Number 23

Not enjoyed this summer on a personal note. Usable weather been at a premium with either miserable dull and cool or furnace like heat. Spring was actually better for outdoor activity but we were locked down for most of it! Used to enjoy weather extremes, now I have two young kids it just makes life difficult

Never usually interested in spring at this early stage, but I'm already looking forward to the first day I leave work at dusk rather than in the dark. That's always a nice turning point, but this year I'm counting the days down. Cannot wait for the warmer longer days given the gloom which has felt unending this season.

One of my earlier memories of the weather is walking to school with my mum that month, and the cold literally took my breath away. Cried my eyes out. I can still feel it now! Even as a fan of weather extremes, I'd not be in a hurry to experience that again. Feb 91 remains my personal favourite, as it was the perfect cold spell which didn't outstay its welcome. Who knows whether we'll see the likes of either again, 09/10 was incredible in its own way and reminded us that extremes can still occur, but any cold weather certainly feels like a relic of history in the context of this winter!

I wouldn't say the chances of something more seasonal emerging are over, but the envelope of time for significant and sustained blocking is already closing fast. The first half of Jan will almost certainly be chewed through in this flatter pattern, and to be honest there's nothing much suggesting we'll break out of it quickly after. This leaves us just a few short weeks to hit the bullseye in late Jan to mid Feb. Much later than that, and we're already starting to feel the effects of the longer days and higher sun. At that point I'm thinking of Spring, as down here in the South winter conditions generally start to get moderated by the turning seasons regardless of how good the synoptics are. I'm not fussed with snow-to-slush and marginal events, just makes the place look untidy! So winter far from over from a general cold perspective, but barring an amazing pivot in the output, we're getting close in terms of the kind of winter many on here would like IMO.

Blimey, this winter reminds me of when I first started watching the weather forums back in the early / mid 00's. Not even a toppler at 144 or FI jam to discuss at the moment though. At least the days are getting longer I suppose? ? The most unrelentingly boring output I can recall for many a year.

What a fantastic morning to wake up to weather-wise. Really got me in the mood to put up the decorations after moaning about Christmas songs being played on the radio all week. Will enjoy this week as much as I can, as I'm sure we'll have something more changeable back in time for next weekend.

The brutal parade of dreary days continuing for most of us. Would pay good money to have a few days of high pressure in charge.

I awoke to blue skies and thought it must be some kind of dream. Then I went outside to saturated ground, a nip in the air and realised, sadly, it's still October.

Not really. I enjoy severe cold spells, but that doesn't mean I can't enjoy other conditions, especially when they remind me that the seasons are about to turn after a very disappointing period. The output speaks for itself at the moment. No point lingering on the negatives.

The output might be suggesting it's time to file this winter away, preferably the circular file, but still plenty to be happy about here. Just enjoyed a coffee and a vape in the garden. Glorious morning out. Birds chirping, bright and a nip in the air I'll take second prize today!

For me it's not so much whether heavy snow can fall and settle in late Feb or early March (since it clearly can) but whether deep, lasting cold with minimal daytime thawing can emerge. The magic of the classic cold spells was not just in how much snow fell, but the short days with additional accumulations over a period of several days with the potential for more to come. We're now wandering into territory akin to being in the middle of Aug, sat under a trough, it's 18 degrees out, and waiting for a 30+ heatwave to develop in early September. It might, but it's becoming less than a puncher's chance with each passing set of outputs. I must say either way I'm excited about Spring, and the longer days are a nice tonic after a poor winter.

Absolute rubbish again for my location in Essex, although last night was kind of like watching the grand national when your horse is still running but the jockey fell off ages ago Mid-Feb is where I start looking for Spring conditions to develop in the modelling, so a couple of weeks left for me of this winter season. Been a sub-par one in general if nothing emerges soon. Glad some members got a covering!

Apparently I'll be getting four hours of moderate snow from 2am. Not convinced of that, but I'll definitely be awake to witness whatever transpires as I have a two day old baby, who evidently hates sleeping anywhere other than on me

Yeah Tuesday was naff, and tonight looks like it could be equally naff. We've been on the periphery of both mini-events this year! I'm expecting a few flakes at least, and maybe a surprise will emerge? Who knows, still keeping an eye on the radar for the day though .

Although a dusting looks likely for here, going to be fascinating watching this roll in today, who knows these things often throw up the odd curveball.

Looks a bit meh to me for Essex tonight, but always nice to see South Coast getting a bit of action

Yeah think we may get a bit of transition a bit later, but looks like we might crap out here tbh. Beehive Lane here.

Wetter than an otter's pocket in Chelmsford.

Certainly shows how far we have to go with the algorithms in the models as they stand, or perhaps the collection of starting data? Or both? Regardless of how chaotic it's been of late, it's also been an object lesson in the art of keeping powder dry when it comes to heralding the next ice age, and similarly declaring the end of winter! Great learning experience so far, and been great reading the resident experts trying to pick the bones out of this fiasco!

Thank you, I am indeed as it's our first! My wife keeps saying he's holding out for the snow lol. I'm actually more confident of a cold spell than I was on Friday; perhaps because I didn't want the cold during next week anyway! There's a definite sense of something brewing, at least to my untrained eye and others have explained this very well. Much rather see the general theme get picked up and then upgrade from 120 onwards than show it's hand at 168-192+ as we know how that usually ends!

Second bite seems the form horse now. I do agree with what an earlier poster mentioned, in that I'm more convinced that the second attempt will verify in some meaningful way. Anything after 4th of Feb is fine by me, as my son is due to be born today, and after last week's runs I had visions of sliding into the hospital sideways rather than driving. Would be great to see a spell like '91 at around the same time, which remains my fondest memory of severe winter conditions.

Ha! That sounds like something that'd happen to me! Thanks for the good wishes - 18z gfs is backing ECM for next week now, so if the UKMO gets on board overnight it's curry for dinner this weekend

Thank you, it's not bad news fortunately (awaiting the birth of our child) so could do without freezing conditions and icy roads!

I'm not overly pleased about the impending cold (if it happens) due to personal circumstances. Need to be ready for hospital runs over the coming two weeks. Seen so many scenarios at this range where the UKMO isn't aligned to ECM, and many times this has proven to be key when predicting the correct solution. Middle ground likely IMO so def colder, but probably not disruptive snowfall. That's also a bit of hopecasting....

Still stiflingly hot here in Chelmsford. Breeze starting to pick up slightly, and light cloud cover drifting in from the south. Just south of the amber warning here, but certainly feels like something stirring. Have put the plant pots under cover or I think they'll get a bashing later. Never thought I'd utter these words, but I cannot wait for the rain.