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BurwellWeatherWatch

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  1. BurwellWeatherWatch
    it may not be as daft as this simplistic comment suggests... GFS appears to have been having some modelling issues in 72-144 range of late which makes it output questionable esp in light of ECM et al. however historically ithas been good at spotting longer range trends. tonight we'd want it to be failing in shortterm and picking a winner in the longer term!
  2. BurwellWeatherWatch
    tried to reply to your request for more data in the model thread yesterday, but unfortunately it was deleted. Yes - fairly likely now that the overall stats of this winter (in CET and snowfall terms perhaps) will paint an average picture. My point (and one that Matt Hugo seemed to agree with) was that an average CET hid rather more extreme weather patterns that have taken place. There seem to have been very few average days. December, whilst not exceptionally cold in the first half, had some extremely cold nights. The rainfall of the second half was surely exceptional. January's CET - at the 8th (1 week in) was running at 8.0. Surely this is exceptional mild given that the warmest January ever was 7.5 in the 1910s. The fact that we may plausibly achieve the (supposedly unachievable a few years ago) sub-3 CET month 2 weeks later makes this even more extraordinary. The CET this month was running sky-high and has now been massacred down to what may look like an average month but has contained naerly a fortnight of mostly sub-zero temperatures (a rare beast in itself). Nightly mins of -12C would have been inconceivable a few years ago, but they seem to have been popping up all over the place in the last fortnight. Obviously a certain amount of IMBYism here, and I recognise that not everywhere has had exceptional weather all the time. But I would maintain that things have been much more interesting than the 'average-ness' of the stats will suggest. Best regards BWW
  3. BurwellWeatherWatch
    not sure I agree with this. I was thinking on the drive in this morning basically what Matt Hugo put - although he obviously expressed it far more scientifically! My thoughts were that although the CET is probably running about average(ish), there seem to have been very few average days since winter started. Some very low mins in early Dec at least IMBY (I remember driving in to minus 8 one day), then some exceptional rainfall. Then the exceptional mildness of early January, followed by what will be fairly widely a sub-zero fortnight. Minus 12 this morning I think counts as something to write home about! So - what may end up looking like a rather average winter statistically may hide the much more exciting reality that it has been. Back to the models - and this story of extremes could well continue in the next 2-3 weeks, with possibly another period of exceptional mild to get through, and then hints of something exceptionally cold if the glimmers of northerlys/greenland highs develop into anything more conclusive.
  4. BurwellWeatherWatch
    is there a little cheeky fella edging into the Thames Estuary now on the radar. could this merge into something more for us later?
  5. BurwellWeatherWatch
    just been for a walk round the village. Absolutely epic. The depth doesn't quite do justice to the sheer persistence of the snow today. It's still pounding down over 12 hours after starting. Is it really going to stop and fizzle out tonight...
  6. BurwellWeatherWatch
    even if a raging zonal flow does become implemented, it does not mean that winter is over. I'm not sure why all the manic depression tonight - we're in the middle of a serious cold spell and the garden is currently filling up with snow. ~Very likely that from next weekend we are going to enter a less severe/benign/milder phase but that does not lock in anything for February. I wonder if this is going to become a winter of three months, each roughly of two halves. 1st half of December - very cold; 2nd half of December - very mild 1st half of January - exceptionnally mild; 2nd half of January - exceptionally cold. February - which way round?
  7. BurwellWeatherWatch
    what an insightful piece of analysis! Yes - operationals coming together for something of a breakdown for next weekend, but that's about all we can say at the moment. May be mild, but more likely to be just less cold. For how long is the million dollar question. Operationals again flying around with all kinds of solutions. good to see some sort of tentative agreement around 120 even if it's not quite what we want. But wasn't the last time we had perfect agreement at 120 on December 6th...
  8. BurwellWeatherWatch
    maybe in some areas and had pretty little lying here. But (assuming we get to Friday) best part of 2 weeks at little more than zero, some staggering overnight lows, a gorgeous frost morning, several snowfalls - not sure that's 'pitiful' for the UK. Onwards and upwards - does look like the Atlantic will win out in some shape or form next weekend, but details are surely unclear. ECM and GEFs may help put a bit of flesh on the bone tonight but I don't think anything will be clearcut for a couple of days. In the meantime let's enjoy tomorrow, as I've enjoyed the sledging today on the inch of snow!
  9. BurwellWeatherWatch
    hi - just wondered if anyone had any good sledge-worthy snow/hills in the Cambs/West Suffolk area to recommend this morning? For the kids.. honest
  10. BurwellWeatherWatch
    ah, the view down my road tonight... happy days
  11. BurwellWeatherWatch
    of course it might become so, but it doesn't really look it on the models tonight - so that's a bit of misinformation!
  12. BurwellWeatherWatch
    from the forecast currently on the BBC Weather page (i.e. the video forecast - updated at lunchtime I think) - so current at the time of writing!
  13. BurwellWeatherWatch
    lovely stuff......
  14. BurwellWeatherWatch
    not sure it's worth panicking too much... yet! We have some amazing goodies on offer this week, that we would have given a back tooth for in December. However, I realise there is a touch of IMBYism in that comment, as Westerners may now not view the output with quite the same excitement. Yes, a concern to not have ECM fully on board, though I don't think it's worth getting hung up about a breakdown even before the most exciting period of winter begins. Cold blocks and milder air are always finely nuanced and notoriously hard to predict in terms of breakdown. I seem to remember that in 2009 the Met Office were saying "no sign of the end to cold" but by lunchtime that day the cold air was rapidly dissolving away. So: no point getting concerned yet. Let's see where the ECM sits in its ensembles in a few minutes but I won't be panicking because (a) plenty of interest in the short-term this week; (b if (a) does come true then we might appreciate a milder interlude (and as this fits perfectly with some of the experts' projections it has some credibility about it) and © it's almost certainly wrong in its detail anyway. Enjoy the output! Even if it all departs at 120/144, this sort of week is pretty rare in a UK winter and if we hadn't been spoiled with a few mega events in the last 4 years, we would have been absolutely drooling over the next few hours.
  15. BurwellWeatherWatch
    fantastic observation. Yes- this will hopefully be rseolved on the 12s but even then it could go to the wire on the 0zs. Hopefully another twitch or more from GFS this afternoon. I'd be inclined more to 70-30 in favour of ECM, particularly in light of latest METO thinking. Wonder if IB's family will be wandering through a snow drift next Wednesday in bermuda shorts and t-shirts But I don't think there'll be need for any humble pies or castigating of any models whatever the result: the differences are so microscale, that it's not a big deal in the grand scheme of things - just makes a huge deal for our weather in the UK!
  16. BurwellWeatherWatch
    I don't think GFS 00z Ops was particularly great looking at it, but the volatility between the Ops and GEFS ensembles (and flip-flopping between them) gives less credibilty to them overall. The ECM meanwhile appears to be firming up towards something very special...
  17. BurwellWeatherWatch
    I was being tongue in cheek myself... and Ian's comments are hugely valuable. But he did say it was Met Office informal briefing and put it in quote marks, hence my surprise at the choice of word!
  18. BurwellWeatherWatch
    come on GFS, be a good fellow and fall into line with the ECM as instructed earlier! Seriously, some great options on the table for this weekend, and next week just could be extraordinary. Did I really see the word "snowtastic" in a MetOffice release from Fergie in an earlier post (I realise they weren't subscribing to it necessarily, but just the use of the word was brilliant).
  19. BurwellWeatherWatch
    because the models are showing some strong credibility to a synoptic situation that *may* be supportive for snow. as you may be aware it is virtually impossible to forecast snow detail beyond about T24-48 so talking snow specifics at this stage is futile.
  20. BurwellWeatherWatch
    though probably best in landfill rubbish rather than recycle bin. i don't think the meto place any credence in cfs
  21. BurwellWeatherWatch
    this is what we need a bit more of
  22. BurwellWeatherWatch
    That's insane - at around day 5, 850s range from -7/8 to +10/11, and it doesn't seem to be one rogue run in either direction: have you ever seen that sort of spread within the so-called reliable timeframe/?
  23. BurwellWeatherWatch
    Exactly. Impossible to draw conclusions either way at the moment, but all the pessisim is probably due to everyone expecting a Jan 2010/ Dec 2010 'event' in every winter month. The models look pretty set on average/mild weather for at least the next week or so. This winter has been far from uninteresting so far. 12 days in, and (round here) there have been 5 or 6 frosts including about 3 really severe (picture postcard style!) ones. Temperature was minus 6 in the rural spots driving in this morning. Last couple of days must have been virtually ice days. We had a light covering of snow last week which lasted over 24 hours. Some atmospheric fogs. Maybe expectations have been pitched a bit high. So anything but boring so far. Nothing of great excitement on the way in the next week, though the chance for people to get out and about and do their Christmas shopping in relatively mild conditions might be a good thing. Have a hunch - based upon nothing really other than experience - that in about a week's time, there will again be interest in the 120-192 timeframes appearing.
  24. BurwellWeatherWatch
    The fact that ECM shows it as a possibility tonight, means it is just that. The sheer number of possibilities being ping-ponged around the models in the last 24-48 hrs is really baffling and does show just how the UK's weather can range anywhere between 2 extremes with only the most finely nuanced adjustments on the global scale. So don't believe anyone who pronounces the next week with 'high confidence'. It really is open to any eventuality, though it's clearly odds-on for the Atlantic to make some kind of incursion, however small or large. To what extent is the big question. Great to see the model thread a bit calmer today, and some posters who have previously shown the most entrenched bias, acknowledging the range of options on the table by next weekend. In a funny kind of way I feel a bit more relaxed now the mega-E'ly has been downgraded and can just sit back and enjoy what is unfolding. December is far from written-off!
  25. BurwellWeatherWatch
    i think it's one of those overused catch-all terms that is used too often without much clarity! We tend to have a word-of-the-year that dominates the model output. Faux cold was order-of-the-day a few years ago. Shortwaves was the obsession last year. Kamchatkan ridge looked like taking over the place a couple of weeks ago.
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