bluearmy

did you mean to post the control aaron ???

Not within the next two weeks NWS? The monster low at T300 won’t exist like that in any case so the run beyond the sceuro ridge is likely nonsense

That’s the bias corrected gefs Sebastian... other models mostly keep it outside though without big amplitude

Your interpretation is literal but the mean slp is never ever going to verify - if you assume the Scandi high solution will, then that mean would clearly have an easterly drift based on those mean heights

there is so much variance at the moment ed that the mean gives an indication of how amplified we might go - years of doing this gives you an idea of what the likely scenario of a mean amplification would be in reality ….

It seems pretty obvious that any relaxation of the jet will allow for an amplification …… whilst some runs were showing that to be early next week, it seems more likely to be later …. if we don't get lucky it may not be at all!, however, i would be very surprised if we have to wait beyond the latter part of next week to see the amplification begin and then it becomes a question of where that will occur - current favourite is to end up over scandi (could be sceuro, could be up through the uk, could even be to our west). so whether we end up in a md dec position where we go proper wintry, surface cold under an inversion, dull and grey or quite pleasant (could be cold and clear, could be mild and clear) remains the big question...……

Looks like it was very weak till mid dec as original post ........that’s what I recall also

Ec mean (and op over our side NH) look like a decent phase 8 mjo representation...... if you think tha the ec output isn’t showing blocking at high latitudes then I’m confused ........ The eps/gems/gefs broadly on the same page through week 2. vortex settling ne of Canada and stretching across to east Asia (as widely predicted). Questions remain re Western European heights and how strong the jet will be into the Atlantic and at what latitude. Blocking to our north/northeast is likely but clearly it won’t be across the entire area ...... just need to roll a double six to see charts as we saw on yesterday’s gfs 18z come to fruition ..... it helps that we do have two dice !

the mean (which we see) is fairly consistent beyond week 4 as it generally tends to climatology ........ I usually take note of week 3 (which has some possibilities) and week 4 (which doesn’t though the clusters could be anticyclonic across us) just a part of the puzzle

The 18z shows what I consider to be the most likely route to deep cold by mid dec - Iberian ridge headed north and the arctic high drawing it up over a cut off chunk of low heights. If this solution doesn’t happen then we are relying on a griceland ridge and given how rare they are, to find two within a month would be pretty unusual!! id call it 50/50 at the moment

I want to be convinced by a model re what it does with the Iberian upper ridge post day 9/10. It will be there for sure

Nothing obvious on the ec46 out to week 5 to raise the excitement of the coldies .......

Euro troughing will probably remain the conundrum as we head through week 2 ......I don’t trust the extended ens (all models) in this regard ..... the tail and the donkey remain the best forecasting tool for the time being ........

The extended eps look like they are likely to deliver more than the 2 clusters we saw earlier ..... or the spread is so vast it may give up and just generate the one !

-4 at day 9 steve funnily enough that’s marginally below what we measured yesterday !

I think it was day 8/9 where the difference showed .......

go back and read the updates for now from early November …………………… its not an exact science …….

Cohen was talking about a gfs op forecast for 9th dec ventrice is talking about an event predicted end this week of course we could assume that the latter may not happen if the former occurs but the question needs to be asked if the upper strat will become coupled with the lower as we head through December …...

Twice - mon 00z and thurs 00z Available shortly after 10pm mon and thurs

The eps clusters look fairly binary later on one with a stonking w euro ridge which is slowly trending towards Scandi and would probably have a developing e euro trough - broadly as gfs op 06z the other cluster looks cool troughy - probably sinking slowly over time no idea how the spreads are around these clusters but the Dutch ems reveal some members would have drawn in a cold flow by day 15

Climate models? No idea what he is on about - hopefully isn’t referencing the CFSv2 to back up his arguement !! anyway, this time next week we will hopefully have sight of the updated ec seasonal ..... it backed away somewhat for me euro cold on the November issue but we saw the met office model head in the opposite direction.

The seasonal models haven’t run for Dec yet ??????

Extended eps continue to head as expected .....

Incidentally, the ec op at day 10 is pretty well bang on the money wrt the mean eps anomolys at day 10

the behaviour of arctic heights is a fickle thing to predict ..... I doubt the ec op will do us many favours late on as the complete vortex split leaves a lot of the Canadian with nowhere to go but ‘spew’ itself into the Atlantic ..... we need the n Pacific/Alaskan ridge to have less latitude, allowing the East Asian sector to draw some of the Canadian nw towards it . be interesting to see what high res does with the split though - a full on fella might be fun in the longer term ...... EDIT: we could work with day 10 moving forward as the Pacific side looks like closing up and the Alaskan ridge has punched a huge wedge of additional heights into the equation which will help in time ........