bluearmy

We were? Also, that’s a mean chart - it won’t verify like that - the trough would be more defined somewhere around the low anomoly ....... not without potential .... ec46 due out and looking to see if weeks 6/7 are similar with the tend towards the meto extended with northern blocking and suppressed Atlantic trough into nw Europe

That ICON run makes less of the low day 5 with a less developed feature with two centres

It’s not? T300 Admittedly it’s fairly static for days 10/14

eps mean in the 7/10 day period shows the spreads have uncertainty to our south and southwest ........ plenty to be settled yet and settled doesn’t seem to reflect where we’re headed in the extended period ........

becoming quite interested in how the nw european trough that the extended eps mean has begun to show last couple runs might manifest itself - even if we do miss out on the undercut/slider, a fairly stagnant broad upper trough with coldish uppers could prove to be some fun in December ….

btw, that's a fair old dumping from the occlusion se midlands up the eastern side of the uk next Friday evening

the system coming into the atlantic view on meteociel days 5/6 is crucial to the evolution. slower and therefore not quite so close to the low heights (slower would allow a little ridge to from) would mean its more likely to head east and potentially undercut) that feature is not set in stone - it hasn't even formed in the GOM yet. would expect tomorrows runs to have a good handle on it but even then, not definitive.

if this is the magnitude of the swing back then it wont quite be enough but most of you will be here again in the morning just to check!

hhmmmm …………...with our luck that means a cold spring ……………………..again!

there are enough gefs members finding disruption/undercutting to maintain my interest but whilst the ops continue to take too much split flow ne, its hard to keep the faith on this episode.

indeed - but that merely indicates our chance of having a ticket in the raffle - not much more than that due to our location at the eastern edge of a large warm ocean and the western edge of a huge continent !!

assuming you are correct, how much confidence should you have in models some four weeks away ????

gfsp is not a correction west ……….

blimey sleety - killing him off is a bit of a stretch !

Latest ec seasonal shows the mean winter storm track a bit far north to provide a wintry nirvana - Scotland could do well from this and I believe that each month sees the blocking to the north pushing the jet a little further south ....... still in the game based on this - good signs to our se but not necessarily to our ssw

Really? You need to get another fence then Daniel ......... I would put it no more than 20% now on deep cold although I feel there is a 50/50 chance that we see a snow event as the Atlantic comes through in the transition (which could be quite an extended affair)

The assumption that the scandi ridge giving up quickly on this occasion is not the same as a scandi ridge reappearing in the modelling in a few days time for week 2 is not necessarily correct - I believe Stewart was of the opinion that we will see further scandi ridging this month but he wasn’t saying next weeks offering is going to stay close enough to w scandi to hold the Atlantic back incidentally, enough gefs members in their high res phase keep us on our toes for the next set of runs re the battle being worth watching .....

Just looking back at the past four eps runs and the failure of heights across Greenland is the clear culprit ....probably more of an ingression of low heights from the vortex south across Greenland into the Atlantic trough - this was previously an area of no anomaly or even slightly high anomaly. the results are obvious - the ridge is unable to make enough latitude just east of Greenland, the Atlantic trough becomes even stronger and the rest is clear from the mornings runs. we need another run to set this change in place - the polar field is usually tough to get right for the models ........

remains more fluid than many would hope but that keeps things interesting - not for the first time, Exeter’s better update for coldies proved to be the ‘kiss of death’ for this particular easterly! MOGREPS wasnt good for the easterly according to @essexweather so surprised that they issued what they did ....... maybe was a new run ........looks like upstream could be weakening considerably and as kris pointed out, the polar developments meant an overpowering Atlantic jet push was v likely ....... the pattern is there - it’s just moved ene. it could swing back a bit but it’s quite a way back to bring the majority of the uk into play on this one.

Last month the eps turned out to be correct in predicting the return of the Atlantic despite many feeeling the blocking would hold - but it had support of the op (bar one run). The 12z is the first op which has blasted the Atlantic through and there was a decent size cluster reflecting the previous ops. So tomorrow mornings ec op is of significance to me. A repeat of the back end of the noon op run and the ec mean and spread will confirm the strong likelihood that we will see a fairly swift demise of this scandi ridge but it’s likely to be a brief respite from cold. It remains more than feasible that the 00z op could revert to a more undercutting look

Extended eps show a continuing trend of troughing over nw Europe and generally low slp over w Europe as a whole ....... if the block puts up a decent fight at the outset then week 2 could be a lot more interesting than currently looks likely as the lw trough disprupts in our vicinity

very little between the upper air pattern yesterdays ec 12 z and todays. it is consistent

I guess they want to offer charts that may verify rather than a mean - with the mean you need to know the spreads to get a feel for where the more reliable part of the mean is. It’s complicated !

broadly agree with the sentiment ed but any run that shows a system that deep and defined is going to be skewed - the chance that the system verifies like that being slim Gfs and gfsp are certainly going down the phasing across n uk route rather than the second undercut - haven’t checked in detail but are we losing the e euro trough as the low heights are ejected way west by the reverse flow (think early March and last month) which leads to phasing occurring at too high a latitude for us to sustain the deep cold