bluearmy

Indeed - the extended mean offers low surface pressure for nw Europe in general and a broadly mobile flow off the Atlantic - clusters will show more in a couple hours as the mean looks pretty flat

Looking at the spreads, I expect cluster 2 from last night to have grown ............cluster 2 was the less good of the three and more gfsp from this morning

That NH plot at day 10 is superb for wintry prospects .... the vortex has moved to the Asian side and the Azores about to pump up a another Atlantic ridge with upstream jet looking abject for the time of year and no Canadian vortex to invigorate it that won’t verify but the broad scale pattern is expected note that the gfsp goes awol with the undercut phasing too far north (eps cluster 30% yesterday so not to be dismissed) and gem is awol for the second consecutive 00z run one final thing that has caught my eye is gfs and gfsp end week two are both consistently generating a TS in the nw Pacific whilst it won’t be a sig feature, will be interesting to see it interact with the vortex over there if it recurves n ...... seen complete hemispheric splits from features like that acting as a a catalyst before

Ec op variations on a theme post day 7 so tough to work out if the op is leading us down the correct route or messing about with solutions and we should be following the spreads or clusters - up to this point the op has been the one to follow .......

Clusters interesting - the slightly less amplified ridge now 50/50 against the op amplified - the less amplified doesn’t allow the undercut but it is scandi ridge blocked - there is a 30% cluster that pushes the Atlantic through at too high a latitude with the scandi ridge too far ne. The op undercut cluster is 45%. Beyond day 10 there is still plenty of fun to be had .......

He means the monster low that was on the 12z to our west

still here ......... clearly it’s going cold and clearly we get a scandi upper ridge ......maybe it could ironically end up a bit too far north and then drift east allowing the undercut to get more traction into the uk and the potential cold period could last only a few days with limited. opportunity for snow ..... but that’s all beyond reasonable model guidance timescale so tomorrow’s runs remain compelling viewing ..... it could end up a historic december week or potentially longer if things go our way ............

looks more wintry than the raw data - some snow on the northern hills and maxes 2 to 6 c north to south would feel v cold though

i do like a mid December sausage me …………….. always good in the run up to xmas ………………...

understand that but surely as time ticks down and the models come into relative agreement at day 5, you should adjust your date out another day ??

T114 stuie - this sunday way too early for tipping points …….. the ecm day 7 chart is quite significant tonight for me - its not so often that ecm day 7 is horribly wrong when it has a choice to make on which route its going and has decent cross model support on a solution.

I can ask my seven year old to draw something - as likely to be correct as any model at ten days out ....

Only two hours until an intriguing ecm op day 7 ..........

No one knows what the model will show day 7/8 because a) day 7 isn’t out for hours and we see very little of it b) day 8 doesn’t exist on the model !

We need the banter thread back ......

Ukmo day 5 looks a little better than the 00z did

Icon finally finds the amplification but places it a bit too far to the east .....

No problem Phil - better bring a coat though ........ just in case

They have all the data in the world but they cannot forecast based on gut feeling and amateur model watching experience (obviously they use their professional experience) - otherwise they would have seen next weeks scandi ridge like some of us did .......

'we may see' 'a lot of uncertainty'

I would suggest the most relevant part of the gefs 06z run is the placement of the mean TPV at the back end - more strat coupled than we have seen of late ?

He did say the evolution is likely to be slower than the models may see it initially ...

And fits with extended eps

But fails to disrupt ese effectively which brings the less cold air north - high risk = high reward fwiw, I think this gfsp in the day 9/11 period currently portrays where the most likely route forward sits

Given those final charts from Stewart I may as well post the weatherbell anomaly chart for DJF as it fits pretty well this has been consistent from them since September