DR Hosking

just looked again at the figures and compared them to the last 10 years 1996 - 2006. The last 10 years have been on average 0.6 degrees warmer than the 30 year average. With only december actually averaging below the 30 year average, and only by 0.02 degrees! The other 11 months were all considerably above average with the Septembers being the worse, September 96-06 averaging 1.02 degrees warmer then 71-00 period. other particularly warm months are february, june, august and october, all averaging 0.7 degrees or more than the 71-00 average. The months that seem least effected by warming were January, July and as mentioned december, all within 0.5 degrees of the average. Interestingly despite the warm/hot summers of recent years July seems to have warmed less then any month other than december, only being 0.35 above average. Anyway, I will stop my ramblings now, just thought some of you may be interested.

apologies for that Stu, your right, just looked at it again! for those interested here are the 71 - 2000 figures courtesy of Hadley. YEAR JAN FEB MARCH APRIL MAY JUNE JULY AUG SEPT OCT NOV DEC annual 1971 4.5 4.5 4.9 7.9 11.6 12.4 16.9 15.6 14 11.3 6 6.6 9.68 1972 3.9 4.3 6.5 8.2 10.5 11.8 15.6 15.1 11.7 10.6 6.3 5.8 9.19 1973 4.5 4.3 6.2 7 11.4 14.8 15.6 16.5 14.3 9 6 4.9 9.54 1974 5.9 5.4 5.8 8.2 11 13.9 15.2 15.2 12.1 7.8 6.8 8.1 9.62 1975 6.8 4.4 4.8 8.3 9.9 14.7 17.4 18.7 13.5 9.9 6.3 5.3 10 1976 5.9 4.5 4.8 8.1 12.1 17 18.7 17.6 13.4 10.6 6.3 2 10.08 1977 2.8 5.2 6.9 7.2 10.6 12.2 15.9 15.2 13.3 11.8 6.6 6.1 9.48 1978 3.4 2.8 6.7 6.5 11.7 13.7 14.8 15 14.2 11.9 8.5 3.9 9.42 1979 -0.4 1.2 4.7 7.8 10 13.9 16.2 14.9 13.5 11.3 6.8 5.8 8.81 1980 2.3 5.7 4.7 8.8 11.2 13.8 14.7 15.9 14.7 9 6.6 5.6 9.42 1981 4.9 3 7.9 7.8 11.2 13.2 15.5 16.2 14.5 8.6 7.8 0.3 9.24 1982 2.6 4.8 6.1 8.6 11.6 15.5 16.5 15.7 14.2 10.1 8 4.4 9.84 1983 6.7 1.7 6.4 6.8 10.3 14.4 19.5 17.3 13.7 10.5 7.5 5.6 10.03 1984 3.8 3.3 4.7 8.1 9.9 14.5 16.9 17.6 13.7 11.1 8 5.2 9.73 1985 0.8 2.1 4.7 8.3 10.9 12.7 16.2 14.6 14.6 11 4.1 6.3 8.86 1986 3.5 -1.1 4.9 5.8 11.1 14.8 15.9 13.7 11.3 11 7.8 6.2 8.74 1987 0.8 3.6 4.1 10.3 10.1 12.8 15.9 15.6 13.6 9.7 6.5 5.6 9.05 1988 5.3 4.9 6.4 8.2 11.9 14.4 14.7 15.2 13.2 10.4 5.2 7.5 9.77 1989 6.1 5.9 7.5 6.6 13 14.6 18.2 16.6 14.7 11.7 6.2 4.9 10.5 1990 6.5 7.3 8.3 8 12.6 13.6 16.9 18 13.2 11.9 6.9 4.3 10.63 1991 3.3 1.5 7.9 7.9 10.8 12.1 17.3 17.1 14.7 10.2 6.8 4.7 9.52 1992 3.7 5.4 7.5 8.7 13.6 15.7 16.2 15.3 13.4 7.8 7.4 3.6 9.86 1993 5.9 4.6 6.7 9.5 11.4 15 15.2 14.6 12.4 8.5 4.6 5.5 9.49 1994 5.3 3.2 7.7 8.1 10.7 14.5 18 16 12.7 10.2 10.1 6.4 10.24 1995 4.8 6.5 5.6 9.1 11.6 14.3 18.6 19.2 13.7 12.9 7.7 2.3 10.52 1996 4.3 2.5 4.5 8.5 9.1 14.4 16.5 16.5 13.6 11.7 5.9 2.9 9.2 1997 2.5 6.7 8.4 9 11.5 14.1 16.7 18.9 14.2 10.2 8.4 5.8 10.53 1998 5.2 7.3 7.9 7.7 13.1 14.2 15.5 15.9 14.9 10.6 6.2 5.5 10.34 1999 5.5 5.3 7.4 9.4 12.9 13.9 17.7 16.1 15.6 10.7 7.9 5 10.63 2000 4.9 6.3 7.6 7.8 12.1 15.1 15.5 16.6 14.7 10.3 7 5.8 10.3 total 126 127.1 188.2 242.2 339.4 422 494.4 486.4 411.3 312.3 206.2 151.9 292.26 average 4.20 4.24 6.27 8.07 11.31 14.07 16.48 16.21 13.71 10.41 6.87 5.06 9.74

got a query for those in the Know, according to Philip Eden & the Hadley centre the June average temperature should be 14 degrees. Am I correct in thinking that this is worked out using a 30 year mean from 1971 to 2000 ? If so im not sure how this is the case as looking at the hadley figures for that period they average out at 14.6 degrees?! Anyone can help me with this, 14 degrees seems very low if the 30 year average is used, or am I barking up completely the wrong tree!

coldest night of the month last night in this part of Northants, down to 6.4 degrees. Highs of 15 or 16 should bring the cet down a notch or 2. Here the average monthly temp stands at 15.3 as of yesterday, likely to fall further with today. This is only 0.3 above the average for June here.

Last winter may have been mild but for me in my little bit of Northants it was actually the smowiest for about 10 years! We had 4 separate periods of snowfall, more than any recent years. OK 2 of them were not that significant and short lived but the the Snow we had in mid february was more than we have had for many a year, about 6 inches of undrifted snow and 12 inches in drifted areas. It hung aroung for a few days too. So for me I would be happy with more winters like last winter, last years cold winter only produced a couple of pathetic snow events, it was cold but also clear and dry.

lates met office forecast: Forecast for the remainder of Summer 2007 Temperature The Met Office continues to predict a high probability that mean temperatures for the remainder of Summer 2007 will be above 1971-2000 averages over much of Europe including the UK. June temperatures so far have been above normal over most of western Europe. For the UK, despite an unsettled start to summer in many areas, the mean temperature to 24 June is 1.5 °C above the 1971-2000 average. Although some warm and sunny weather is likely, forecasting models continue to signal that weather patterns of the type that can bring particularly hot and sunny spells to the UK will be fewer than in some recent hot summers (e.g. 2003 and 2006). This may be partly a consequence of the expected development of moderate or strong La Niňa conditions in the tropical Pacific Ocean. Precipitation Many regions of the UK have experienced well above normal rainfall during June. Indications for the remainder of summer favour average or drier than average conditions over central and southern Europe and wetter than average over parts of northern Europe. This suggests that in the UK a trend towards average rainfall is more likely for southern regions, while average or above average rainfall is more likely in the north. cant see anywhere here where it mentions a 1 in 6 chance of a hot summer?? Al it says is that it will be above average for temperature. As we have seen for June which has been well above average temperature wise, this doesn't mean long hot summer, just that it will be milder than normal, indeed with the projection of average or above average rainfall you could say that a long hot spell is less likely. As already discussed on this forum it is now rare for the CET average for a month to be below average, so I cant see anything in this forecast other than the summer will be normal.

Apparently Cairngorm had a dusting of the white stuff above the Ptarmigan yesterday! Although the webcam was conveniently out of action so couldn't take a look.

OK, thats what I wrote, wasen't what I meant though. Anyway, after a morining oh heavy rain here it seems to be brightening. Still reckon we will not achiesve 25 degrees this month, which im actually fairly pleased about as Im not too fond of hot weather, the odd day or 2 is fine but not weeks on end like last year. Nearly into July and its odd to think that last year July's average daily maximum was 26.8 degrees at Pitsford! Wonder what the odds are of this July not actually having a day where the temperature reaches last years average maximum! slim I would think! Anyway I will stop rambling now,no doubt it just a matter of time before we hit 25 degrees and probably 30 degrees too so Im enjoying this cooler weather while it lasts!

im not saying that nowhere in Northants or central England has hit 25 degrees, only that it hasen't here. We seem to have been stuck under fairly perpetual cloud or heavy showers, also got 230% of the average rainfall for the month, not including todays deluge so its obviously been a poor month locally if your looking for hot, dry sunny conditions.

thats from the official proper weather station at Pitsford hall, not AWS. They only have records back to 99 and the last year 25 degrees wasen't reached by now was 1999 when it was not reached until the 6th July. Possibility we might beat that this year looking at the forecast. Other than 99 the latest 25 degrees was brokes was 7th june in 2004 and the earliest the 4th May last year. So it might not be exceptional but its certainly unusual for this part of the world not to have hit it by now.

Weve not recorded 25 degrees yet this year in Northants. Highest has been 24.6 doesn't look like we will this month and the first week of July either. Not sure if this is some kind of record but certainly over the last few years weve recorded days of 27 or 28 by now and the odd 30 degrees too. I would say its fairly uncommon given our central location. I will take a look through the records to see when the last time we didnt record 25 degrees by the end of June was.

I reckon 15.2 or 15.3 are deffinately achievable, if the forecasts are correct then lower 15's are looking more likely than higher 15's, looks like there could be 4 or 5 days where highs struggle to get to 15 or 16 degrees and lows of 7,8 or 9 overnight. This could cool the CET substancially.

Sorry John, im In South Northamptonshire, the data I use is from my local weather station in Pitsford just north of Northampton.

just totalled the rainfall here for the month so far, were already at 120mm! again over 200% of the monthly average and with still 10 days of the month to go. Ok nearly 70mm of this came in one stormy 24 hour period, but its continuing the trend of wet months. We are now totalling 440 mmm for the year which doesn't sound too bad but were in one of the dryer areas of the country, our average yearly rainfall is 620mm. So we have already had over 70% of the annual average rainfall in less than 6 months. Looking like a wet year in this part of the world!

Anyone got any predictions on how wet this year could be? Where I am in central England so far this year has been very wet, the first 5 months have had the following rainfall totals: January - 66.4mm 126.9% February - 69.8mm 185.2% March - 52.3mm 116.2% April 1.6mm 3 % May 130.3mm 261.6% With the noteable exception of April, every month this year has recieved totals substantially above normal, in the case of may getting on to 3 times the normal. With June so far following in the same vane here I wondered if anyone had any predictions on this being a top 10 wet year in some places.

Got big storm now in south northants, lots of Thunder, lightening and hammering down at the moment, like a wall of water!

not much here but plenty of discussion on winterhighland here: http://www.winterhighland.info/forum/read.php?2,76649,page=3

I am right in thinking that the 3 stations for measuring CET are all in urban areas and as such the average could be a fair bit higher than in rural areas within the CET zone? I expect rural areas could be as much as a degree different, mainly because of lower night time temperatures. For example if you see the forecast for the bbc temperatures are always for urban areas, so they have been consistantly giving temperatures at nightime for my area of 13,14 or 15 degrees for the last week or more, my local weather station which is rural has been recording nightime temperatures between 9 and 12 degrees for this period.

Thanks Stu, didn't realise the amount above average wis worked out on a daily basis, yes I suppose our temps could have been suppressed by the cloud we have had.

Im still suprised that the CET is so high, its over a degree higher than here in Northants. Also it says its +2.8 above average, how can this be when the 30 year average for this part of Northants is 15 degrees, and we are only 0.3 degrees above it. If thats correct than the June CET average is 13.4 degrees, a full 1.6 degrees lower than the 30 year average than whaer I am, right in the middle of the cet zone?

not sure why the CET is so high presently? Im in Northamptonshire, right in the middle of the CET zone and our local weather station (proper one not automatic) up to today is currently showing an average of 15.3 degrees. How can this be? nearly a degree below the CET! Doesn't give me much confidence in the CET being that accurate or relevant!

a cool and very wet May here in Northamptonshire. Average temperature 12.1 which is 0.4 degrees bellow the 30 year average. Rainfall 130.3mm !! Thats 261.6% of the average rainfall for the month!! All the more extreme given that in April our rainfall total was 1.6mm just 3% of the average. Also notable by the fact that the average maximum temperature in May was 16.2 degrees where the April average was 17.1 degrees! Also the average temperature of 12.1 is only 0.5 degrees warmer than Aprils average of 11.6 degrees! So all in all some pretty interesting stuff in this part of the world over the last couple of months.

Here in Northamptonshire the MAY CET is currently -0.1 bellow 30 year average, but the rainfall is 111mm and counting! Thats 220% of average, it was running at 140% even before the weekends delluge. So a very wet, average temperatured May for us here.

Here in Northants mean is currently 12 degrees, thats 0,5 degrees below 30 year average. Rainfall is at 137 % for the month and counting, raining most of today too. Thats 4 of the 5 months of this year well above average for rainfall.

"Its certainly hard to imagine a run of 5 cesecutive below average months now. Its hard to imagine 1 below average month, really." Well my local weather station in Northants recorded five months below average in a row from November 05 - March 06. Thats not exactly ages ago!