bluearmy

A little wider and more notably, it seems to immediately downwell to 30 and 50hpa at the end of the run

this run is growing a big arctic high the other side of the vortex ……. noticed that on any other charts recently ????????

can ec op keep the polar vortex lobes apart day 8 ???? answer - not really …….

i reckon member 2 is a QTR ….. not sure any of the others display the signature …. plenty more latitude on the blocks around the NH than seen recently and the hemispheric pattern late on is headed in the right direction ……….

One chart is from the gfs op and the other from the gefs ensembles .....

Better run in the strat from gfs op the scandi ridge development is my favoured route based on previous eps suites ..... that gfs op looks plausible to me but perhaps a bit rushed any qtr from the ssw could change this scenario Note the gem op driving an Alaskan ridge at the time that the vortex is displaced and the reversal is about due to commence

No - he is referencing the eps mean - my chart is the ec op (as are the Berlin ones also posted )

Not an opinion ...... FWIW, my opinion is that the run would have created a proper split by day 12 bit I’ve seen eps ens mean charts showing something akin to that chart I posted by day 15

It likely doesn’t, could be really high up but isn’t at 10hpa

To me - that says they are expecting the ssw could deliver a downwelling neg AO phase mid jan onwards and are covering that base

The gfsp really not a surprise given the gefs - just a more amplified suite in the Atlantic/euro sector ..... will it become the way forward for the new year period ?? Nothing in that run is a consequence of upcoming events in the strat .......

Quite a lot of odd posts on here this morning - in the famous words of mr b fawlty. - ‘what did you expect to see from a Torquay hotel window’ ............ no one has been touting the ‘hanging gardens of Babylon’ so why some are expecting to see them is quite odd what is currently showing is that the ecm spreads can often be a better tool than the ecm clusters in the 7/10 day period - the upper ridge looks to be a little more suppressed than was showing a few days ago with the jet running across to our north

Well it isn’t really as it’s not reasonable to expect to see a QTR on a model run that doesn’t actually show a reversal (gfs) and the downwelling wave takes around two weeks so would be out of range anyway .....

probably not quite - each ec op strat profile is less amplified than the crazy one from tuesday’s 12z run ....the reversal is now fairly steady at late 28th dec - could well end up 29th. The split height profile around 10hpa Imprinted onto the trop isn’t particularly exciting for us - could work but one would hope the one much higher up as per your post would be over time ......... by Saturday, we should just about be able to see if any ec ops are running a QTR at day 10 ......if the NCEP suite in general is sniffing this then charts around 3rd jan onwards might show a big NH split and fast neg AO response....... you would expect the odd gefs member to be on that failing a QTR, downwelling shoud be around 12th jan onwards so nothing likely to show on fi gefs until around Xmas/ Boxing Day (thats assuming the op run actually shows a reversal - the 00z doesn’t ) there are yoru timescales ......anything else is simply the trop being the trop .....note that once the upper strat does go into reverse, we have seen a step change in the extended ens modelling as the starting data includes the reverse flow .... it shouldn’t make a difference but it has in the past

The temp isn’t what’s important now imo - the eps show the same split as the op ....... and the tech ssw

Mike - yesterday’s ec 12z (ref those Berlin charts) was 36/48 hours ahead of today’s output re the split at 10hpa - also a little more amplified with the anomoly to our nnw than is the case now - it’s not unusual for ec op to be over progressive with strat developments and then to have to row back a little - it’s still showing split to be top down though, contrary to gfs ......

Extended eps remain consistent and the w Russian trough extension is now curing around our block to the western med by day 14/15 .... it surely won’t be long before we see our block cut off from the Azores and any upstream amplification .............

that's what we will be looking for in the north pacific but the feb SSW occurred on the 11 th feb. we began to see gfs ops smelling the fi coffee around 5 days before - there was the false dawn on ecm of some fi nirvanas showing around 20th feb - winter didn't arrive until around 26th. we are still some days from expecting to see a response to this ssw if we get a QTR

i wouldn't be looking for specifics for the uk yet karlos - just viewing the NH evolutions will show that something could well be afoot in the modelling ……. if so, will take more time to settle down

Yes, i detect a step change in the gefs low res ………..

i thought it was crap ………...

Karl - I think a lot of this is based on one Exeter update - I wouldn’t be making any assumptions until fri/sat issue after the next ec 46 has been digested In the meantime, we have a big warming and a marked slowing of the zonal winds high up approaching fast - it’s more than feasible that the modelling will catch up with this once it’s under way

Might I suggest reading page 1 of the thread as a kick off ?

I generally trust glosea on the strat more than any other model ….. sadly we don't get to see anything of glosea and have to rely on twitter titbits for info.

They have clearly changed the way they write these - used to be quite subtle changes across the week - now it’s almost like a CFS daily run commentary ! (Well not like that but you get the drift) imo, glosea has changed somewhat and this update fits more with the ec46 where the deeper cold set in last third jan