bluearmy

In the short term they could well be a pain but I see them either retrogressing as a mid Atlantic ridge is finally pumped up or extending northeast and eventually being undercut

I expect if we had access to the modelling that Exeter do then we too would be excited ........ the stuff we can see isn’t showing us the route to deep cold just yet ..... it feasible that the met office modelling is also headed in the same direction as the final blocks are put into their expected places for the scenario that the cold glosea and ec 46 clusters show ...... but we can’t see that route so we remain in a state of ‘meh’. Will be notable if/when the 30 dayer drops its suggestion that the onset could be brought forward to the turn of the year

Don’t confuse things though ....... people will predict that the models will show stuff to get excited about - hence this place is busy ......... but the reality could just be a couple of frosts and a short sharp snow event like we are currently having ...

Anywhere from mid Atlantic across to sceuro - yes

Ens have a chunk of vortex travelling from the Asian side to Canada on our side of the pole during week 2 - that increases the Atlantic jet - hence lots of runs which have an active Atlantic at that timescale ... chances of a greeny ridge which copes with that are limited and we’ve already seem scandi ridging struggling thus far to cope and keep us in the cold air - with the Siberian ridge for support I could see it surviving but we don’t have that as yet we may get there via wedges and sliders or runners into the base of a cold trough but yet to see convincing evidence on these scenarios

looks to me like MOGREPS must also have a blocked cluster for the back end of the year so they are keeping their options open re the onset of blocking. they are obviously confident re the change to proper cold and its when rather than if ……..

there are ec clusters that could loosely fit with that gfs solution days 8/10, the usual op tease is too overstate the pattern at that range and then dilute it as time ticks down certajnly the flatter ec op is not necessarily the favoured option of the suite extended clusters are pretty indecisive offering a three way option of quite different solutions

The modelling continues to tease - don’t expect a swift to be flicked on dec 31 though ... by mid jan would be a good place to start and hopefully will be sooner

You should have just left it there ! each op run seems to have a different theme in the day 5 thru 8 range which trends towards something consistent on gfs around Xmas but not clear on the other models

Seeing the global ec46 shows it headed close to the WeatherBell winter anomoly forecast by week 6 - the 00z eps were further north than the 12z with the pattern so perhaps weeks. 3 and 4 could be suppressed a bit more than the model shows which could mean the storm track by week 6 is a little south of where it shows WeatherBell DJF anom9ly

I like the general pattern - displace it a few hundred miles south and you have a seventies winter!

The pub run manages to clutch defeat from the jaws of victory .........

It’s not the former as it isn’t going to happen until after Boxing Day .......... if it happens ......

I would say that’s as pro a cold/snow forecast on the 30 dayer since early.nov 2009 or 2010 (can’t remember which)

Happy with the ec46 update - high heights and slp to the northeast edging from scandi to Greenland weeks 3 through 6 with the storm track into Europe to our south - possibly edging a little too far north for comfort later on but we will take that for a third consecutive good run

The extended eps are dropping the low anomaly into Europe with higher ones appearing above ..... with the Atlantic jet remaining active we would presumably tend towards slider territory .....

i think further warmings such as this will keep the vortex displaced longer but it would return and strengthen as soon as they eased off - we need the wave two hit courtesy of further trop amplification to bring the fella down ……...

interesting that we will have see two of these within a couple weeks of each other and precious little wintry conditions as a consequence

its mid December ……. we were here a couple years ago with good sypnotics but poor continental uppers ……………….. pretty sure the atlantic was quieter then too

QTR via a split rather than displacement NWS ec op looks flatter upstream than ukmo/gfs - more akin to gem …… could still be a decent fi if the upstream cavalry can be held back to avoid phasing …….

If only we could get a proper wintry looking chart like this to verify ......

i'm inclined to make a call here that until we see the effects of either the Alaskan ridge (slowing down the upstream pattern) or an SSW quick trop response, that the atlantic will never relent for long enough to allow nw Europe to receive deep cold uppers (for long enough to bring proper wintry surface conditions) - in the meantime, the nwp will throw out lots of pretty patterns and keep us enthralled with 'potential'

@Daniel Smith Have you hacked into Exeter’s computers ..... glosea charts are tough to come by .....

Was just looking at those clusters and wondering which one fits Exeter’s latest musings .... possibly cluster 1 but I feel that the 00z suite doesn’t fit with the latest glosea run ....their musings becoming ever more indicative of a proper wintry spell in the new year .....10pm tonight we will be checking weeks 3 and 4 on the ec 46!