Number 23

Oh of course it's not gospel because it's the Met, but in the interests of balance, some of the earlier output did suggest a possible event for our region, so I suppose they have to ensure any warnings cover the range of possibilities until they're absolutely sure. They've not really gone in for a proper cold outlook as yet to my knowledge, so as this fits with the excitement over the impending effects of the SSW I think this is encouraging. Equally they seem to think marginality is the order of the day for now, which also fits with the short term output. Just frustrating that the hinted cold is so far off as to be subject to the usual changes and uncertainty at that range.

Latest Met update seems to suggest a non event/drop and drip affair for anyone not at elevation in our part of the world over the next week or two. Then a period of mush to get through until the final part of the month, where they seem confident of more widespread and productive cold. So to my untrained eye, seems we're pinning our hopes on the SSW effects to play out. But there's a lot of hours and a lot of uncertainty between now and then, and if the results aren't kind to us, I think whatever alternative pattern we end up in could see off the bulk of what remains of winter proper. Don't mean to be downbeat as it's an encouraging update long term, but really feel this winter might hinge on that period three or so weeks away now.

Happy new year, fellow weather geeks.

Getting excited over FI charts is a hobby in itself, which is fine but I'd find it bloody exhausting in the end! I dread to think how many new members have proudly informed friends and relatives of the impending armageddon recently. It's hard to pick out what is JFF initially. "I have inside info" Two weeks later... "Mate, I bought three sledges for the kids and it's 11 degrees out" Been there, done that in years gone by!

At least it feels like winter now. The grass is white ish; the cat gave me a b****cking for leaving him in the garden too long; I keep finding the thermostat mysteriously cranked up to 400 degrees... All signs of a classic winter spell, and this is all happening at T-0 people can you believe it?!

I sometimes miss the days of a raging PV and blowtorch jet. At least you knew where you stood with those. So far, this winter is like a beautiful birthday cake... filled with drawing pins.

So we've been given Bells whiskey at the in laws all over Christmas. Not what we wanted but better than nothing. We suspected the father in law had some single malt somewhere, but it's in a secret location far away in the garage. He's brought the single malt inside now, but it's still in the kitchen and we've not been offered one yet. Will he cave and pour us one? Does he have a bottle of 18 year old stashed away too? We'll just have to suffer Mrs Brown's Boys and wait it out. That's my completely scientific analysis of the state of play.

Sheldon loving your enthusiasm, who cares if you get it wrong from time to time, not like this is a site immune to errors! It's up to other members to decide who to trust and who to ignore, and that's not something for you to worry about! Think it's looking increasingly like this thread will need some positivity over the coming days, as we continue to traverse the badlands of FI for a cold spell worthy of the name, at least for our little part of the UK.

Been very interesting to watch the suggested pattern slowly become reality over the past couple of weeks. Given me something to do while in lockdown! I think many will be getting impatient for some of those impressive synoptics to bring something to the surface before long though. I'd really like to see some proper cold creeping into the 144 range before long. That's just pure cynicism after years of watching things go pear shaped though, and totally against the background signals for early Jan

Just goes to show what a bugger it is forecasting snow even at short range! Let's hope the new year brings something interesting out of the emerging set up.

Well if that ECM output is to be believed some of us would be buried. Somewhat surprised to see that pop up to be honest, as I thought we'd be waiting until Jan for anything that impressive. Think I might be too far north when all's said and done, but fun to have a raffle ticket for now. Would be great for my nippers, who've been stuck indoors for most of their lives!

Yeah but this was always going to be localised initially, especially with the 850's sat where they are? Admittedly we're really looking out into the new year for signs of a significant nationwide event. Sporadic drop and drip events the order of the day until then, I fear.

No doubt snow chances pretty much anywhere in the coming week, so a perfectly passable cold spell at surface level even as they stand. But many of us want more than passable! Plenty of scope for a more classic spell down the line, but would be much more comfortable if and when some of it comes into view! The inbound SSW might offer the less favoured areas a route out of marginality perhaps?

Thanks! I don't usually buy into FI output, and appreciate a lot needs to verify in the short term for it to be a possibility! Feels like a long time since we've had anything interesting to discuss, especially so early in the season!

Fine to disagree, but this comes across as a bit dismissive? I've seen many cold spells falsely advertised over the years, but was of the opinion this may be different. However, I'm a layman, so perhaps I've overreached by posting that. Back in my box !

I think we're right to be sceptical of such impressive charts at 10 days, but this has been the culmination of many, many days of watching the ingredients for cold slowly aligning. Of course, fine details and adjustments in hi res will probably mean any extreme solutions advertised won't play out, it's hardly ever as clean nearer the time, but I think it has to be said that this is no rogue easterly thrown out and then dropped immediately. Very rare to get output like this being played with by all models for so long. Certainly has the feel of "one of those" winter spells inbound.

If anything highlights the futility of putting stock into each run, today would be it. Parts of 18z gone off on one in FI. Tomorrow will surely walk it back. Volatility like this is sometimes a prelude to interesting weather down the road though.

I'd happily take a few dry sunny days over Christmas. Interesting times on the MOD thread, been quite good this season for learning about the more complicated drivers that contribute to cold in the UK, regardless of the frequent posting of random ensemble members at +300000 hours If anything, it's served to highlight how many variables need to align around the hemisphere to bring lasting snow to these shores!

Couldn't give a rats about tomorrow, only interested in notable cold spells or a short sharp frontal event that delivers decent depths. Otherwise I'll take sunshine or mild and dry. That being said, I think talk of this being a let down is premature. My layman's knowledge and years of reading the forums leads me to believe we still have a decent chance of something significant developing through December. Anyone else get the feeling something might be lurking in the woodshed? It would be quite "2020" to see it sign off with a white Xmas and record snowfall.

I always try to enjoy days like these, and feel the warmth of the sun on my face. A good seven months until these conditions are feasible again, barring a very unusual change in the outlook.

Woken by the babies at 5, nipped outside and got my first taste of the "bloody hell that's a bit fresh" in a long time

Like when you feel the first warmth of the sun in late Feb, the current conditions are a sign of the impending changes to the seasons. Autumn is my least favoured season as I hate losing the long days, and it feels a long slog to outdoors weather again. But all in all, if you include Spring it hasn't been disastrous this year, just very erratic and hard to plan around. Hopefully, we can scrape some more life out of September before the nights draw in.

About half an hour after I posted it kicked off here

Well I think this sums it up nicely.

One heavy shower this morning with a few rumbles, but nothing since. Seems like an age since we had a decent storm here in Essex. Would've thought we'd be nailed on for it given the past week!