DR Hosking

well ive been mulling over this for a week or so now and come to the conclusion that I did a week ago! Think it will be warmer than July, but not too warm, more or less average. So I will go for 16.8 degrees which is basically the average over the last 10 years. Think it will be there or there abouts, although I went for 16.4 in July and though that was conservatively cool, so see what I know!

OK I apologise, just looked very high too me, im in the centre of the country where the highest temperatures are usually reached and thats 4 degrees warmer than we have had. Also ive noticed down here that my local station has a full official stevenson screen weather station, but also the same site has an automatic weather station, I can say without doubt that the automatic weather station on warm sunny days is generally a couple of degrees or more higher than the actual recorded high from the official station at the same site, the same can be said for cool nights. So generally I take any maximum reading from automatic stations with a pinch of salt and prefer to use official stations when looking at stats.

Some Dodgy Temps on here, Red Raven, 28.2 on the 11th of june! Ive looked at a couple of weather stations in cumbria and the warmest they came up with is 23.6 on the 9th of June, thats sounds much more realistic to me. The highrst weve had is 24.6 on the 9th of June. This is the first time in many a year that 25 degrees has not been broken by the end of July, by this time last year we had broken 25 degrees by well over 20 times!

For those of you interested, there are some new pictures of Garbh Choire Mor here, looks like this years patch is a decent size when compared to the same time last year: http://www.winterhighland.info/forum/read.php?2,76649,page=5 sorry go to the final page of the topic for latest pictures!

I don't really see your logic here, you may be right in saying that the 1961 0 91 period was closer to the "Cool Temperate" climate but that climate is always on the change, currently for the warmer, so comparing too it is getting less and less relevant. I think im right in thinking that there is a 5 year lag in the official climate stats so that in 2015 we will then be using 1981 - 2010 stats to compare against. This will obviously mean because of the warming of the last 20 years until we reach 2015 and start to use those stats we will be less & less likely to have temperatures comparable to the 1971 -2000 averages and the 1961 - 1990 figures will become increasingly irrelevent. At somke point you have to face facts that our climate is warmer than it was 30 years ago and use the most relevant dataset i.e the official 30 year mean.

yeah but were not in 1960 - 1991 are we? Why does it matter? 1971 - 2000 is what we should be comparing too surely?

BBC are warning of another inch of rain over southern and central areas for tomorrow, so with further showers too until the end of the month the only way is up that list of June - July, and May to August for that matter.

Yes, 16 degrees will not be reached. I cant see it going above 15.5 personally, looking at the forecast I think 15.3 or 15.4 will be the final outcome. Highs for the rest of the month in the late teens or early 20's and lows between 8 and 12. Anyway, whatever it turns out to be, temperature wise for me its been a good month, Being an Asthma and Eczma sufferer last summers heat was a real nightmare for me. OK we could have done without all the rain for it to be a good month. I suspect if it had been as hot as last year all those people moaning about this July's weather would also be moaning that the heat is too much!

Agreed, I saw the Beeb blaming La Nina last night! Also noticed the Government and the media were quick to jump on the Global Warming band warming, blaming it for the floods! Obviously the floods are nothing to do with particular synoptics and rainfall patterns/ location then! So I assume the 1947 flood was due to global warming and not the weather then? Also the winter of 1963 must have been caused by global warming then rather than the weather synoptics! I would have thought the beeb would have more sense.

On Saturday we recorder 8.8 minimum, much lower than average, ok were not in the CET but only just outside.

what a difference a day makes, Thursday was our hottest day of the month 23.9 degrees, Friday unsurprisingly was our coolest, a max of 14.6!

yep, judging by the radar and athe quantity of rain falling from the sky here all morning the May, June, July record will be broken today, and probably by some margin, especially with nearly 2 weeks of this wather to come! Think we will be in top 10 June - July too, maybe top five. The last 3 months have really been remarkable in this part of the world for rainfall!

What about last years Anomaly of + 3.2 then?

yeah, did say in CET Zone. Anyway, regardless as to weather its a turning point or not, Id much rather have summers like this year than last years! I would be happy with a few days where we reach 25 degrees but nothing near 30 degrees. Basically average would be fine by me!

Thanks for that Firefly, you can buy back copies of Weather for a few quid so I will do that again, just wondered if it was readily available anywhere else. Out of interest how many of you get out and about to research the snowpatches? Are you out all summer or is it more of a case of a check in September followed by visits to known patches in October to see how they are fairing? Didn't think last year would have had any surviving, suprised it made it into October! Incidentally when is the cut off date for Survival, is there a point at which in general the weather is sufficiently cold that any remaining snow will survive through to first substancial winter snows regardless of weather conditions? I ask because I seem to remember last November being very mild, I could have envissaged that if any snow did survive last year until November that it may well have dissapeared in November given how mild and snowless it was when it would normally have ben expected to survive after this date?

could be a bit wet then tomorrow in my part of the world if this comes off! http://85.214.49.20/wz/pics/MS_-152_ens.png

Quote Paul Cox "If I was in the mood to count I would say this is the highest number of posts in a day for a Summer thread. I will keep this simple. What goes up must come down. Why not now? This is the first summer in quite a few years that the night temps have been so low. People have talked about the average temps not being that much lower than recent summers but I bet the stats would show that the average night time temperatures have been much lower than recent norms and that applies to this April as well, although I could be incorrect here." Im afraid your wrong about the night time minimum Paul, the reverse is actually true, the last 2 months and this month so far have seen milder than average nights (at least in the CET zone) and cooler day time maximums than average.

looks like plenty of rain then, given the fact that were only just over half way through the month it looks like the May, June, July record is certainly attainable, and may be breached by some way.

reckon your onto something there, no expert bit I just get a feeling that the next 2 or 3 months will be around average temperature wise, maybe slightly above average but I reckon each of the next 3 or 4 months will be within 1 degree of average, either above or below, just a hunch though! summer blizzard, according to Hadley: January + 3.3 February + 2.0 March + 1.6 April + 3.3 May + 0.7 June + 0.9 Paul is right in saying that since May the temperatures have been moderating.

Im an avid watcher of snowpatch survival in the Highlands, as firefly points out patches survive in most years, predominantly the post persistant patch is in the corrie Garbh Coire Mor on Braeriach in the cairngorms which survives most years, having said that the warmth of the last decade accompanied with less snowfall in winter has meant that survival has become increasingly border line. Ive some statistics somewhere I could dig out on survival. Firefly, you mention you help Adam Watson with his report for weather magazine. Ive got a question regarding the report for last year, usually they are published in May or June I think, but ive been looking at the contents for the magazine for the last few months and there has yet to be a report published for last year. do you know when it might be published or have I missed it? Also is there any other source for this report other than Weather magazine? Or is there any similar reports or stats on the web?? Ive tried in vane to hunt some down. Does Adam or his department have a web site??

yes but we are no more than 10 miles outside it (in W Northants) so should be fairly closely in line with it. just pointing out that the last 3 night have been very warm, if we have 15.5 degrees here I cant see it being much different in the middle of the CET zone 30 miles away.

last 3 nights min in Northamptonshire 14.1, 14.5 and this morning 15.5. Cant see a big change over the next couple of days so I can see the CET rising until at least mid week, even with maxes of 21 degrees. After that looks like cooler minama and chances of falling CET.

Hadley now showing 16 degrees to the 3rd July. Sounds about right, cant see it changing much after today (maybe falling further) plus the days ahead look very similar to what we are having temperature wise. So wouldn't be supprised if were on 16 degrees or there abouts in a weeks time, probably even cooler rather than warmer.

I see what your saying Stu, just a bit of an odd way round to work it out!

agrred west is best. According to Hadley the cummulitative CET so far this year (first 6 months) is 58.2 degrees to reach a CET of 11, 11 x 12 months = 132 total degrees. 132 minus 58.2 degrees for the first 6 months leaves us with 73.8 degrees to play with for the remaining 6 months. If you add up the averages for the remaining 6 months it comes to 68.8. So 73.8 minus 68.8 degrees leaves us with 5 degrees to find above average for 6 months. So if the next 6 months are an average of 0.8333 degrees above average then we will hit 11 degrees cet.