the 28th (7.1)

6.4C to the 29th (6.7)

6.3C to the 30th (5.9)

[Ireland Regional Discussion - Autumn 2013]

-0.8C overnight. Yesterday's max was just 4.6C, quite low for November. Quite cloudy so far today, with the occasional sunny spell. Still very cool though, just 4.1C.