bluearmy

Splits now showing by T108 .......propagation probability must surely be resolved by the end of the weekend ......

We keep debating Chris Fawkes ..... it would be better if he would come on somewhere like this and contribute but we know that , just like fergie, he would be tempted to share something he shouldn’t and that would be the end ......anyway, mr Fawkes would surely only be tweeting gefs strat data if eps agreed with it ....he can’t tweet eps charts

a nice wedge on gfsp .......

I think we may have ‘lift off’ today .... if so, it’s perhaps 36 hours later than I expected .... of course the more interesting gefs may be gone by the morning but the improved gfsp is stark !

I can’t see past day 11 but the difference at that timescale from previous output is startling to our west with large low anomoly withdrawn back to nw Atlantic and gentle high anomoly replacing ....assuming that low will trend east as the run progresses .....

Just seen up to day 11 ... ongoing - the control undercuts

Can’t - weatherbell hasn’t updated .... wasn’t a leading question ....

Has anyone seen the extended eps??

If only we could have an MJO in phase 7 or 8 to take advantage of this ...........

don’t agree - the 500hpa models were showing the affects of the feb warming five days before it occurred. All the atmospheric levels are part of the same model Yes they are but that doesn’t mean they are good at the interaction between the upper levels and into the trop Not wrong Reversal winds in the trop - yes, but not in the strat where they have already reversed high up

I’m only Shirley on a Sunday afternoon ......... impossible to see downwellings on a 51 member mean several weeks out ...... the expected long range model pattern evident (as it has been for a few runs now) ....... if there is a two week standard on offer then hopefully it will show by next Thursday evenings output. Exeter should have firmed up on that by then In any case

I believe you need to be looking at the NH for conclusive signs of a trop response ....... the euro picture could simply be amplifications due to other factors inc the general slowing of zonal flow over the past week

Yes! Spv already displaced and will be split at 10 hpa by jan 4th ....SSW due 31st/1st .....the question is how long will downwelling take and whether it will affect the trop

Haven’t seen the extended eps .(apart from the chart jukes posted) ........but the gems and gefs are similar. I was less taken by the updated 46 than recently which seemed a slow burner sinking jet to a good place late jan (which doesn’t fit the metoffice forecast which included the words frost and fog for mid jan onwards - if glosea begins to look like the ec46 then expect more caveats on that wording) This mornings runs are a bit meh ......... if the slowing/reversing strat is to have an effect then the amplification should be increasing rather than swinging back and forth ........probably best to give ecm op another shot at keeping that upper ridge with enough latitude. Finally, just a note on Steve’s posts yesterday evening where he references the building Atlantic ridge as being a QTR ...... this isn’t the same type of QTR that I have been speaking of. mine (and i believe the generally accepted use) is where the reversal wave downwells quickly through the layers and leads to a notable split trop vortex (and likely neg AO) within a few days of the reversal at 10hpa. The standard downwelling will then still follow at 10/14 days and beyond.

It’s sudden because the temperature rises by a large amount within a couple days ......... we are but a small island ........

Gfs finally sniffing a response late on (looking at the hemispheric pattern it is )? the 46 is a story of a slowly sinking jet across the six weeks ....progressively colder as the period goes on with n blocking becoming evident in week 3 (to our n and nw) Imo, the reversal plays no sig part in this run ...... it could be looking even more blocked come next Monday evenings update

WeatherBell always a bit slow updating ........ before eleven I hope .....

I have more respect for gfs than I used to ...... but there are times when you need to know how/when to use it ..... similar with the ecm

Bit less amplitude.......... bored already ......

Certainly a less vigorous Atlantic on the 12z ecm suite .... we still end up with a broad low euro mslp anomoly ........but the clusters will reveal more ......the end week 2 on both gems and eps look unsettled with a capital U ....a few well placed wedges wouldn’t go amiss ........

Day 6 is about as far as we can reasonably look on the ops ...... but the ec day 7 is big upstream imo - can we see a change with that Canadian vortex push of low heights into the n Atlantic .........

Meteogroup but I’m sure they receive glosea data ....fergie has referenced it and he also works for the beeb .....

One would expect Fawkes knows what glosea is seeing....... however, the Exeter long ranger won’t remove the two week downwelling from its output. (Unless it’s MJO led)

One would hope he isn’t just referencing a qtr but the probably absence of any downwelling wave in jan we can all see the lack of a QTR across the modelling

One assumes the ec agrees .... he cannot tweet ec data