Jump to content
Will it snow? 7 day forecast Weather Radar Will it be cold?
Snow?
Local
Radar
Cold?

bluearmy

Members
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    16,661

  • Joined

  • Last visited

  • Days Won

    46

 Content Type 

Everything posted by bluearmy

  1. bluearmy
    Yes - that’s right Stewart - ending 42 days (not beginning!)
  2. bluearmy
    If I had to make a punt on first few days of jan then the evolution of the gfsp fi would be in the ball park - could take another amplification to get there compared to this run ...........
  3. bluearmy
    So it’s a good thing according to that sample of data ....... approx 75% below normal temps for mid feb to end March according to that
  4. bluearmy
    Just looks to me like we have a mid lat high around us in a holding pattern and at some point there is a drop off of the low heights to the north so that the next amplification off the ESB raises our ridge - to our west, north or northeast is the question ..... still confused as to why people get so hung up on conditions on the 25th December ..........it’s just another day meteorologically speaking .......
  5. bluearmy
    Depends if you believe the gefs ........ infact, most of the models haven’t covered themselves in glory with the MJO forecasts this last month ...... fwiw, the bias corrected gefs stalls in reasonable amplification phase 5 as is the current cross model trend
  6. bluearmy
    the same arhu - this mornings Berlin is yesterday’s noon run .... I posted it from another site anyway, the 00z run is on the same page, a little less amplified and the split at 10hpa delayed around 36 hours. Again, splitting from the top rather than the bottom (this a major difference between the ec and gfs which splits upwards and obviously promotes uncertainty )
  7. bluearmy
    I posted this yesterday Arhu? anyway, yesterday’s ec op is confirmed technical ssw by day 10 (as expected ) and the heights at the very top are crazy split at that timescale
  8. bluearmy
    Five equally supported clusters to day 8 MWB ... trop modelling maybe struggling a bit .... want to see the slowing zonal winds on that ec op run to see how they downwell .....could be an explanation
  9. bluearmy
    just means previous ops are still on the table ..... the 00z suite had no clusters past day 10 and the spread at day 10 means that there was too much variation post day 10 for the model to show only six defined clusters
  10. bluearmy
    The ecm spreads show the previous ops with the systems heading west to east are still evident in the eps
  11. bluearmy
    Actually I see that as part of the jigsaw .... the Russian trough slowly backing west and undercutting the block with the Atlantic trough also coming east below .... the extended eps showing this solution again ....it’s not quick I’m afraid but hopefully the surface and lower layers can cool under a stagnant block for a week/ 10 days
  12. bluearmy
    Do you think it will verify below the gfs at the relevant timescale ? indeed - worth checking out my post in the strat thread .....
  13. bluearmy
    Hot off the press ..... ec op 12z is different .... split at 10hpa begins at T210 and this downwells to 30hpa by day 10 Note the placement of that ridging ....... I wonder If that’s where it will settle in the trop a week or so later .....
  14. bluearmy
    Strat split on the 12z not as gung ho as the 06z but still there
  15. bluearmy
    Gfs upstream looking more relaxed by ..........
  16. bluearmy
    Not sure if I’m right but I believe the 06z suite was the first gefs run to get the mean reversal down to 30hpa - New Year’s Day
  17. bluearmy
    That’s cos it’s for Boxing Day
  18. bluearmy
    We can’t see the clusters on the ec 46 - perhaps some week 3/4 clusters are getting the block a little further nw than the mean - it was over Greenland by week 4. the run jumps around a lot, day by day so I expect those clusters are required to make sense of it Exeter aren’t seeing a cold flow before the end of week 2 which is when gfs and gefs run to .... any frigid charts showing on current output are not in line with their thinking which is a block in our vicinity
  19. bluearmy
    Latter part not available for free afaik
  20. bluearmy
    He is preparing for jan/feb as he is nearly 500 feet asl.....
  21. bluearmy
    It wasn’t underwhelming Karlos - people were simply not comparing apples and apples - didn’t help that the week 3 set up was completely different to previous runs with the nw European block weeks 4/5 through 7 continue to look like the weatherbell anomoly chart I posted last week - think of a classic late seventies winter set up .......
  22. bluearmy
    Yesterday’s ec op 12z was 3.97m/s at day 10. This mornings run continues to sink and stretch the spv so I expect tomorrows Berlin update will show a technical ssw by day 10
  23. bluearmy
    Previous ec 46 runs (whilst being different week 3 and 4) didn’t bring the cold until after week 4 so this renewal is more progressive with the cold by brining it in weeks 3 /4
  24. bluearmy
    Still weeks five and six to come out remember that previous runs had troughing just to our west weeks two thru four so to see the block replacing that low anomoly for weeks three and four shows that the model isn’t to be relied upon !
  25. bluearmy
    That week 4 low anomoly is broad and does looks a bit west based neg NAO ..... i guess the pattern does show that the heights have to retrogress which means we see a cold flow as the block heads nw and the low anomolys could be cold enough for us i guess the fact that it’s showing HLB mid jan onwards is continuity from previous output .......
×
×
  • Create New...