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bluearmy

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Everything posted by bluearmy

  1. bluearmy
    Clusters not out till 22:35 spreads say the upper ridge into s Ireland and wales by day 10 is solid heights west to east across Scotland look less certain (similar to the op)
  2. bluearmy
    Spreads say that the op has some cluster support so I doubt the theory tonight has much credence
  3. bluearmy
    A long long way from anything like that .... we may have caught sight of the bridge but the water hasn’t been located yet
  4. bluearmy
    Extended eps beginning to drift towards a potential scandi ridge beyond two weeks and the Russian trough is looking like it would retrogress under - timing fits in with Exeter’s thoughts re a possible easterly ..... ec 46 due out at 10pm and going to be interesting to see if that fits what glosea must be showing (which must be that possible easterly flow)
  5. bluearmy
    The cluster this op is from was 17% and became the least blocked cluster of the three in the extended ......
  6. bluearmy
    Yes - I promise I didn’t have time to contact CMC and get them to change it
  7. bluearmy
    it’s not going to gain any more traction than that but I don’t see that it has to sink - probably drift in our direction as the trough pulls se
  8. bluearmy
    That’s the anomaly Ali - the high is very uk centric ...... poss just north of the n Ireland coast if you want to pin it down ....
  9. bluearmy
    Sinking where to? - check your crystal ball and let me know ! Eps - 50 members
  10. bluearmy
    Only this place could see an amplification like the icon T180 after days of meh output and be underwhelmed ....
  11. bluearmy
    One was talking about a possible chart several days on from a chart at day 16 ………….a day 16 gfs chart is worth little to begin with and then imagining what it may look like several days later...… im sure you see my point …..
  12. bluearmy
    Concerned that some of you are at the stage where you are extrapolating a day 16 gfs op chart on several more days ........ if you are one of these people then you may need help!
  13. bluearmy
    Gfs fi seems to be modelling a split and then the vortex begins to recover fairly soon after from the top down ......the split isn’t reliably modelled as yet so best watched without any knowledge of the eps position .....
  14. bluearmy
    It would? Just looks like cool zonality to me ..... be excellent on the Scottish hills but that’s what happens a lot in a normal winter .....
  15. bluearmy
    Exeter trying to calm the excitement a tad ......
  16. bluearmy
    A vain attempt to stop the express pinning this wintry prediction on them ! now it’s easterly ..... a few days ago it was northerly ...... it’s a bit less confident in its wording too but the message broadly remains the same ....
  17. bluearmy
    Need to bear in mind that predicating your strat forecast solely on gfs is not a great starting point ..... exeter will have eps and glosea - lets see if their tone changes in an hour or so
  18. bluearmy
    Eps mean says uk centric ......... let’s see how varied the clusters are to see if the mean is a reasonable place days 10/15 the spread at day 10 shows just to our west up towards Iceland as being pretty solid for the upper ridge extension
  19. bluearmy
    no more than yesterday’s 12z run. But clearly more than the gefs my mid lat high plump seems pretty safe but where it leads is the question .....obviously the gefs would steer more towards a sceuro, e Atlantic or sausage shaped scandi (best case for coldies) as options .... e Atlantic is my current favoured route
  20. bluearmy
    Btw, the gfs op does have a split - despite what the temps seem to show - not a big split but it’s a split and it shows further down aswell - check on instant weather maps before assuming from the raw temps i don’t necessarily agree with the gefs - the eps look more ridgy at day 10 and don’t have the same low anomaly as the gefs later on
  21. bluearmy
    Anyone expecting to see height rises in the n Atlantic (Iceland west) in the 10/16 day period - the GEFS say impossible with low Greenland anomolys
  22. bluearmy
    http://brunnur.vedur.is/kort/ec-ens/2018/
  23. bluearmy
    Very Doubtful but at 1000 feet on west Swiss border, you could easily get snowed in with standard winter weather ....
  24. bluearmy
    ecm 12z shows 8c at that timescale so not far away ........
  25. bluearmy
    Indeed and a few here are putting the cart before the horse ..........
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