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BurwellWeatherWatch

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  1. BurwellWeatherWatch
    The models have shown a broad range of possibilities and outcomes - with some very appealing solutions close to the mid term. It would be disingenuous to say that everything has been in outlier FI... Do you exclude August from the possibility of summery weather too?
  2. BurwellWeatherWatch
    At least it would be going east to west then
  3. BurwellWeatherWatch
    absolutely! The thread has, for the most part, been extremely civilised and informative this season. There will always be a smattering of the pompous, the 'told-you-sos' and a few trolling for a reaction - but in the main it has been great. There is definitely enough uncertainty from the models and the various experts to maintain interest at the moment - nice for once not to be staring down the barrel of certain zonality in December.
  4. BurwellWeatherWatch
    maybe this is the wrong thread to discuss in then?
  5. BurwellWeatherWatch
    that sounds quite pleasant, if somewhat unseasonal. But again I am struggling to see why the next four weeks are automatically written off, esp with such model volatility in the last few days. i think anything beyond later next week very much up for grabs.
  6. BurwellWeatherWatch
    yes this should be pretty cold at the surface. nothing spectacular showing yet but baby steps in the right direction. It is good that winter in some kind of form is back on the cards for next week - particularly after we were told that cold was definitely impossible before the end of January and probably impossible for the remainder of winter. I think I even saw the suggestion last week that we'd never again get cold weather in this country!
  7. BurwellWeatherWatch
    Average July CET 16.6 Average August CET 16.3 So hopefully nonsense about it's not possible to be hot in August / cold in February can be laid to rest?
  8. BurwellWeatherWatch
    Lol, other than the UK's hottest day has occurred in August, and early aug normally peak of summer heat. But guess you were just on the wind up anyway!
  9. BurwellWeatherWatch
    transitioning to snow in East Cambs now
  10. BurwellWeatherWatch
    might be a good time to refer back to this excellent post from last night - as predicted we are getting towards 4pm and there are the clamours of "but it's raining"....
  11. BurwellWeatherWatch
    isn't it a bit too chilly-looking for you to be out?
  12. BurwellWeatherWatch
    Onwards to the GFS and icon 18zs If you can't face that then there is some dyer output on BBC1 at the same time!
  13. BurwellWeatherWatch
    fingers crossed then that there are no future attempts to refine the science of long range forecasting and we can return to looking out of the window!
  14. BurwellWeatherWatch
    i think Catacol wrote a detailed response to these "arguments" last night - but I guess it's like shouting into an echo chamber!
  15. BurwellWeatherWatch
    i don't think you can reason with those who post entirely by their emotion rather than on the basis of any science. things are certainly looking a fair bit watered down for next week on the basis of (some) of the 0zs and the available 6zs but I don't think the bigger picture has suddenly changed. From past observations of this, there has often been a weekend wobble prior to a cold spell. No real scientific basis for that other than the models may have over-reacted to a particular signal. Either way, it's a great opportunity to learn more through unusual synoptics which could still all give us the weather we want! How many points can we learn, as opposed to score?
  16. BurwellWeatherWatch
    aside from the issue of giving any credence to a D16 GFS chart, much of the UK seems to be bathed in pretty cold 850s (apart from a bit of a warm waft over NW Ireland) - so I don't think it would be warm?
  17. BurwellWeatherWatch
    in Cambridgeshire - sometime mid-late July 2015 - absolutely incredible storm throughout the night with continuous thunder/lightning and biblical rain. As a young boy in Derby - 9 July 1981 - I think this was noted for its significance in a weather book I once read. Of all time/anywhere .... in Malaysia a few weeks ago. Extraordinary and they seem to get it on a daily basis which may slightly spoil the novelty factor.
  18. BurwellWeatherWatch
    borderline FI...?
  19. BurwellWeatherWatch
    fantastic walk out and about tonight. Totally eerie over the snowfields and a cold - combined with the windchill - like I have barely ever felt. For the last 200yds I felt the urge to experience it without my hat and gloves. The windchill on your face and head was extreme. An easterly gale blowing falling snow into your face. Pretty rare for this country and the combination of snow and cold for this area easily exceeds 2010 (which was pretty snowless here). Extraordinary - have tried to make the most of it tonight - may not get this again within 10 years. It's good to be back in the electric blanket again now though!
  20. BurwellWeatherWatch
    i don't think it's barely started though? uppers of -17 will be crossing the country in the next 48 hours, I think that's about a once in 20+ year event? Some places will get lots of snow; others less so. but to write it off on the first day seems odd to say the least
  21. BurwellWeatherWatch
    a nice little smattering on the Cambs/Suffolk border but hoping for a bit more tonight!
  22. BurwellWeatherWatch
    amazing charts again this afternoon - run out of superlatives! Incredible cross model support now for something quite special early next week and who knows where it might go from there. Hopefully this will lay to rest once and for all the old claim that "it can't get cold in late February" due to solar energy / longer days etc (given that March 2013 seemingly didn't put the claim to rest!)
  23. BurwellWeatherWatch
    Unbelievable cold run. The GFS is the gift that keeps on giving. Maybe just a tad slower on 18z but cleaner advection, amazing. When can we tell the muggles?
  24. BurwellWeatherWatch
    some nice charts tonight and could be some good surprises around this weekend. The route to cold and snow was never smooth for the UK but a difference of 100/200 miles is so tiny globally but very meaningful on the ground. On this basis, it's strange to hear people saying "GFS is cannon fodder" or "ECM now has egg all over its face". THe models are just playing around with solutions that are just really tiny on a global scale. Looks like it could stay pretty cold into next week. Some strange trollcasts on here tonight about zonality looking odds-on for next week. Of course it may happen but I don't see any particular evidence to back this up. Great start to winter!
  25. BurwellWeatherWatch
    yes it was very misleading - but i suspect more for the purpose of attracting attention rather than in respect of being scientific or analytical. In these situations where you have a range of solutions at relatively close range, it normally seems best to assume the middle ground between them will probably play out. That normally tends to be dull/non-descript but in this case could be rather good??
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