bluearmy

I think we have to wait to see the route beyond the ridge before we can ascertain how the ridge will affect us in that regard, things remain fluid - the favoured route from the ops currently being the undercut - but how far ne against the block will any undercut get - we were here a couple weeks ago and the Atlantic ended up overpowering completely - this looks more likely to be a better fight as heights to our south look better however - this isn’t certain and if the jet comes in in a more w-e rather than being diverted se then the undercut could end up being messy as the precip pushes more W/e rather than sw/ne sliding nature into the cold and then we have to work out if the cold will be entrenched enough to deliver. Clusters currently 65/35 in favour of the undercut - within that cluster there will be good and not so good outcomes beyond day 10 we are back to 6 clusters and whilst four of these are below 15%, it shows that picking the route forward is fraught with uncertainty- note that within this a mid Atlantic ridge moving slowly west to east around day12/14 looks likely so even if things go pear shaped more interesting output will remain on the table

No idea re glosea - think that’s quite back winter loaded from what I’ve read

And trends towards the seasonal winter modelling by week 6 i will post the weather bell seasonal model output in the winter thread - been consistent for months and ec46 certainly trending that way all looking very interesting indeed

getting really close to squeaky bum time now we are lost gem and icon has never really wanted to play on this easterly .......make a note on that if it fails Gfs phases the low heights too far north (as it has more than once ) gfsp and ecm consistent Ukmo could go the way of the binary 25% cluster from yesterday’s 12z eps in the 6/7 day period with poorer amplification but whilst there were two extra ones appear at day 8, the poor coldie cluster remained at 20% so we would need to be really unlucky to avoid the scandi ridge ...... uncertain if it plays out with the very cold uppers reaching us and sustaining for more than a snap.

That’s about right ...wonder if we will see any consequences of events in the strat later in the ec46 run ........

sorry ........ fell asleep .......did i miss anything ....... encouraged by the ec spreads from the 12z. im currently a little nervous that we could see the ridge get way north and phasing occur further north as has been the case on a couple of gfs op runs recently ... after all, going back to the beasterly from last winter and the cold pool from last month, both involved the low heights accelerating across the meridian east to west in a way not seen by the ops at day 10/9 but picked up by ecm around day 8/7. the dncroaching undercut has become the theme of the day .....that fits with many recent eps control runs and presents the largest risk/largest reward route to snow events the scandi ridge seems secure but how it affects the uk remains uncertain .... will certainly go cold but how cold and will it go snowy??? I’m afraid we’re gojng to have to wait another day or two to know for sure what theme the continental flow will take - then we can begin to look for detail

Interestingly it’s quite similar to the eps anoms but given that there are five clusters the stuff you mention about the gefs is likely true of the eps !

Slightly less amplified but within a margin of error looks like it may go a bit more over runny in fi based on the jet at day 8 but it’s well in the general ball game re coldie expectations

Because they’re nuts .......

Gfsp making a decent job of the fi Atlantic profile as we would currently expect - however it’s more than likely that it’s overdoing the low to our sw

Clusters say day 8 is where the uncertainty really kicks in - need to keep the ship steady for another 36 hours .....

Ian’s comments are for the winter thread methinks - especially as they relate moreso to the lattter part of the season

The spreads say it remains v uncertain - however, I would await the spreads before declaring the op a sypnotic outlier .... control very snowy undercutting story ...not that it matters particularly.....

Early one from the eps is more am9lified day 8 and the upper low gets cut off day 9

I’ve decided I will take the two bouts of sub -15c uppers prior to day 8 in exchange for the positive numbers for day 10 !

That’s six ec ops in which only one has failed to make the scandi ridge effectively (high enough latitude) so important to get the Atlantic to split the flow and undercut if you’re looking for something to last add in the support from the Russian ridge and this is certainly going to attract the interest of those who should know ...... good to see ukmo day 6 is on board

I would say that the 12z eps and spreads are more in line with the 00z op than the 12z ...... uncertainty remains strong from the euro model

Any amplification in th trop will lead to more stress on the strat ........

‘It’s not always that simple’ ......... btw, gefs getting v toasty nw late on ...... vortex v displaced to Siberia and ridge over Canada

By 7-50

Given the clusters out to day 10 both looked amplified but the spread by day9/10 was huge to our north. We want to lose the greens to our north on the spreads and see some blues appear

Ec op better with the Atlantic dropping some troughing to our west - previous run pushed the Azores ne and over ran the ridge it merely illustrates how uncertain the whole nature of the amplification is - best to plump for the blocking over us - covers most bases !

Big frame coming up from ec 12z

Gfsp showing excellent cold pattern consistency ..... I recall it doing that a couple weeks ago .....was wrong to do so ....... oh - also the 06z gefs decision to leave the tpv centre nw Greenland by d16 has gone on the 12z ......

For goodness sake !!!!!!! exeter are speaking about events beginning almost three weeks away maybe we should limit this thread to only referencing the next two weeks ..... infact, as its model discussion, unless you are posting about the long range models, then maybe limit the chat to 16 days as per the modelling